OPPOSITION SIGNALS IMMINENT EAST MALAYSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000377 SIPDIS FOR EAP AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SIGNALS IMMINENT EAST MALAYSIA DEFECTIONS FROM RULING COALITION REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 364 - ON EDGE OR STABILIZING? ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 340 - MALAYSIA'S FLUID SCENE Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) De facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and his lieutenants, both publicly and privately, are raising expectations of possible imminent defections by National Front (BN) MPs, particularly from East Malaysia. Senior Vice President of Anwar's PKR party Azmin Ali told us to expect a public announcement of initial defections May 17-18 in East Malaysia, where potential BN defectors are under "tremendous pressure, surveillance and threat" not to cross over to the opposition. PM Abdullah reportedly undertook emergency consultations with a small BN party from Sabah after the party issued a public ultimatum and insinuated it could change sides. Recent weeks have seen unprecedented public criticism by BN Sabah MPs against Abdullah's government for marginalizing Sabah and not recognizing the role that East Malaysia plays in keeping BN in power. Given UMNO's current anxieties over Anwar Ibrahim, the imminent announcement of several confirmed BN defections could deliver a shock to UMNO leadership and put increased pressure on PM Abdullah to step aside or take some forceful action to preserve UMNO's 51-year hold on power. End Summary. Defections Imminent? -------------- ¶2. (C) Senior Vice President of Anwar Ibrahim's Parti KeADILan Rakyat (PKR) and MP Azmin Ali, speaking to us on May 13 on the margins of a Parliament session, affirmed Anwar's claim made at a May 12 press conference that some BN parliamentarians would be defecting soon to PKR. Azmin predicted the defection of some BN members would be announced over the May 17-18 weekend from "the other side" (referring to Sabah and Sarawak) and added that Anwar will be there to receive the "defecting parties and Members of Parliament." Azmin said East Malaysian MPs are under "tremendous pressure, surveillance and threat" not to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat coalition. He described UMNO/BN Secretary General Tengku Adnan as a "gangster," who has been keeping a close watch on the MPs. Azmin added that the East Malaysian members of Parliament wanted to defect to Pakatan before the current session of Parliament ends on May 27. ¶3. (C) In response to our question of why the opposition would make such a move now before Anwar himself has entered Parliament, Azmin explained even if "one of us were to resign" (to set the stage for a by-election) the Election Commission would schedule the by-election at the very end of the mandatory 60-day period, giving BN and the Commission time to "manipulate the electoral roll" and guarantee that Anwar would lose the contest. Therefore it was better for the opposition to bring the defecting MPs from BN across, form an interim government, and then have a by-election for Anwar to contest and enter to Parliament. Once the Peoples Alliance obtains the mandate to form the government, it will immediately oust the current Election Commission Chairman, who is seen as able to block Anwar's chances of becoming an MP. ¶4. (C) Azmin alleged that Pakatan had the support of the army and the palace but was unsure about the police force, which was "divided" over the issue of a potential opposition takeover. He added that PKR leaders have approached DAP to rein in their party Chairman Karpal Singh, who recently has openly questioned the powers of the Malay royalty. It was essential to ensure the support of these traditional Malay rulers "when there is a change of government." Azmin also indicated that Pakatan leaders privately have been sending feelers to the army, police and the palace to assure them that a potential opposition government will not affect the position of the Malays, as claimed by Malay NGOs instigated by UMNO and the government controlled media. Azmin echoed recent statements by Anwar and his wife and Opposition Speaker Wan Azizah that Pakatan will continue uphold the Constitution, including the special position of the Malays and Islam, despite replacing UMNO's "Ketuanan Melayu" (Malay Supremacy) concept with "Ketuanan Rakyat" (Peoples Supremacy). ¶5. (C) Information Minister and UMNO leader Shabery Cheek KUALA LUMP 00000377 002 OF 002 told us in Parliament on May 13, "there is no credence whatsoever to Anwar' claims that East Malaysian Members of Parliament will defect to Pakatan Rakyat." Meanwhile, also on May 13, the President of SAPP (Sabah Peoples Progressive Party),a member of the BN coalition with two MPs, gave a public ultimatum to the Prime Minister to resolve Sabah's grievances by August or face the prospect of defections. PM Abdullah took the situation serious enough to meet with SAPP leaders on May 12-13, according to the local blog "Malaysian Insider," and reportedly headed off their possible defection by assuring them that Sabah's concerns would be addressed. ¶6. (SBU) Recent weeks have seen unprecedented criticism by BN Sabah MPs claiming that the Federal government has treated the state like a "step child," and maintaining that the ruling coalition is not recognizing the role that Sabah and Sarawak are playing to keep BN in power. The two states combined have 54 seats of BN's 140 seats in Parliament. Ghafur Salleh, an UMNO warlord and MP from Sabah, stated in Parliament May 12 that Sabah MPs were insulted to be given only three ministerial posts when it was Sabah and Sarawak MPs who had enabled Barisan Nasional to secure a simple majority in the recent general election. On the other hand, he lamented "One state has seven ministers (referring to Johor),another state lost its state government and yet has four ministers (referring to Selangor)." Ghafur had surprised UMNO leaders by declining a Deputy Minister's position when the Cabinet was announced on March 18. He stated that those ministerial positions allocated to Sabah MPs were very minor. Ghafur drew wild applause from opposition MPs when he remarked that Sabah wants "justice" (an obviously intended double entendre with reference also to Anwar's Peoples Justice Party). Another Sabah MP, Anifah Aman (Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman's brother) openly stated in Parliament that there is nothing wrong in switching parties when Sabah is marginalized. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Rumors of BN defections have spiked over the past few days, and the Kuala Lumpur political circuit is awash in speculation, particularly regarding East Malaysia. The opposition alliance requires 30 BN MPs to defect in order to claim the majority in Parliament and bring down Abdullah's government. Given UMNO's current anxieties over Anwar Ibrahim, however, even the imminent announcement of several confirmed BN defections could deliver a shock to UMNO leadership and put increased pressure on Prime Minister Abdullah to step aside or take some forceful action to preserve UMNO's 51-year hold on power. KEITH