ANWAR - NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000762

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR - NEXT STEPS

REF: A. KL 759 ANWAR WINS RESOUNDING VICTORY

B. KL 753 INDICATORS ALL POINT TO ANWAR VICTORY

C. KL 743 GOM PLAYING HARDBALL

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF W. GARY GRAY, REASON 1.4
(B AND
D).


1. (C) Summary. In the wake of Anwar Ibrahim,s decisive
victory in the Permatang Pauh by-election yesterday, the
Speaker of Parliament has reversed himself and now says he
will swear in the newly-elected MP on August 28. This will
enable the soon-to-be official opposition leader to confront
PM Abdullah directly when the PM presents the government,s
budget the following day. In the meantime the ruling
coalition is rushing to pass legislation on DNA evidence
before the current parliamentary session ends on August 29.
Such a new law potentially could lead to prosecution of Anwar
for refusing to provide DNA evidence in regard to the ongoing
sodomy case against him. The BN,s resounding defeat in the
by-election is just starting to reverberate through the
ruling alliance. End Summary.


2. (C) At the opening of the August 27 parliament session
Speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia announced his plans to swear in
Anwar Ibrahim on August 28 as a new MP. He reported that he
already had received the required letter from the Election
Commission informing him of the by-election results. During
the final days of campaigning in Permatang Pauh, Anwar and
his supporters had expressed great confidence that he would
enter Parliament this week, even though Pandikar had said
earlier that he would put off the swearing-in until some time
in October. This is a possible indication that Pandikar, who
previously has shown some signs of independence from the BN
leadership that appointed him, may have arrived at some kind
of accommodation with the opposition, a development that
could spell more trouble for the BN. Conventional wisdom
here has held that the Government would delay Anwar,s return
to Parliament as long as possible, if for no other reason
than to prevent him from being present as the new opposition
leader when PM Abdullah presents the Government,s 2009
budget to Parliament on August 29.


3. (C) Possibly complicating Anwar's legal situation is the
ruling coalition,s apparent effort to rush through
legislation on DNA evidence before the current parliamentary
session ends August 29. The bill as currently drafted would
compel suspects to provide DNA evidence or face fines or jail
time, and could potentially apply to Anwar,s ongoing sodomy
case. While even some BN MPs reportedly have reservations
about the legislation, it was scheduled second on the agenda
for the August 27 session and could come up for a vote as
early August 27 or 28. However, this legislation would then
require approval by the upper house of parliament (Senate),
now scheduled to convene only on December 1. Any move to
call the upper house into session before then would be a
strong indication that the Government was anxious to use the
DNA law against Anwar.


4. (C) The outcome in Permatang Pauh (Ref A) is just
beginning to reverberate through the ruling alliance. The
major question is how this development will affect the
leadership struggle within the BN. Abdullah,s main critics
within UMNO, including Tengku Razaleigh and Mukhriz Mahathir,
have taken advantage of the by-election results to renew
their calls for the PM to step down. Other commentators
argue that DPM Najib, who as BN Deputy President was
responsible for managing the coalition,s uninspired campaign
in Permatang Pauh, must also take some responsibility.
Najib and other BN spokesmen are attempting to downplay the
results, emphasizing that Anwar was expected to win this
contest on his own turf all along, and that the Permatang
Pauh results have little relevance for the national level
political landscape.


5. (C) Najib himself has argued that Anwar,s convincing
win proved that the Government did not try to manipulate the
vote and that Malaysia has a truly democratic system.
Pro-opposition commentators have praised the Permatang Pauh
voters for demonstrating that the Malaysian electorate is not
so easily manipulated by race-based campaign tactics. It
remains to be seen to what degree the BN,s Malay-centric
racially tinged attacks on Anwar may have antagonized the
non-Malay parties in the ruling coalition. On August 27 the
MCA (Malaysia Chinese Association) youth wing demanded that
an UMNO division chief apologize for alleged anti-Chinese
remarks during the Permatang Pauh campaign.

KUALA LUMP 00000762 002 OF 002




6. (C) Comment. It now appears certain, barring any truly
drastic, unprecedented moves by the Government, that Anwar
will return to the Parliament and assume a much more visible
role as the official as well as de facto leader of the
opposition. While Anwar revealed his political platform only
in vague terms in the by-election campaign, the coming days
should provide some indications of the positions he will take
in Parliament and down the road. The resumption of Anwar,s
sodomy case in court on September 10 (Ref B) obviously
continues to loom over his political comeback.

KEITH