UMNO WELCOMES ABDULLAH'S DECISION, SUPPORT SHIFTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000891 SIPDIS FOR EAP, EAP/MTS AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2013 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY SUBJECT: UMNO WELCOMES ABDULLAH'S DECISION, SUPPORT SHIFTS TO NAJIB REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 889 - ABDULLAH TO STEP DOWN ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 858 - ENDGAME FOR ABDULLAH ¶C. KUALA LUMPUR 833 - SEPT 18 SETBACK Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and d). Summary and Comment -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Leaders of the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) welcomed Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's October 8 announcement that he would step down in March as party president and head of government, and immediately sought to position themselves for upcoming UMNO elections. Former Prime Minister Mahathir called for Abdullah to resign before March. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak confirmed his candidacy for the UMNO presidency, and a number of UMNO elites voiced their support for Najib as their next leader. UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin Yassin openly backed Najib for president and is widely expected on October 10 to announce his candidacy for the party's number two slot. UMNO veteran and dark horse Tengku Razaleigh insisted he still would contest for the top spot and complained of money politics. Opposition party leaders expressed concern that PM-designate Najib lacks the integrity and competency to lead the nation. ¶2. (C) Comment: UMNO greeted Abdullah's decision to step down with polite accolades for their unpopular leader and sighs of relief, and then quickly turned their attention to party electioneering. Within the first 24 hours, political focus has shifted to Najib as the heir-apparent and clear frontrunner as next Prime Minister. While the contest for number two appears more crowded for the moment, we believe Muhyiddin has a clear edge. Many UMNO divisions seem to be poised to endorse a de facto Najib/Muhyiddin ticket. An UMNO party that rapidly consolidates around Najib would bode ill for Opposition prospects to attract ethnic Malay and other defectors in Parliament, and will make Anwar Ibrahim's goal of bringing down the UMNO-led government all the more difficult. End Summary and Comment. UMNO Relieved by Abdullah's Decision -------------- ¶3. (U) Leaders of the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) welcomed PM Abdullah Badawi's October announcement that he would step down in March 2009 as party president and head of government. UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin who has been in the forefront in urging Abdullah to step down commended the PM for his "unselfish and responsible decision". He added that everyone should accept this "big sacrifice" as PM Abdullah made the decision "based on the interests of the National Front(BN) and UMNO." Senior UMNO Vice President Ali Rustam also echoed Muhyiddin's view adding that everyone should fall behind DPM Najib "to strengthen the party to face future challenges." State UMNO leaders including those from Penang and Kelantan, who had initially expressed support for Abdullah, also expressed relief with the PM's decision and conveyed support for DPM Najib. They urged the UMNO divisions in their respective states to nominate Najib for the UMNO President's post as he is a "natural successor to Abdullah" who will "restore the people's confidence for UMNO and the BN." Mahathir: Step Down Now -------------- ¶4. (U) Former PM Mahathir, who has been a vociferous critic of PM Abdullah, expressed happiness that Abdullah would be stepping down as UMNO President and PM. Writing on his blog October 8, the former PM, however, called for Abdullah to step down now rather than wait until March 2009, contending Abdullah is not giving DPM Najib the full authority to rehabilitate the party. In this context, Mahathir hoped that Abdullah would "shut up" between now and March 2009. Mahathir also told reporters October 8 that Najib whom he described as "an incompetent deputy prime minister" for not having his own stand and always following Abdullah's advise, would change when he takes over as PM. He also endorsed Muhyiddin as Najib's deputy and described the other contenders for the Deputy President post as "jokers." KUALA LUMP 00000891 002 OF 003 DPM Najib Confirms Candidacy for Party President -------------- --- ¶5. (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak confirmed his candidacy for the UMNO presidency on October 9. At a press conference in Terengganu, he stated that since Abdullah had decided not to defend his post, he (Najib) "humbly" offered himself as a candidate for the party presidency. Najib also pledged to carry on the reform agenda set out by PM Abdullah. Commenting on the Prime Minister's decision to step down in March, Najib said, "it reflected the sincerity of Abdullah in placing the interest of the people, party and nation" above everything else. Responding to Najib's announcement, UMNO chiefs in Perak (Najib's home state) and Terengganu pledged their support. Observers expected some other UMNO state executives to fall in line quickly and back Najib. Muhyiddin Backs Najib, Expected to Declare for Number 2 -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) UMNO Vice President and Minister for International Trade and Industry Muhyiddin Yassin publicly urged all UMNO divisions to give "100 percent backing" for Najib to ensure that the leadership transition from Abdullah to Najib "can proceed smoothly." Muhyiddin is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the party's Deputy President post on October 10, and stands as the presumed frontrunner for the deputy slot. The UMNO Deputy President by convention has been the Deputy Prime Minister of the country. Other UMNO leaders who have declared their candidacy for the number two post include current senior UMNO Vice President and Melaka Chief Minister Ali Rustam, UMNO Information Chief Muhammad Muhammad Taib, and Johor UMNO Pulai division chief and two-term Member of Parliament Nur Jazlan. Observers expect some of these leaders to withdraw their names, and instead contest for the three UMNO Vice President posts or for the 25-seat UMNO Supreme Council. Razaleigh Insists on Contest -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah reaffirmed he would contest the UMNO President post but complained of money politics. He told reporters October 8 that despite "money being used to support certain leaders," he is hopeful of getting the minimum 58 nominations from the 191 UMNO divisions (to be eligible to contest the UMNO President post). Nominations for the UMNO President, Deputy President, three Vice President and 25 seat supreme council positions will be made during UMNO divisional meetings, held October 9 to November 9. Razaleigh's senior aide claimed to us that the veteran leader has received "tremendous support" at the grassroots. Outside of Razaleigh's camp, however, Embassy contacts share the view that the veteran UMNO leader is unlikely to obtain the minimum number of nominations to contest. Opposition Party Reaction -------------- ¶8. (U) Peoples Justice Party (PKR) de facto leader and Opposition leader in Parliament Anwar Ibrahim told reporters October 9 that he was not surprised over Abdullah decision to step down. However, he expressed concern with "PM-designate Najib" whom he claimed has shown no indication of his commitment to "judicial reform, free media, and democratic process" or "any interest to the global economic crisis." Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) Information Chief Mahfuz Omar stated October 9 that the people are demanding "leaders with integrity" to lead the country. In this context, he opined that Najib is not viewed as a clean leader and will not boost investor confidence in the country. The PAS Information Chief urged the King and the Malay rulers to set up commission to vet thoroughly a potential Prime Minister to ensure that a "clean and competent candidate" assumes the post. Democratic Action Party (DAP) leaders expressed disappointment at the way UMNO "hounded and chased out" PM Abdullah from office. However, they hoped Abdullah could still "leave a legacy of change and make an honorable exit as the fifth Prime Minister" by fulfilling his reform agenda in the remaining five months in office. KUALA LUMP 00000891 003 OF 003 KEITH