POLITICKING GEARS DOWN FOR MUSLIM HOLIDAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000866

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: POLITICKING GEARS DOWN FOR MUSLIM HOLIDAYS

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 858

B. KUALA LUMPUR 847

C. KUALA LUMPUR 833

D. KUALA LUMPUR 821

Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 b and
d.

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) The United Malay National Organization (UMNO) Supreme
Council's decision on September 26 to postpone the party's
election to March 2009 (ref A),and the widely-rumored
understanding that Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi would not
seek reelection, have generated some reactions within the
ruling party even as public politicking gears down for the
Muslim holiday season. Three UMNO divisions unofficially
endorsed Deputy Prime Minister Najib and UMNO Vice President
Muhyiddin for the top party spots next year, somewhat
preempting PM Abdullah's announcement whether or not he will
stand of reelection. The three-month postponement of the
party elections attracted criticism from several party
leaders and divisions. Veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh
reaffirmed his candidacy for the UMNO presidency, while
behind the scenes his camp kept options open by meeting all
sides, including the Opposition. A senior official in Anwar
Ibrahim's People's Justice Party (PKR) described the latest
UMNO deal as bad news for the Opposition, which would be more
threatened by a consolidated UMNO led by Najib. The PKR
official also cast doubts on Opposition prospects.


2. (SBU) Comment: Due to the end of Ramadan and the Muslim
holiday season beginning October 1, we expect the political
scene to remain relatively quiet until next week. The first
half of October, however, promises a return to intense
politicking by all sides. End Summary and Comment.

UMNO Supreme Council Decision Criticized from Within
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The United Malay National Organization (UMNO)
Supreme Council's decision on September 26 to postpone the
party's convention and election (reftel) to March 2009, and
the widely-rumored understanding that Prime Minister Abdullah
Badawi would not seek reelection, have generated some
reactions within the ruling party even as UMNO politicking
faded in intensity as Malaysia approached Muslim holiday
season. Although PM Abdullah has given himself until October
9 to announce whether he intends to run for reelection as
UMNO President, three UMNO divisions decided not to wait for
Abdullah's decision and unofficially proclaimed they would
nominate Deputy Prime Minister Najib and UMNO party Vice
President Muhyiddin Yassin for top two UMNO posts. Local
political commentators expected some additional UMNO
divisions to follow suit and declare their preference for
Najib and Muhyiddin before the start of the divisional
meetings on October 9, representing a pre-emptive move by
these two leaders according to several Embassy contacts.


4. (SBU) The three-month postponement of the party elections
attracted criticism from several UMNO party leaders and
divisions. Aspirants for senior party offices reportedly
grumbled behind the scenes at the added cost of maintaining
delegates' support over an additional three months. The son
of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, Mukhriz Mahathir,
who is seeking election to head the Youth wing, criticized
the Council for reversing its earlier decision to hold the
polls in December. At a dinner hosted by Mukhriz for the
media on September 28, Mukhriz not only criticized the
postponement but urged UMNO divisions not to nominate
Abdullah if the "flip flop PM" decided to contest the UMNO
President's post. He urged party divisional leaders to "do
the right thing" and prevent Abdullah from getting the
minimum 58 nominations (from out of the 191 UMNO divisions)
to contest the President's post. Mukhriz's main rival for
the important UMNO Youth chief position, Abdullah's
son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, also took issue with the
postponement, arguing that the decision could complicate the
campaigns of those standing in the election, and lead to the
party being "obsessed with politicking for the whole of six
months." Leaders of one UMNO division announced they would
pass a resolution to urge the party to proceed with elections

KUALA LUMP 00000866 002 OF 003


in December as originally planned.

Tengku Razaleigh: Keeping his Options Open
--------------


5. (SBU) Veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh continued to
protest the postponement of party elections to March 2009 and
called on UMNO members to reject this proposal during the
UMNO divisional meetings. At a press conference on
September 27 officially announcing his candidacy for the UMNO
President's post, Razaleigh reiterated that the transition
plan of PM Abdullah and DPM Najib was "extra-constitutional",
akin to &passing property8 from one to another, was
"undemocratic" and had made Malaysia an "international
laughing stock." He opined that the "arrangement" was not in
the interest of members but "safeguards the interests of
certain leaders." Razaleigh instead stressed that the
party's office bearers should be decided by party members
according to party rules.


6. (C) Razaleigh's senior aide, John Pang, told Polchief on
September 29 that Razaleigh still hoped to obtain the 58
nominations (out of 191 divisions) required to contest the
election. Pang admitted, however, that powerful party
interests were pressuring divisions otherwise inclined to
support Razaleigh, even in his home state of Kelantan. Pang
thought that Razaleigh's prospects for contesting the UMNO
presidency could be clear in the coming few weeks, even
before official decisions by the divisions. In the meantime,
Razaleigh would keep "all options open." Pang revealed that
Razaleigh has had two meetings so far with People Justice
Party (PKR) leader Anwar Ibrahim, and that since September
26, Razaleigh and his aides (Pang included) have met with
Opposition representatives as well as PM Abdullah's close
advisors. Razaleigh's current advantage is "positional,"
Pang contended, as Razaleigh's royal Malay background and
strong reputation put him at the center of various political
outcomes.

UMNO Decision Bad News for Anwar
--------------


7. (C) Polchief and POL FSN met on September 27 with PKR
Secretary General Salehuddin Hashim, who confirmed the party
had several inconclusive meetings with Razaleigh. The
Secretary General described the UMNO Supreme Council decision
last Friday as "bad news" for Anwar Ibrahim and the PKR. He
stated candidly that the initial agreement for Abdullah to
hand over power to Najib in June 2010 would have eventually
"imploded" UMNO, and the prospect of a quicker transition to
Najib posed greater risks. Once Abdullah announces he will
not contest for the party presidency, more power would shift
to Najib. Salehuddin contended that Najib, like Mahathir,
would have "no qualms or reservation" to use the Internal
Security Act (ISA) to detain opposition leaders if there is a
serious threat to continued UMNO rule. He believed Najib
also would use the judiciary against Anwar by revoking his
bail in the ongoing sodomy case to keep "the opposition
leader out of circulation."


8. (C) While acknowledging that Anwar and the Opposition were
under pressure to make a move before UMNO consolidated itself
under Najib's leadership, Salehuddin implied that the
Opposition coalition was not strongly positioned to topple
the BN government, nor well prepared to run the national
government if it did come to power. In terms of crossovers,
the Opposition "is still negotiating with Members of
Parliament," and the negotiations with individuals have
become more complicated over time as larger group and party
considerations come into play. For example, the Chinese-led
Democratic Action Party (DAP) objected to admitting the
competing Chinese-dominated Gerakan party into the Opposition
fold.


9. (C) After some questioning, Salehuddin noted Anwar likely
would introduce a motion of no-confidence against PM Abdullah
when Parliament reconvenes on October 13, which requiring
two-weeks notice and implying a vote at the end of October.
Salehuddin, however, was less than sanguine about the outcome
of a no-confidence vote. He also suggested that the
Opposition parties, struggling now to run five state
administrations, did not have the experienced cadres
necessary to form an effective national government.

KUALA LUMP 00000866 003 OF 003


Salehuddin also noted that Anwar continues to have
difficulties in attracting sufficient ethnic Malay support.
Despite a level of sympathy for Anwar, the majority of Malays
still appear supportive of UMNO leading the nation,
Salehuddin stated.

Important Dates on the Horizon
--------------


10. (C) The first half of October will feature four dates of
importance. On October 7, the Sessions Court will decide
whether Anwar,s sodomy trial will be shifted to the High
Court, seen as more supportive of the prosecution, or will
remain at the Sessions Court in defiance of a order by the
Attorney General. By October 9, PM Abdullah will announce
his decision whether to contest for the UMNO presidency. Few
now expect Abdullah to seek reelection; a decision by
Abdullah to persist in the race would cause great turmoil in
UMNO. October 9 the 191 UMNO divisions will begin their
month long process of nominating their choices for the UMNO
President, Deputy President, three vice Presidents and 25
Supreme Council members, and their delegates (13 each) to the
party polls. On October 13, Parliament will reconvene, with
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim widely expected to challenge
PM Abdullah's government with some form of no confidence
measure.
KEITH