DEFECTIONS FROM BN ABOUT TO BEGIN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000516 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV MY SUBJECT: DEFECTIONS FROM BN ABOUT TO BEGIN? Classified By: DCM David Shear, reasons 1.4 (b and d) 1.(C) Summary. A small Sabah-based component party of PM Abdullah,s ruling coalition has announced plans to introduce a no-confidence motion in Prime Minister Abdullah on Monday, June 23. Whether the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) will be allowed to introduce the motion and the extent to which other ruling coalition members back it remains to be seen. Our sources reported that Anwar planned to convene an "emergency" meeting of the PKR leadership on the evening of June 18. This could be the opening salvo of Anwar's campaign to have BN MPs defect to the opposition -- or not. Anwar has been stating publicly for some time that he has the 30 votes necessary to form a new ruling coalition, but it remains unclear whether or not he has been bluffing. Given parliamentary rules as interpreted by the ruling coalition, it is also unclear at this point whether SAPP will even be allowed to introduce the motion as early as Monday. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Sabah Progressive Party, a member of the ruling BN (Barisan Nasional) coalition with two MPs, announced on June 18 plans to introduce a no-confidence motion against PM Abdullah's government when parliament resumes on June 23. In recent days the rhetoric from both sides has escalated, with de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim reiterating his promise to oust the BN government by September. The Government-controlled press has responded by giving front page coverage to component party leaders' denials that they intend to leave the BN fold. Denials notwithstanding, a number of Sabah BN MPs reportedly were conspicuously absent from events associated with PM Abdullah's June 16-17 visit to Kota Kinabalu. Several BN heavyweights, including BN Secretary General Adnan Tengku Mansor, reportedly are in Sabah attempting to head off any defections. ¶3. (C) SAPP President Yong Teck Lee has been among the more outspoken Sabah politicians since the March 8 election on Sabah's grievances vis a vis the central government. Yong told reporters that he supported a no-confidence motion because, inter alia, UMNO had not done enough to develop Sabah's economy or solve the problem of illegal immigration. June 18 press reports also speculated that rather than join the opposition, the SAPP and other Sabah component parties may be planning to set up an independent bloc of up to 25 MPs (virtually the entire BN delegation from Sabah). ¶4. (C) Polcouns, currently in Kota Kinabalu, met on June 18 with Joseph Pairin Kitingan, President of Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS),a small BN component party holding three seats in Parliament. Kitingan indicated that his party distrusted Anwar and would "stick it out with the BN for the time being," but he nevertheless expressed disappointment in the Government's inaction on Sabah's priorities and said he hoped for a change of leadership in the BN. PKR Sabah chief Jeffrey Kitingan told polcouns on June 18 that SAPP would make the first move, possibly leaving the BN as early as June 23, and that other parties or MPs would follow. ¶5. (C) On June 18 Nazri Aziz, the Minister in the Prime Minister,s Department responsible for Parliament, maintained that a no-confidence motion could not possibly be tabled on June 23 because notice for all motions must be given in writing 14 days in advance. He added that an "emergency motion" could be tabled with only one day notice, but this would require approval by BN-appointed Speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia. Pandikar himself is a veteran Sabah politician and he recently resigned his position as an UMNO division chief in the interest of assuming a more "neutral" image as Speaker. PKR Sabah chief Kitingan said Pandikar had good relations with some in the opposition and claimed that Pandikar had even considered joining the opposition before his appointment as Speaker. ¶5. (C) Comment: In itself the SAPP's defection from the ruling coalition would put only a minor dent in the BN's majority. This could nevertheless be the opening salvo of Anwar's campaign to have BN MPs defect to the opposition -- or not. Our sources reported that Anwar planned to convene an "emergency" meeting of the PKR leadership on the evening of June 18. Anwar has been stating publicly for some time that he has the 30 votes necessary to form a new ruling coalition, but it remains unclear whether or not he has been bluffing. Given Nazri's statement, it is also unclear at this point whether SAPP will be allowed to introduce the motion as early as Monday. KUALA LUMP 00000516 002 OF 002 KEITH