UKRAINE: PM TYMOSHENKO TO LEAD DELEGATION FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000109

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SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/PRA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: UP PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PM TYMOSHENKO TO LEAD DELEGATION FOR
SAAKASHVILI INAUGURATION

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons
1.4(b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: President Yushchenko has asked Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to lead the Ukrainian delegation
for the January 20 inauguration of Georgian President Elect
Mikhail Saakashvili. Although some here were surprised that
Yushchenko was not attending himself, both he and Tymoshenko
have very close warm personal relations with the Georgian
President cemented during Ukraine's 2004-05 Orange
Revolution. Tymoshenko will lead a delegation of six,
although as of late January 18, the Ukrainian MFA still did
not know who would be accompanying the PM to Tbilisi. This
will be Tymoshenko's first foreign trip since becoming Prime
Minister -- a testament to both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's
belief that it is essential to show strong support for their
Georgian counterparts and the fact that relations with
Georgia will remain a top GOU foreign policy priority. End
Summary.

TYMOSHENKO TO REPRESENT UKRAINE AT INAUGURATION
-------------- --


2. (C) According to Georgian DCM Zurab Dvalishvili, the
Georgian Government is happy to welcome PM Tymoshenko as
Ukraine's representative for the inauguration. Dvalishvili
said that the Georgian side did not know why Tymoshenko would
attend rather the Yushchenko, but speculated that since
President Yushchenko had visited Georgia just before the
January 5 Presidential elections to lend his personal support
to President Saakashvili, Tymoshenko's visit might be a way
to show broad Ukrainian governmental support for Georgia.
Dvalishvili quipped that maybe during his visit, Yushchenko
had asked Saakashvili to act as a sort of marriage counselor
or therapist to help them with their volatile relationship
since President Saakashvili has a close personal relationship
with both. Joking aside, Dvalishvili emphasized
Saakashvili's excellent relations with both Ukrainian leaders
and Georgia's desire to work closely with them to deepen
bilateral economic and political relations.


3. (C) As of late afternoon on January 18, the make-up of
the Ukrainian delegation was still unknown. MFA Georgia desk
officer Oleksandr Pushkarskiy said the delegation will be no
more than six members, but still did not know who would go
with Tymoshenko. Pushkarskiy confirmed that President
Yushchenko had deliberately decided that PM Tymoshenko's
first trip abroad as PM should be to Georgia. Pushkarskiy
said Tymoshenko plans to travel to Tbilisi early on January
20 and return the same evening. Georgian DCM Dvalishvili
said the Georgian side is working hard to arrange bilateral
meetings on the margins of the inauguration, but was
uncertain whether anything could be arranged. Dvalishvili
blamed the PM's hectic schedule. Pushkarskiy said Tymoshenko
would like to spend more than one day in Tbilisi, but her
schedule could not accommodate a longer stay. (Embassy note:
Tymoshenko has a busy week of travel scheduled, including
trips to Moscow on January 23 and to Brussels on January
28-29. End Note.)

WARM RELATIONS BASED ON MUTUAL INTERESTS AND RESPECT
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Dvalishvili said that Ukraine and Georgia had very
close relations and there were positive feelings between
Georgians and Ukrainians on multiple levels. Dvalishvili
pointed to Ukraine and Georgia's similar interests and the
fact that both face similar "unfair treatment" from Russia.
Dvalishvili stated that if you listen to Russian news
commentary and substituted Yushchenko or Tymoshenko for
Saakashvili or vice versa, the sarcastic and belittling
statements are almost indistinguishable. Dvalishvili does
not underestimate the personal support the leaders give to
one another, jokingly referring to it as "crying on each
other's shoulders". Turning serious, Dvalishvili says that
it is no secret that Saakashvili, Yushchenko, and Tymoshenko
want Russia to stay out of their internal affairs and treat
them with respect; not as petulant leaders of vassal states.
Dvalishvili said the three leaders generally agree on policy
matters such as: economic and political integration with the
West; the importance of attracting Western investment;
liberalization and diversification of their economies;
decreasing dependence on Russian energy; and entry into NATO.
In addition to personal warmth, the common vision that
Saakashvili, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have for their
countries reinforces close Georgian-Ukrainian bilateral
relations.


5. (C) Both the Georgian Embassy and the MFA believe that
Georgian-Ukrainian relations will only continue to get
better. Dvalishvili said Georgia and Ukraine have already
agreed to place the highest priority on establishing a Kerch
to Poti ferry line. Both the GOU and GOG desire to increase
the volume of trade between their respective countries.
Dvalishvili believes the ferry line and the ensuing increased
trade will quickly become a reality under the Tymoshenko
government. The MFA's Pushkarskiy confirmed that this is
also a GOU priority. Dvalishvili noted that establishing
pipelines for Central Asian oil and gas via Georgia and
Ukraine into Europe will be discussed in detail during future
meetings. Pushkarskiy confirmed that the GOU views further
discussion on this issue as a priority, but that these
discussions are preliminary at this point.


6. (C) Dvalishvili dismissed the possibility of former PM
Yanukovych and the Party of Regions playing an unhelpful role
in strengthening bilateral relations. Dvalishvili said
although Yanukovych may have pro-Russian leanings, he is not
anti-Georgian. Dvalishvili cited a Georgian proverb noting
you can pick your friends but not your neighbors. He said
Saakashvili's recent statements about a constructive
relationship with Russia should be viewed in that light. All
political players understand that Russia cannot just be
ignored in spite of the negative role it often plays in the
region. Dvalishvili said Georgia prefers an "Orange" openly
pro-Georgian government, but said that relations with the
previous government were cordial. Dvalishvili expressed
confidence that if the opposition movement in Georgia came to
power, it would pursue the same policy toward Ukraine as the
Saakashvili government's current policy. He said it was
difficult to find any politician in either county who will
say something negative about the bilateral relationship. The
MFA agreed, with Pushkarskiy confirming that, across the
political spectrum, there no disagreement regarding Ukraine's
policy toward Georgia.

MULTILATERAL REGIONAL INITIATIVES SLOW
--------------


7. (C) In addition to close bilateral relations, both
Ukraine and Georgia consider GUAM an important relationship.
Dvalishvili noted that Georgia is working closely with
Ukraine on their GUAM initiatives and to help make the GUAM
secretariat a reality; however, GUAM can only move as fast as

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its slowest partner. Pushkarskiy said the GOU is ready and
willing to move forward in the GUAM framework, especially in
the economic sphere. He admits, however; Moldova's
unwillingness to fully participate makes pushing GUAM
initiatives forward difficult. He said former FM Yatsenyuk
was frustrated by GUAM for this reason, and preferred working
with Georgia directly on a bilateral basis. According to
Pushkarskiy, current FM Ohryzhko has a similar approach,
feeling that working bilaterally with Georgia is good policy
in its own right and currently the best way to push GUAM
forward.


8. (C) Dvalishvili acknowledged that Moldova has funding
problems, but he believes the lack of Moldovan movement on
GUAM is not a funding issue. Dvalishvili blamed the Soviet
style leadership of Moldovan President Voronin for making
progress difficult. In his view, although facing similar
crippling economic measures and rough political treatment
from Russia, Voronin, unlike Yushchenko or Saakashvili,
decided that appealing to Moscow for concessions was a better
tactic than trying to diversify its markets and decrease
dependency on Russia. Dvalishvili says the GOU and GOG
realize that GUAM irritates Russia; however, they are willing
to more forward as fast as possible on GUAM issues.
Dvalishvili speculated that Voronin is dragging his feet in
order to not irritate Russia while he is negotiating for
economic concessions and a solution to the Transnistria
conflict.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor