PARLIAMENT'S GRILLING MORE FIZZLE THAN SIZZLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000043 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KWMN PINR KU SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT'S GRILLING MORE FIZZLE THAN SIZZLE REF: A. KUWAIT 0035 ¶B. KUWAIT 1762 ¶C. KUWAIT 1760 ¶D. KUWAIT 1590 ¶E. KUWAIT 1562 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alan G. Misenheimer for Reasons 1.4 (b ) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 8 and 9, Islamist MP SAAD Al-Shraye "grilled" (publicly questioned) Education Minister Nouriya Al-Sabeeh before the National Assembly. Al-Shraye's accusations against the Minister were weak and vague, and Al-Sabeeh defended herself ably on the Assembly floor. Parliament will vote on a "no-confidence" motion concerning the Minister in two weeks, during which the GOK will likely attempt to marshal parliamentary support for her. While the embattled Al-Sabeeh may have boosted her chances of retaining her cabinet seat, an Amiri decree dissolving Parliament -- sometime after the 01/11-12 POTUS visit -- remains highly likely. END SUMMARY. Islamist MP's Arguments Fizzle -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 8 and 9, Islamist MP Dr. SAAD Al-Shraye "grilled" Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education Nouriya Al-Sabeeh in Parliament. Al-Sabeeh is Kuwait's only remaining female minister. Al-Shraye accused the minister of misleading MPs, committing administrative and legal wrongdoing, violating national mores and contributing to the deterioration of Kuwait's education system. During his interpellation, Al-Shraye failed to produce any compelling evidence against Al-Sabeeh, relying on feeble complaints and hearsay. Minister Al-Sabeeh, in contrast, mounted a spirited defense, systematically refuting Al-Shraye's accusations and presenting her vision and performance in a positive light. Due to the historically confrontational nature of grillings, some observers predicted that the Amir would dissolve Parliament rather than allow Al-Sabeeh to be publicly excoriated (ref A). The surprisingly respectful and cordial tone of the Sabeeh grilling -- despite widely reported indications that Shraye planned to humiliate her by showing film of "mixed" (i.e. boys and girls together) student parties -- may have prevented this grilling from constituting a final tripwire for dissolution. ¶3. (C) At the conclusion of the grilling, a mix of ten Islamist and pro-government MPs requested a "no-confidence" motion against Al-Sabeeh, which Parliament will deliberate in about two weeks' time. The no-confidence motion would require support from 25 of the 48 MPs to pass, in which case Sabeeh would be dismissed from the cabinet. The GOK is now considering its options and maneuvering to strike deals with MPs. If the GOK cannot muster enough support for Al-Sabeeh, the Amir is likely to dissolve Parliament. The Amir will meet with MPs from various political blocs on January 13 in a routine but critical planning session. Parliamentary Dissolution Still Likely -------------- ¶3. (C) While Al-Sabeeh may survive this grilling and retain her position (and indeed will both meet and dine with President Bush on January 12 during his stay in Kuwait),the National Assembly remains on a probably course to dissolution within the next few weeks. We believe the Amir actually signed a decree dissolving the Parliament on January 6, but then held it back as the PM continued to haggle with MPs. Post believes the Amir will use this decree as leverage over Parliament in the short term. The Amir conveyed word to NEA A/S Welch (via Salem Al Sabah, the Kuwaiti Ambassador in Washington) that he would not dissolve Parliament during or in the immediate wake of the upcoming POTUS visit to Kuwait. ¶4. (C) Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) CEO SAAD Al-Shuwaib also predicted that a dissolution was likely but not inevitable. During a January 8 meeting with CDA, he cited the recent passage of tax reform legislation (ref B) in arguing that Parliament may be changing its behavior in the face of threats of dissolution. Nevertheless, he lamented the MPs' preference for grilling ministers instead of passing legislation and cited the many draft laws still awaiting deliberation. Al-Shuwaib said a recent Al-Qabas public opinion poll demonstrates that most Kuwaitis are fed up with this Parliament. ¶5. (C) In a conversation with Charge on January 8, U/S for KUWAIT 00000043 002 OF 002 Higher Education Dr. Rasha Al Sabah opined that a dissolution of Parliament, although likely, would yield little. She expects that the same cadre of MPs would be re-elected, with women finding it difficult to win election under the new districting system. Al Sabah also criticized the dual nature of the minister's responsibilities and advocated a split between the Education and Higher Education portfolios. Al Sabah was concerned about another potential grilling of Al-Sabeeh, this time originating with the opposition Popular Action Bloc and dealing with Al-Sabeeh's handling of her higher education portfolio. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) POTUS' imminent visit, combined with the somewhat anticlimactic grilling of the Education Minister, has pushed back the Amiri decision to dissolve Parliament. However, a successful "no-confidence" motion against Al-Sabeeh or additional ministerial grillings will likely trigger a dissolution over coming weeks. End Comment. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * MISENHEIMER