UMNO WELCOMES ABDULLAH'S DECISION, SUPPORT SHIFTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000891

SIPDIS

FOR EAP, EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UMNO WELCOMES ABDULLAH'S DECISION, SUPPORT SHIFTS
TO NAJIB

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 889 - ABDULLAH TO STEP DOWN

B. KUALA LUMPUR 858 - ENDGAME FOR ABDULLAH

C. KUALA LUMPUR 833 - SEPT 18 SETBACK

Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and d).

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (SBU) Leaders of the ruling United Malays National
Organization (UMNO) welcomed Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's
October 8 announcement that he would step down in March as
party president and head of government, and immediately
sought to position themselves for upcoming UMNO elections.
Former Prime Minister Mahathir called for Abdullah to resign
before March. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak
confirmed his candidacy for the UMNO presidency, and a number
of UMNO elites voiced their support for Najib as their next
leader. UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin Yassin openly backed
Najib for president and is widely expected on October 10 to
announce his candidacy for the party's number two slot. UMNO
veteran and dark horse Tengku Razaleigh insisted he still
would contest for the top spot and complained of money
politics. Opposition party leaders expressed concern that
PM-designate Najib lacks the integrity and competency to lead
the nation.


2. (C) Comment: UMNO greeted Abdullah's decision to step
down with polite accolades for their unpopular leader and
sighs of relief, and then quickly turned their attention to
party electioneering. Within the first 24 hours, political
focus has shifted to Najib as the heir-apparent and clear
frontrunner as next Prime Minister. While the contest for
number two appears more crowded for the moment, we believe
Muhyiddin has a clear edge. Many UMNO divisions seem to be
poised to endorse a de facto Najib/Muhyiddin ticket. An UMNO
party that rapidly consolidates around Najib would bode ill
for Opposition prospects to attract ethnic Malay and other
defectors in Parliament, and will make Anwar Ibrahim's goal
of bringing down the UMNO-led government all the more
difficult. End Summary and Comment.

UMNO Relieved by Abdullah's Decision
--------------


3. (U) Leaders of the ruling United Malays National
Organization (UMNO) welcomed PM Abdullah Badawi's October
announcement that he would step down in March 2009 as party
president and head of government. UMNO Vice President
Muhyiddin who has been in the forefront in urging Abdullah to
step down commended the PM for his "unselfish and responsible
decision". He added that everyone should accept this "big
sacrifice" as PM Abdullah made the decision "based on the
interests of the National Front(BN) and UMNO." Senior UMNO
Vice President Ali Rustam also echoed Muhyiddin's view adding
that everyone should fall behind DPM Najib "to strengthen the
party to face future challenges." State UMNO leaders
including those from Penang and Kelantan, who had initially
expressed support for Abdullah, also expressed relief with
the PM's decision and conveyed support for DPM Najib. They
urged the UMNO divisions in their respective states to
nominate Najib for the UMNO President's post as he is a
"natural successor to Abdullah" who will "restore the
people's confidence for UMNO and the BN."

Mahathir: Step Down Now
--------------


4. (U) Former PM Mahathir, who has been a vociferous critic
of PM Abdullah, expressed happiness that Abdullah would be
stepping down as UMNO President and PM. Writing on his blog
October 8, the former PM, however, called for Abdullah to
step down now rather than wait until March 2009, contending
Abdullah is not giving DPM Najib the full authority to
rehabilitate the party. In this context, Mahathir hoped that
Abdullah would "shut up" between now and March 2009.
Mahathir also told reporters October 8 that Najib whom he
described as "an incompetent deputy prime minister" for not
having his own stand and always following Abdullah's advise,
would change when he takes over as PM. He also endorsed
Muhyiddin as Najib's deputy and described the other
contenders for the Deputy President post as "jokers."

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DPM Najib Confirms Candidacy for Party President
-------------- ---


5. (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak confirmed his
candidacy for the UMNO presidency on October 9. At a press
conference in Terengganu, he stated that since Abdullah had
decided not to defend his post, he (Najib) "humbly" offered
himself as a candidate for the party presidency. Najib also
pledged to carry on the reform agenda set out by PM Abdullah.
Commenting on the Prime Minister's decision to step down in
March, Najib said, "it reflected the sincerity of Abdullah in
placing the interest of the people, party and nation" above
everything else. Responding to Najib's announcement, UMNO
chiefs in Perak (Najib's home state) and Terengganu pledged
their support. Observers expected some other UMNO state
executives to fall in line quickly and back Najib.

Muhyiddin Backs Najib, Expected to Declare for Number 2
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) UMNO Vice President and Minister for International
Trade and Industry Muhyiddin Yassin publicly urged all UMNO
divisions to give "100 percent backing" for Najib to ensure
that the leadership transition from Abdullah to Najib "can
proceed smoothly." Muhyiddin is widely expected to announce
his candidacy for the party's Deputy President post on
October 10, and stands as the presumed frontrunner for the
deputy slot. The UMNO Deputy President by convention has
been the Deputy Prime Minister of the country. Other UMNO
leaders who have declared their candidacy for the number two
post include current senior UMNO Vice President and Melaka
Chief Minister Ali Rustam, UMNO Information Chief Muhammad
Muhammad Taib, and Johor UMNO Pulai division chief and
two-term Member of Parliament Nur Jazlan. Observers expect
some of these leaders to withdraw their names, and instead
contest for the three UMNO Vice President posts or for the
25-seat UMNO Supreme Council.

Razaleigh Insists on Contest
--------------


7. (SBU) Veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah
reaffirmed he would contest the UMNO President post but
complained of money politics. He told reporters October 8
that despite "money being used to support certain leaders,"
he is hopeful of getting the minimum 58 nominations from the
191 UMNO divisions (to be eligible to contest the UMNO
President post). Nominations for the UMNO President, Deputy
President, three Vice President and 25 seat supreme council
positions will be made during UMNO divisional meetings, held
October 9 to November 9. Razaleigh's senior aide claimed to
us that the veteran leader has received "tremendous support"
at the grassroots. Outside of Razaleigh's camp, however,
Embassy contacts share the view that the veteran UMNO leader
is unlikely to obtain the minimum number of nominations to
contest.

Opposition Party Reaction
--------------


8. (U) Peoples Justice Party (PKR) de facto leader and
Opposition leader in Parliament Anwar Ibrahim told reporters
October 9 that he was not surprised over Abdullah decision to
step down. However, he expressed concern with "PM-designate
Najib" whom he claimed has shown no indication of his
commitment to "judicial reform, free media, and democratic
process" or "any interest to the global economic crisis."
Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) Information Chief Mahfuz Omar
stated October 9 that the people are demanding "leaders with
integrity" to lead the country. In this context, he opined
that Najib is not viewed as a clean leader and will not boost
investor confidence in the country. The PAS Information
Chief urged the King and the Malay rulers to set up
commission to vet thoroughly a potential Prime Minister to
ensure that a "clean and competent candidate" assumes the
post. Democratic Action Party (DAP) leaders expressed
disappointment at the way UMNO "hounded and chased out" PM
Abdullah from office. However, they hoped Abdullah could
still "leave a legacy of change and make an honorable exit as
the fifth Prime Minister" by fulfilling his reform agenda in
the remaining five months in office.

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KEITH