NO-CONFIDENCE PLOY FIZZLES IN PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000535

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: NO-CONFIDENCE PLOY FIZZLES IN PARLIAMENT

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 523 -- OPPOSITION STRATEGY?

B. KUALA LUMPUR 482 -- CALLS FOR PROTESTS

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah won a tactical victory on June
23 as his National Front (BN) parliamentarians voted as a
block to approve a motion on the recent controversial fuel
price hikes, beating back public speculation that the vote
would become a no-confidence motion on Abdullah's leadership.
Absent were two BN MPs from the small Sabah party, SAPP,
which declared its support for a no-confidence motion. The
opposition did not put serious effort into the vote, but took
advantage of a target of opportunity precipitated by SAPP's
announcement. Nonetheless, the vote gives Abdullah some
breathing room by calming immediate fears of more BN
parliamentarians breaking ranks. End Summary.

PM Abdullah Passes Test at Parliament
--------------


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi won a much-watched
vote in Parliament June 23 on a motion Minister of Domestic
Trade and Consumer Affairs Shahrir Samad tabled to justify
the government's decision to raise drastically fuel prices on
June 4 (ref B). The opposition People's Alliance (PR),which
controls 82 out of the 222 seats in parliament, had hoped to
take advantage of the government's motion and frame it as a
vote of no confidence against PM Abdullah's government. The
government was not in danger of losing the vote unless ruling
party members turned against Abdullah. The June 18
announcement by the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP),a small
BN component party from Sabah, that its two Members of
Parliament were planning to table or support a motion of no
confidence against PM Abdullah (ref A),created the
impression that at least some of the BN MPs would vote with
the opposition and embarrass the government.


3. (SBU) Despite such speculation, MPs voted along party
lines with 129 BN MPs voting in favor and 78 opposition MPs
voting against the motion. The two SAPP MPs did not attend
Parliament, with the SAPP party citing security concerns from
threats they received. The government influenced mainstream
media described the victory as a clear "vote of confidence in
PM Abdullah's BN coalition and on the price hike." The vote
also eased fears that BN MPs would abandon Abdullah, either
to defect to the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim, or to force
Abdullah's ouster in favor of another UMNO leader.


4. (C) Poloffs attended the June 23 parliamentary session
and noted that both local and foreign journalists were keenly
observing the MPs especially from Sabah who were meeting at
the Parliamentarian cafeteria on the sideline of the debates.
There was speculation that the Sabah BN MPs might break
ranks and vote with the opposition. People's Justice party
(PKR) Vice President Azmin Ali told poloffs prior to the vote
on the motion that the party was hoping to keep a couple of
BN MPs away from Parliament during the vote to embarrass the
government. Poloffs observed that BN's Parliamentary Whip,
Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Najib, was in parliament for the
entire session. Several journalists told us that the DPM was
ensuring a maximum of BN MPs were present when the House
Speaker called for the vote.


5. (C) After Parliament passed the motion, Information
Minister Shabery Cheek told poloffs that BN did not have any
inclination that the motion would be defeated. He added, "it
was a reflection of the support for the PM." Echoing
Shabery, Minister Nazri Aziz told reporters, "there is no
question about Front MPs wanting to jump over to the other
side." The sole independent MP, Ibrahim Ali, told poloffs
the debate and the call for division clearly indicates that
the government has to take note of the importance of
opposition parties in a parliamentary democracy. He added,
"It is really a good feeling to keep the PM, DPM and other BN
leaders on their toes for a change."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) In hindsight, the June 23 vote was at most a target
of opportunity for the opposition influenced by SAPP's
announcement, and did not reflect a major effort by Anwar and
the opposition. We doubt the opposition believed it had a
chance of defeating the motion, though some opposition
leaders hoped SAPP's position and the unpopularity of the
fuel price hikes would precipitate a few more BN MPs at least
staying away from the vote. Nevertheless, the motion's
passage gives a boost to Abdullah at the beginning of the new

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Parliamentary session and helps calm immediate fears that
more BN parliamentarians may break ranks.
KEITH