SEPTEMBER 16 ANTI-CLIMAX, BUT ANWAR REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000815

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 16 ANTI-CLIMAX, BUT ANWAR REMAINS
COMMITTED TO CROSSOVER PLAN

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 810

B. KUALA LUMPUR 765

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 b
and d.

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's original September
16 deadline to wrest power from ruling National Front (BN)
coalition has passed in anti-climactic fashion, and without
the crossover of any government members of Parliament (MPs)
to the opposition ranks. The opposition Pakatan alliance
(PKR) held a moderately large and peaceful rally on the
evening of September 15 featuring condemnation of recent
arrests under the Internal Security Act (ISA) and Anwar's
pledge that his coming to power was inevitable, even if it
would not happen the next day. Anwar followed up with a
press conference on September 16 reaffirming he had the
support of over 31 MPs necessary to form a governing
majority, but not revealing any names citing fears the MPs
would be arrested under the ISA. To pursue a peaceful
transition of power, Anwar said he now sought a meeting with
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and assurances that the BN
government would not use authoritarian measures, like ISA
arrests, to impede the change in government. Meanwhile,
legal reform minister Zaid Ibrahim reconfirmed his
resignation and did not rule out joining the Opposition.


2. (C) Comment: Even though Anwar had previewed that the
Opposition would not make the September 16 deadline for
attaining power, his inability to announce the defection of
any BN MPs could hurt his credibility. Nevertheless, Anwar
remains fully committed to gaining the majority in parliament
through crossovers and seeks to make headway in the coming
days and weeks. We do not take Anwar's request to see the
PM, seemingly to negotiate Abdullah's surrender and seek
assurances from authoritarian measures, as a serious
proposition. Rather, it appears to be an effort to gain
moral high ground, make it more difficult for the government
to take harsh actions, and justify the Opposition's delay.
With PM Abdullah and his UMNO party locked in a leadership
struggle approaching a crucial UMNO meeting on September 18,
and the BN coalition itself in disarray, the BN government
must continue to take Anwar's threat seriously. End Summary
and Comment.

BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT, A PROTEST AND PEP-RALLY
-------------- ---


3. (SBU) In the run-up to Anwar's September 16 deadline for
toppling the government, PKR and its allies staged a mass
rally on the night of September 15. Speakers at the rally
condemned the UMNO-led government over the September 12
arrests of three individuals under the Internal Security Act,
and reassured the crowd that a change in government was
inevitable. The event also focused on grievances from East
Malaysia. As keynote speaker, Anwar claimed that the
Opposition's coming to power was inevitable, although he also
made it clear that it would not immediately occur on
September 16, but would happen soon. In separate comments,
Anwar noted his personal objective of replacing PM Abdullah's
government by the end of September. Anwar supporters
originally projected that a crowd of up to 30,000 supporters
would come out for the event; pro-government and media
sources place the actual size of the crowd at 8,000 while PKR
supporters place the number at between 10,000 and 20,000. In
an unusual move, the police granted a permit for the
opposition event. The rally played out without any notable
security incidents.

THE BIG DAY: A WINNING HAND OR A MASTER BLUFF?
-------------- -


4. (SBU) On September 16, Anwar Ibrahim called a press
conference at his party headquarters in the midst of intense
speculation surrounding the potential crossover of BN MPs and
the Opposition's next moves now that the original deadline
for bringing down Abdullah's government had arrived. Anwar
reaffirmed that he had secured enough members of parliament
in the BN ranks ("more than 31") to effectively transfer
power to his opposition coalition (Pakatan). He would not
reveal specific names of the MPs citing fears they could be
arrested under the Internal Security Act. Anwar went on to
explain that, rather than forcing the issue of the transfer
of power, he had decided it is in Malaysia's best interest to
bring about a "smooth, peaceful" transition over the coming

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days and weeks. The Opposition leader pitched September 16
as the beginning of this transition.


5. (SBU) As next steps, Anwar confirmed that he had sent a
letter to the Prime Minister on September 15 requesting a
meeting that would address the transfer of power. The letter
also sought assurances on four points, namely that the BN
government would not prevent BN MPs from acting according to
their conscience; detain BN or opposition MPs under the ISA;
invoke emergency rule; or impede MPs from accessing
Parliament or the Palace. Following such a meeting with
Abdullah, Anwar would proceed to establish a new government
with the assent of the King.


6. (C) Comment: Pakatan's press statement noted in
particular one small BN party, SAPP of Sabah, whose leader
had earlier in the year announced his support for a
no-confidence vote against PM Abdullah. SAPP leadership will
meet September 17 to decide whether to remain in BN. If SAPP
decides to leave the Prime Minister's coalition government,
Anwar could claim this as the first defection, even if SAPP
does not immediately and formally join the Opposition. SAPP
has only two MPs. End Comment.


7. (C) Embassy Political Specialist observed the press
conference and spoke with opposition leaders afterward. We
also spoke with other opposition sources during the course of
September 16. Members of Anwar's People's Justice party
(PKR) and the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) appeared
enthusiastic and committed to Anwar's course, although the
senior most PAS officials did not attend Anwar's press
conference. Members of the third component, the Democratic
Action Party (DAP),seemed less convinced of Anwar's message,
with one DAP official complaining that information on Anwar's
would-be crossovers remained "vague".


8. (C) Azmin Ali, a key Anwar lieutenant and spin doctor,
told us that Anwar believed Abdullah would be reasonable and
negotiate under current circumstances. However, the
Opposition was concerned that the UMNO Supreme Council
meeting on September 18 could result in the Prime Minister's
resignation and his replacement by DPM Najib, who would be a
much more difficult opponent. (Comment: Kuala Lumpur is
abuzz with rumors concerning UMNO's September 18 meeting, and
alleged plans to use that meeting to force PM Abdullah to
step down by December. End Comment.) Azmin claimed that
Anwar had met recently with Zaid Ibrahim, who resigned as de
facto legal reform minister on September 15, and UMNO veteran
leader Tengku Razaleigh, both of whom had committed
themselves to supporting Anwar, a claim we heard from other
opposition sources. (Comment: The information on Tengku
Razaleigh conflicts with what we heard in our meeting with
Razaleigh's aide on September 15, ref A. End Comment.)


9. (SBU) Following the press conference,
government-influenced mainstream media outlets rushed to
report that Anwar had not made good on his deadline. The New
Straits Times ran a by-line, "Now it's another few days....No
names, no list (of MPs),no crossovers".

MORE DETAILS AND FALLOUT FROM THE ISA ROW
--------------


10. (SBU) De-facto Justice Minister Zaid Ibrahim held his own
press conference on the morning of September 16 to publicly
reaffirm his resignation, despite Prime Minister Abdullah
Badawi's refusal to accept his decision. Zaid explained that
his frustration over lack of support for legal reforms, in
addition to the government's decision to invoke the ISA
against three individuals on September 12, had led to his
decision. Zaid also said that he has not made a final
decision on leaving UMNO or joining the opposition, stating
that he was keeping an open mind.


11. (SBU) Meanwhile, police announced their intent to
continue to hold MP Teresa Kok in their custody under the ISA
(ref A) at least until October 12, which would bring her
total time in confinement to 30 days and could mean release
just ahead of the October 13 reconvening of Parliament. It
is otherwise not clear as to why this length of time was
specified. Kok's parents were able to meet with her for 90
minutes on September 15, and they expressed their outrage
over the charges and conditions in which their daughter is
held.


12. (SBU) As of close of business on September 16, the
Embassy has yet to receive any formal notification regarding
the Foreign Minister's reported intention to summon the

KUALA LUMP 00000815 003 OF 003


Ambassador in relation to our public comments related to the
ISA arrests. A variety of Malaysian interlocutors have
privately thanked the Ambassador and other Embassy officers
for Embassy and Department statements in support of basic
freedoms.
KEITH