PM ADVISOR LIM ON REFORMS AND ABDULLAH'S EVENTUAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000411

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: PM ADVISOR LIM ON REFORMS AND ABDULLAH'S EVENTUAL
DEPARTURE

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 0408

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES R. KEITH, REASON 1.4 (B AND D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador hosted Prime Ministerial
Political Secretary Vincent Lim to dinner on the evening of
May 14. (Note: This dinner occurred prior to former PM
Mahathir,s May 19 anouncement that he would quit the ruling
party. See reftel for Embassy reporting on Mahathir,s
surprise announcement.) The world-weary Lim appeared
resigned to the Abdullah administration's eventual departure,
although Lim seemed to think that it would be later rather
than sooner. He acknowledged that the PM had not been a
strong leader. The PM's announcement of judicial and other
reforms, while important and far reaching, had come too
late, and he conveyed the clear impression that the PM's
program faced resistance within UMNO. Lim volunteered that
the Prime Minister was spending more time than ever in
Parliament answering members' questions and that this was
part of his post-March 8 strategy of transparency but his
tone suggested that it may be as much to deter ruling
coalition members from joining the opposition. Lim
downplayed the chances of an opposition majority in
parliament while at the same time lamenting that opposition
leader Anwar Ibrahim could acquire excessive power depending
on how he engineered a takeover. Lim was confident that DPM
Najib remained loyal to the PM, that the two had an
understanding about how to effect the succession, and that
all Najib had to do was wait patiently. Lim sounded tired
and dispirited, perhaps worn down by his PM's political
vicissitudes, his inability to implement a thoroughgoing
reform program, the political uncertainties after March 8,
and the prospect of the PM's eventual departure from office.
The DCM also attended the dinner. END SUMMARY.
The Prospects for Reform
--------------

2. (C) Lim said PM Abdullah did the right thing by
supporting judicial reform and the establishment of an
anti-corruption commission, but he had promised these when
he came into office four years ago, and the move came too
late. On the future prospects for these reforms, Lim
commented resignedly that the PM was having to walk a fine
line between liberal cabinet members like Zaid Ibrahim, who
strongly advocated the reforms, and UMNO conservatives who
opposed reform like new Home Minister Syed Hamid. He
wondered aloud about the prospects for any successful
economic reform in Malaysia, noting that the Chinese economy
was growing rapidly while Malaysia seemed to be bogged down.


The Prime Minister's Parliamentary Strategy
--------------

3. (C) Lim volunteered that the Prime Minister had remained
in Parliament to respond to members' questions until 11 PM
the night before and that this had become a pattern for the
PM since the present session's opening. He indicated that
this was part of the PM's post-general election strategy of
openness, in which he was requiring that his cabinet
ministers, and not their deputies or their parliamentary
secretaries be present during question time. (Note: Lim
refused to be drawn out on another reason we had heard for
the PM's attentiveness to parliament: the need to ensure
that Sabah BN members don't jump the aisle to join the
opposition.) Lim acknowledged that televising parliamentary
sessions had been a public relations disaster at first, as
members had lost discipline and played to the camera, but
that floor debate had regained some of its civility since
the opening days, and he thought the cameras would remain.

A Fluid Political Scene
--------------

4. (C) Lim described the current political scene as highly
fluid but downplayed rumors that ruling coalition members
from Sabah would switch sides to join the opposition in
coming days. He said that it's in opposition leader Anwar
Ibrahim's interest to keep "stirring the pot" by keeping
maximum pressure on UMNO and its coalition partners but
hinted that he believes it's a bluff. Echoing what we've
heard from other UMNO quarters, Lim claimed the opposition
will be unready to assume power until it settles the
question of whether Malaysia should be an Islamic state.
This is a fundamental issue for PAS, Anwar's Islamist
opposition partner, and it's not one that can be easily
resolved. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) will never
agree to any formulation suggesting Malaysia is an Islamic
state, Lim said. (Comment: DPM Najib's public remark in
2007 that Malaysia is already an Islamic state helped to

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further alienate non-Malay components of BN. End Comment.)
He added that he thought the opposition was temperamentally
unready for rule because they had never thought they would
garner as many votes as they had during the election. The
fact that Anwar's Keadilan party had won so many seats came
as a shock to PAS and DAP, which had agreed among themselves
on which seats they would contest and gave the leftovers to
Keadilan. The opposition would not do nearly as well in the
next election, Lim commented. He nevertheless thought that
there were two scenarios in which Anwar could gain power.
One would be for him to convince enough BN members of
parliament to cross the aisle and join the opposition to
form a new majority. A much better scenario from Anwar's
point of view would be for a large number of UMNO members to
come over to his side. Without explaining what he meant,
Lim intoned curiously that if Anwar gained power by the
latter method he would have more power than Mahathir, he'd
be unstoppable, and we'd all regret it.

The UMNO Succession
--------------

5. (C) Turning to the question of political succession
within UMNO, Lim indicated that Prime Minister Abdullah and
Deputy Prime Minister had cut a deal. Echoing what we've
seen in the press on this subject, Lim said "it's a question
of when and not whom." "DPM Najib will be the PM's
successor, and all he has to do is wait," he emphasized.
Lim continued that Najib has been very careful and very
loyal to the Prime Minister since the March 8 election, "and
I've never seen them closer." He turned philosophical,
almost fatalistic about the PM's tenure in office. "The PM
is a decent, pious man with strong views about what's
right," Lim explained, "but he doesn,t have the drive that
Mahathir had."

COMMENT
--------------

6. (C) Lim struck us by turns as tired, dispirited,
disappointed, and uncertain. He appeared confident that the
opposition will fail to take over parliament any time soon
but at the same time he seemed disappointed with Abdullah's
performance and ultimate departure from office. Lim is one
of the "fourth floor boys" -- the group of young political
advisors that also includes Public Affairs Chief Kamal
Khalid -- who manage day-to-day political operations for the
Prime Minister. He is close to Prime Ministerial son-in-law
Khairy Jamaluddin, and appears to have shared in his
political colleagues' initial image as enthusiastic
reformers. Reading between the lines, it seemed that Lim
was trying to tell us that Abdullah's administration, along
with his "fourth floor boys" represented Malaysia's best
chance for reform and that neither an Anwar government nor
Najib's succession would offer such an opportunity.



KEITH