MALAYSIAN ECONOMY RESILIENT FOR NOW, SAY ECONOMISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUALA LUMPUR 000966 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR -- WEISEL AND BELL STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE AND EXIMBANK STATE PAS FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO TCURRAN SINGAPORE PASS TO SBAKER USDOC FOR 4430/MAC/EAP/M.HOGGE TREASURY FOR OASIA AND IRS GENEVA FOR USTR E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018 TAGS: EFIN EINV ECON ETRD PGOV MY SUBJECT: MALAYSIAN ECONOMY RESILIENT FOR NOW, SAY ECONOMISTS Classified By: Economic Counselor Matthew J. Matthews for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In the face of the global economic crisis, Malaysia,s central bank has adjusted growth forecast for 2009 down to the 3-4 percent range while private sector economic analysts now expect growth to fall below 3 percent with a chance of recession in 2009 if U.S. demand for Malaysia's exports continued to slide. The diversified Malaysian economy is resilient and banks are well capitalized, according to our contacts, but they see problems as slower growth and falling oil prices could drive Malaysia,s oil-revenue- dependent federal budget deficit to six percent in 2009, substantially higher than the 3.4 percent figure projected when oil sold for $125 per barrel. There are also concerns about potential problems at some of Malaysia,s smaller banks, but these are viewed as manageable. Views on the appointment of Deputy Prime Minister Najib as Finance Minister were mixed but on balance positive for the Malaysian economy, as Najib was perceived as a more decisive leader than Abdullah with a willingness to push reforms. Clearly, Malaysia needs to reform its economic policies if it wants to move forward. However, Najib's level of commitment to reform is an open question, as is the level of support he has to carry it out. His first real test will be his "Economic Stabiliztion Plan" which he is to announce on November 4. This is expected to include liberalizations of foreign investment restrictions in the property and services sectors, but how deep they will go is yet to be seen. End summary. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ¶2. (SBU) Sanjeev Nanavati, Managing Director for Citibank,s Malaysia operations, told Econcouns October 30 that Bank Negara Governor Zeti informed foreign bankers in a morning meeting that it was dropping its estimates for GDP growth to the 3-4 percent range for 2009 due to concerns about the impact of the global economic slowdown. Nanavati said Citi,s internal estimate for GDP growth was below 3 percent for next year. Mohamed Ariff, Executive Director of the Malaysian Institute for Economic Research, agreed that Malaysia was headed for a sharp slowdown despite the fact that export figures for August and September had remained strong. Those export numbers were due in large part to U.S. growth rates of 3.3 percent for the second quarter which helped boost Malaysia's economic growth to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2008. With the U.S. economy slipping into recession, however, Ariff expects 3.9 percent growth for Malaysia in the second half of 2008, resulting in a GDP growth rate of 5.4 percent for the year as a whole. Malaysia had a diversified economy with a large domestic sector, he explained, but it was not completely insulated from the global economy. The global economic crisis would catch up as demand for Malaysian exports wilted. In fact, Ariff predicted a 40 percent chance of a technical recession in Malaysia in the second quarter of 2009 and a two-year period of underperformance at less than 6 percent growth. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT LIMITS FSCIAL OPTIONS ¶3. (SBU) Unfortunately, Ariff said, there was a limit to what the GOM could do on the fiscal side to jump-start the economy. The government had been running a fiscal expansionary policy for the past ten years so most of the projects with good economic multipliers already had been done, other than a few that remained on hold in opposition-controlled states. Moreover, the federal government faced the need for increasing expenditures at a time of decreasing revenues. Describing the GOM as "oil-drunk," Ariff said the federal budget deficit could increase to 6 percent or more over the next year with the decrease in oil prices. Budget projections of a 3.4 percent deficit for 2009 were based on an average price of $125 per barrel. With approximately 40 percent of federal revenue coming from Petronas, the national oil company, Ariff said KUALA LUMP 00000966 002 OF 004 the recent oil price decline to around $60 per barrel would translate to significantly lower federal government revenues during a time when greater federal expenditures are needed to boost the ailing economy. A 6 percent deficit level would weigh heavily on Malaysia's sovereign rating, he said, placing a real limit on fiscal policy space. MALAYSIAN BANKING SECTOR HOLDING UP, FOR NOW ¶4. (SBU) Malysia's financial sector was essentially sound, Ariff said, as it was well capitalized and had a low average level of non-performing loans (NPLs) across the system. However, the level varied widely from bank to bank, with Public Bank and HSBC holding 1.6 and 1.8 percent NPLs respectively and Affinbank and Ambank hovering at around 8 percent, and this was creating problems. As a result, Bank Negara was closely monitoring banks, Ariff explained, calling on the non-executive directors of boards in private to ask how the banks really were doing and whether they had any concerns. To date, Ariff said, the key test facing Bank Negara has been managing the fact that depositors were moving money from the weaker to the stronger banks, leaving the weaker banks cash-strapped and the stronger ones awash with more money than they knew what to do with. The central bank had decided not to force them into further mergers, Ariff said, because the bigger Malaysian banks had "not yet digested" the last round of consolidations in 2000-02. Dr. Yeah Kim Leng, Managing Director and Chief Economist for Rating Agency Malaysia, agreed. It was much more likely that Bank Negara would prop up the weaker banks than let them fail. At present, Yeah said Bank Negara has deemed it sufficient &to encourage8 inter-bank lending, offering &assurances8 to the highly liquid banks but not outright guarantees. While banks were cautious, Malaysia was not suffering from some of the inter-bank lending problems of some other countries. Citi,s Nanavati also felt Malaysia,s banking system was fundamentally sound, although he did not exclude the possibility that there would be a few &stumbles8 for Bank Negara to handle in the coming year. WEAKEST LINK: PROPERTY SECTOR ¶6. (SBU) For now, property was the most vulnerable sector in the economy and, with real estate representing much of the collateral backing loans, a property-induced spike in NPLs could weigh heavily on the banking sector, according to Ariff. The property sector had not crumbled yet, Ariff said, but could cave in, especially commercial properties. Landed properties would fare much better than condos where years of overbuilding had left much unsold space. During the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis the GOM established special purpose vehicles to buy up properties to keep the sector from collapsing; these had since been disbanded but the GOM could recreate them if necessary. Yeah noted that several listed corporations had come under pressure GOVERNMENT RESPONSE ONGOING ¶7. (C) The Economic Council, established by Prime Minister Abdullah in August primarily to deal with the spike in inflation, has shifted its focus to dealing with the global economic slowdown, according to Yeah. It established subcommittees to address capital markets, services, manufacturing, logistics, and several other areas. Yeah said several major measures were under consideration by the Council, including liberalization of the services sector as a means of stimulating private investment. Several weeks ago Dr. K Govindan, Head of the Private Sector Development Center located in the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) of the Prime Minister's Department, explained that the full council met monthly, including Ministers and a contingent from the private sector, but smaller executive committee meetings were held weekly, and these were where the real decisions were made. EPU staff and other interested parties presented various studies and papers on various issues such as subsidies, government procurement, education, controlling KUALA LUMP 00000966 003 OF 004 government expenditures, energy security, and tax reform. However, only a handful of Ministers were "supportive of good ideas," Govindan said. When pressed, he named Domestic Trade and Consumer Affaires Minister Shahrir Samad, Deputy Prime Minister Najib, Minister of International Trade and Industry Muhyiddin, and his own boss, Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Amirsham Abdul Aziz. NEW LEADERSHIP AT MOF ¶8. (C) Minister of Finance II Nor Yakcop tended to be among those most opposed to any kind of reform, Govindan said, but according to Yeah, Najib sidelined Yakcop after he took over as Finance Minister I. When Najib became Prime Minister he would hold onto the Finance Minister portfolio, Yeah said, and likely would play a much more active role than the current PM. When asked whether Najib was likely to follow through on his recent promises to review Malaysia's restrictions on foreign investment in the property and commercial sectors and to liberalize the services sector, Yeah was much more optimistic than Ariff. Yeah said Najib would have to do so if he wanted to be anything more than a transitional Prime Minister. Ariff, on the other hand, expected Najib to accomplish little in the way of serious economic reform, as he would face intense opposition from vested interests within his party and even Yeah noted that Najib's reputation for corruption could undermine his credibility as a force for reform. Najib will have his first chance to strengthen his credibility as a reformer when he announces a package of economic measures on November 4. Alluding to the package in a press interview last week, Najib suggested that the services sector should be liberalized and that the Foreign Investment Committee guidelines on the "proprty and commercial sectors" should be "reviewed." Mr. Phang Ah Tong, Director for the Americas at the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority's Foreign Investment Promotion Division told Econoff that he believed Najib would lower foreign investment thresholds for the residential and commercial property sectors, but that liberalizing the services sector would be more complex and probably would be implemented in stages. FIXING THE RACE-BASED ECONOMIC POLICIES ¶9. (C) Ariff was even more skeptical about Najib's comments during an interview with Bloomberg that he supported "gradual liberalizations" of the New Economic Policy (NEP) with implementation of "elements in the not-too-distant future." (Note: The NEP is a system of race-based economic preferences that pervade all aspects of the Malaysian economy. End note.) A day after his first statement to Bloomberg, Najib began to backtrack, telling Malaysian reporters that "elements would not be abolished" but that there would be some "liberalizations in stages." Ariff said there were too many hardliners within the party who saw these race-based preference policies as the foundation of their power. A Najib/Muhyiddin team as PM/DPM would accomplish little and would be short-lived, with the opposition winning the next election, Ariff said. Yeah was a bit more optimistic, believing that Najib and Muhyiddin both knew that if they did not become a transformational team they would be only a transitional team. Malaysia could not move forward without fixing the NEP, he said, which formed a glass ceiling on Malaysia's economy. He pointed out that, since Najib's father had been the one to implement the racial preferences, the son was the appropriate person to undo them, and that Najib "had the guts to do it." Sharing Yeah,s more positive view, Govindan said what the Malaysian economy needed first was an open consultation process which included the private sector, unhindered by the Official Secrets Act. Second, Malaysia needed a "decisive executive" who would make sure the bureaucracy delivered and he described Najib as "decisive." He added that Najib would be supported by Amirsham, former CEO of Maybank, who also favored liberalization of the private sector. KUALA LUMP 00000966 004 OF 004 COMMENT: ¶10. (C) Malaysia spent the first several months of the economic crisis constantly stating how it was insulated and unaffected. However, Bank Negara privately has acknowledged that the economy would face a sharp downturn in 2009. Its revised estimates will likely be made public after November ¶4. The GOM also has taken measures to provide precautionary stabilization for the banking sector through the expansion of deposit insurance as well as its intention to move on a set of liberalization measures to be announced on November 4. If the government puts together a proper package of reforms, it will send a positive signal that it understands the need to take a proactive approach to the global slowdown. This will be a key early test for Najib in his role as Finance Minister. KEITH