ANWAR WINS RESOUNDING BY-ELECTION VICTORY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000759

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR WINS RESOUNDING BY-ELECTION VICTORY


1. (SBU) Summary. Anwar Ibrahim appears to have won the
Permatang Pauh by-election by a wide margin, with early
reports on the evening of August 26 giving him a two-to-one
advantage over his Barisan Nasional opponent. On election
eve, Anwar had sought to dampen expectations of a landslide
victory, acknowledging that a relentless, negative BN
campaign may have had some influence on ethnic-Malayvoters.
On August 26 PKR contacts also alleged that the ruling
Barisan Nasional (BN) party brought in "phantom" voters from
outside the district and used the huge police presence to
suppress voter turnout, especially in predominately Chinese
areas. While early reports indicated voter turnout
significantly down compared to the election last March, Anwar
apparently has nevertheless won a resounding victory and will
be returning to parliament, but not until sometime in
October, according to the Parliamentary Speaker who controls
the scheduling of his swearing-in. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As of mid-evening on August 26, various, sometimes
contradictory figures were coming in from official and
political party sources but all seemed to indicate Anwar on
top by about a two-to-one margin. The pro-government New
Straits Times was reporting 27,629 votes for Anwar and 13,272
for Arif Shah, with about one-third of the votes remaining to
be counted. This seemed to contradict earlier reports that
only some 38,000 people went to the polls, which would be
considerably less than in March. All pro-government papers
were reporting that Anwar had won big, however. Throughout
the day, PKR contacts had expressed worries that the heavy
presence of police, especially in Chinese areas expected to
vote overwhelmingly for Anwar, was suppressing voter turnout.
Poloffs toured these areas, and observed large contingents
of police in full riot gear in position alongside the road
near polling places. Police had also closed a major artery
in the area, hopelessly snarling traffic. Later in the day,
PKR operatives claimed to have stopped several buses
transporting "Indonesians" into the area to vote for the BN
candidate, but this was still under investigation.


3. (SBU) Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance appeared to
dominate the last day of campaigning before the August 26
Permatang Pauh by-election. In a tour of the district, from
the more urban, developed areas across the bridge from the
Penang metropolis to the more rural, inland Malay area
bordering on Kedah, Poloffs observed few BN activities of any
significance, while Anwar's supporters seemed to be
everywhere. About 90 percent of those passing vehicles
choosing to display their political allegiances exhibited
flags and stickers supporting the PR. Poloffs saw Deputy
Prime Minister Najib address a predominantly Malay crowd of a
few dozen at Penanti, where the scale of the logistical
operation surrounding the DPM seemed out of proportion to the
relative insignificance of the gathering. Arguing that the
PR was neglecting the Malays, Najib chided the
opposition-controlled Penang state government for not
including the sole PAS state assemblymen in the state
administration. In the nearby Malay areas, BN banners
proclaimed "Anwar a traitor to the Malays" and "Anwar will
sell off Malaysia to foreigners. One of the BN's last events
on August 25, a rally featuring two defectors from Anwar's
PKR party, drew about 50 people, according to a political
scientist at the local university.


4. (SBU) Anwar's campaign culminated with a series of rallies
with the "grand finale" attracting an overflow crowd of many
thousands in a carnival atmosphere in a large muddy field
along the North South Highway. Anwar's supporters waited
patiently and good-naturedly for over two hours in a steady
rain for him to arrive. Long lines of police and Federal
Reserve Unit trucks were parked in nearby areas but there was
no police presence in the immediate vicinity of the rally. A
police helicopter shining a spotlight on the crowd drew loud,
contemptuous reactions from the ethnically-mixed assemblage.
An elderly Chinese woman standing near Poloffs passionately
warned a group of Malay youths that they must be especially
vigilant in regard to the BN bringing in outsiders, who would
use the identity cards of local residents to cast votes. She
claimed that BN operatives had offered her RM500 to borrow
her identity card with promises of an additional RM2000 if BN
won the election. When Anwar finally arrived, squeezing his
way through the rain and mud to the stage, he blasted the
mainstream Malaysian media for its one-sided coverage of the
campaign and humorously attempted to defuse BN charges that
he was an agent of "the Chinese, the Indians, the Jews and
the Americans" by proclaiming: "I am the only one in the
world who is an agent of all."


5. (SBU) Despite evidence on the ground of overwhelming

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support for Anwar, by August 25 the de facto opposition
leaders and his increasingly nervous aides were seeking to
dampen expectations he would win with a huge majority. In
addition to the feared manipulations of the vote, Anwar
reportedly was conceding to reporters that the BN's
relentless negative campaign against him probably was making
some inroads among the Malay population. In the end,
however, these worries seem to have turned out unfounded.

KEITH
KEITH