KUWAIT'S AMIR DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT; NEW ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000320 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP DS FOR IP/NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC KMPI KU SUBJECT: KUWAIT'S AMIR DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT; NEW ELECTIONS TO BE HELD MAY 17 REF: A. KUWAIT 0313 ¶B. KUWAIT 0307 ¶C. 07 KUWAIT 1760 Classified By: CDA Alan G. Misenheimer for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 19, Kuwait's Amir opted to dissolve the National Assembly. His decision opens a new chapter in the dysfunctional relationship between the current government and Parliament dating back to June 2006. The Amir is widely expected to set a date for new elections within 60 days (per the constitution),although on several past occasions an Amir has opted to govern by decree (i.e. unconstitutionally) for an extended period. The dissolution had been widely anticipated in Kuwait, in particular after the cabinet offered its resignation on March 16, and is generally viewed as a relief from the ongoing political turmoil. The dissolution and its after-effects will likely have no impact on Kuwaiti foreign policy, or the U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship. Suggested press guidance is included in paragraph 6. End summary. ¶2. (C) On March 19, Amir Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al Sabah opted to dissolve the National Assembly in lieu of accepting his cabinet's mass resignation (ref B). Post sources indicate the Amir will formally announce his decision in a nationally televised address this evening, and that Kuwait will likely hold new parliamentary elections on May ¶17. The dissolution ends a dysfunctional relationship between the current government and Parliament dating back to June 2006. Since its inception, this government has experienced incessant parliamentary intransigence, an inability to pass critical political and social reform legislation, and repeated "grillings" (interpellations) and threats of grillings against its ministers. Within the past year, these grillings prompted one cabinet reshuffle and the resignation of five ministers. ¶3. (SBU) Recently, the GOK attempted to reassert its authority over Parliament by taking up the sword on a number of contentious issues. Specifically, the GOK clashed with Parliament within recent weeks over: -- the threatened grilling of the First Deputy PM/Minister of Defense and the Armed Forces Chief of Staff over a raft of promotions in the MOD; -- the threatened destruction of private structures built on public land; -- a supplemental monthly raise of KD 50 (USD 180) for public sector employees, in addition to a recently-passed KD 120 (USD 432) monthly raise; -- the lifting of parliamentary immunities from two MPs accused of supporting a eulogy for slain Hizballah terrorist leader Imad Mugniyah (ref A) ¶4. (C) According to the Kuwaiti constitution, the Amir must schedule new parliamentary elections within 60 days or the dissolution will be voided and the Assembly reseated. These elections will be the first to utilize the new five constituency system (vice twenty-five). Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak Al Sabah, a royal family insider and government lobbyist, told poloff that he expects the Amir will appoint a similar cabinet after the coming elections and that 70 percent of MPs will be re-elected. Other interlocutors, however, foresee upwards of 50 percent turnover and note that the new constituency system may lead to unpredictable results. If the Amir ignores the constitutional mandate to hold new elections, he may opt to govern by decree (i.e. unconstitutionally) for an indefinite period of time. This has previously occurred on two occasions: from 1976-1981 and from 1986-1992. In the period before the elections, the Amir may pass pending legislation by decree; however, Parliament would need to retroactively approve these decrees when it reconvened. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) This dissolution had been widely anticipated in Kuwait, in particular after the cabinet offered its resignation on March 16, and is generally viewed as a relief from the ongoing political turmoil. It may be overly optimistic, given the inability of many Kuwaiti MPs to do more than constituent pandering, to believe that the new elections will yield a more productive GOK-Parliament relationship. However, the new constituency system will no doubt lead to some new faces in Parliament. Regardless of KUWAIT 00000320 002 OF 002 the outcome, the dissolution and its aftereffects will likely have no impact on Kuwaiti foreign policy, or the U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship. End comment. ¶6. (U) Suggested (IF ASKED) Press Guidance: We have followed closely the relations between Parliament and cabinet in Kuwait and understand the Amir has exercised his constitutional power to dissolve the Assembly and call for new elections. This is an internal political matter that we trust will be resolved in accordance with the provisions of the Kuwaiti constitution. Since May of 2005 when the vote was extended to women, Kuwait has been making important strides in expanding freedom. As a good friend, the United States extends full support to the Government and people of Kuwait at this important time in the political history of the country. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * Misenheimer