NO CONFIDENCE MOTION - DOES THE OPPOSITION HAVE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000523

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV MY
SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE MOTION - DOES THE OPPOSITION HAVE A
STRATEGY?

REF: KL 516 - DEFECTIONS FROM BN ABOUT TO BEGIN?

Classified By: DCM David Shear, reasons 1.4 (b and d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) There was much smoke but little fire on June19
concerning the announcement the day before that a ruling
coalition member party will introduce a parliamentary
no-confidence motion on the Prime Minister. Sabah
politicians have told us that the move was coordinated, but
opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) leaders' public
statements seemed out of step with expressions of support
from Anwar Ibrahim and his PAS opposition coalition partners.
While the Prime Minister and other BN leaders have spoken
forcefully against the move, we doubt that UMNO has yet to
devise a strategy for countering the move. The BN Supreme
Council is meeting this afternoon to determine how to respond
to the defection of the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) in the
conspicuous absence of Deputy Prime Minister Najib, who is
vacationing in the UK through this weekend. What happens on
Monday, when SAPP president Yong said he would introduce the
no-confidence motion, may come down to how parliament speaker
Pandikar Amin Mulia, a Sabah native, interprets house rules
on the introduction of such motions. End Summary.

Opposition Not Quite Fully Coordinated?
-------------- --------------

2. (C) BN component parties in Sabah appear to have been
informed of the June 18 SAPP (Sabah Progressive Party)
announcement. In a June 18 meeting with Pol chief, PKR Vice
President and Sabah chief Jeffrey Kitingan acknowledged that
PKR-SAPP meetings had taken place, and indicated that SAPP,s
action had been coordinated with the other component parties.
UPKO Secretary General Wilfred Tangau said his party knew of
the SAPP announcement in advance. In public, Anwar Ibrahim
called SAPP,s announcement a courageous move, indicated his
own support for the no-confidence motion, and urged other
parties to follow suit. PAS leader Nik Aziz supported the
no-confidence motion and is also urging all BN component
parties to leave UMNO and join the Pakatan. On the other
hand, Penang Chief Minister and DAP Secretary General Lim
Guan Eng has questioned the very notion of a no-confidence
vote, wondering why SAPP had not simply left the coalition.
This view was reflected by Sabah DAP chief Hiew King Cheu in
a June 19 conversation with Pol chief. Hiew said the
announcement by SAPP President Yong Teck Lee represented no
coherent strategy but merely personal hubris. Meanwhile, the
extent to which SAPP members support party president Yong
Teck Lee's June 18 announcement remains unclear.
Malaysiakini quoted SAPP deputy president Raymond Tan as
stating that he was "confused and embarrassed" by the move.

Ruling Coalition Reactions -- Where's Najib?
-------------- --------------

3. (C) PM Abdullah maintained, without further elaboration,
that Yong was defecting because his "personal greed" had not
been satisfied. The government-controlled New Straits Times
denounced the SAPP shrilly, headlining its June 18 edition
"Double Cross," portraying Yong Teck Lee as "uncouth" and
"irresponsible." A raft of UMNO and BN leaders have
separately denounced the move in public. BN component
parties from Sarawak reportedly have expressed support for
the PM, while two other BN component parties from Sabah, the
UPKO and the PBS, have yet to declare themselves. As we
draft this report, the BN Supreme Council is reportedly
meeting in order to decide how to manage SAPP's betrayal.
Absent from the meeting, and from Malaysia, is Deputy Prime
Minister Najib, who remains in the UK on vacation and from
whom we have yet to hear a reaction to yesterday's events.


Is There a Pakatan Strategy?
--------------

4. (C) PKR vice president Jeffrey Kitingan told Pol Chief on
June 18 that Pakatan originally sought the no confidence vote
during the first session of Parliament, planning to attach it
to a major bill, but no such legislation came up. As a
result opposition leaders now want to go straight to the
no-confidence vote when Parliament resumes on June 23.
According to Kitingan, the assumption is that there would
then be a snap election, and the PKR is confident of doing
even better than in March, especially with the economy. He
said the goal was to change the government by December at the
latest due to the worry that if Najib takes over "he will be
another Mahathir," i.e., be more capable than the present PM.

It Could Be Up to the Speaker of the House
-------------- --------------

KUALA LUMP 00000523 002 OF 002



5. (C) As reported reftel, Minister for the Parliament
Nazri Aziz stated June 18 that the Parliamentary Standing
Order required that motions of no-confidence could not
possibly be tabled on June 23 because notice for all motions
must be given in writing 14 days in advance. An "emergency
motion" could be tabled with only two day notice, but this
would require approval by BN-appointed Speaker Pandikar Amin
Mulia. Parliamentary rules provide the Speaker with a great
deal of flexibility, stipulating that he can reject an
emergency motion request if it is not "specific, of public
interest, and urgent." The Speaker recently rejected an
opposition motion on the Burma relief issue on the basis that
it failed to meet these criteria. On June 18 Pandikar
indicated that he would make no decision until he actually
saw a proposed motion, adding that he had received nothing as
yet.

KEITH