IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES - MALAYSIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KUALA LUMPUR 000357 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP - JANET SPECK STATE ALSO FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/EP AND OES TREASURY FOR OASIA STATE FOR USTR - WEISEL AND BELL STATE FOR FEDERAL RESERVE AND EXIMBANK STATE FOR FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO TCURRAN USDOC FOR 4430/MAC/EAP/BOYD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID ECON ETRD PGOV PREL SENV MY SUBJECT: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES - MALAYSIA REF: STATE 39410 KUALA LUMP 00000357 001.11 OF 005 Summary and Introduction -------------- ¶1. (U) Rising global prices for major food commodities so far are having limited impact on their availability to Malaysian consumers. Long-standing price controls on many food staples have kept such items affordable, but have also contributed to some spot shortages. While it is only about 65% self-sufficient in rice production, the country's major sources of imported rice (Thailand and Vietnam) as well as other food crops have remained reliable. However, Malaysia produces neither wheat nor soybeans, and imports about 87% of its corn demand. The government is increasingly treating the issue as a critical problem at the cabinet level, and is devoting significant additional resources to mitigate its potential impact. The government has responded to recent global price increases by announcing an expensive new program to increase domestic rice production (along with fruit and vegetable cultivation),primarily in the East Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. The government claims that new paddy cultivation in those states will not adversely impact remaining rain forest on Borneo. ¶2. (SBU) The government's new plans followed its electoral drubbing in the March 8 national elections. Malaysia's increasing inflation rate, and widespread concern that the government would be decreasing subsidies (particularly for fuel, but also for food commodities), contributed to the ruling coalition's poor showing. The money being allocated to East Malaysia reflects the large amount of uncultivated land available there to increase food production; it also rewards two states that were crucial to maintaining the government's parliamentary majority. The government is likely to maintain and even increase its support levels to keep a lid on prices, and its relatively strong financial situation should allow it to continue doing so for some time. However, long term subsidies will probably not be sustainable, especially if the government budget deficit persists. Malaysia's newly-energized political opposition will keep the focus on government action to address rising prices. However, we do not believe rising food prices will result in social instability or unrest. Although the opposition may try to exploit the issue, food price inflation will not likely play a major role in the post election political drama playing out in Kuala Lumpur. Demand -------------- ¶3. (U) Rice, wheat, corn and soybeans are the principal agricultural commodities consumed in Malaysia. Corn is used mostly for feed, and soybeans are used for both feed and food. Malaysia is a net importer of these commodities; of the four commodities, only rice is produced domestically to a significant extent. Malaysia is about 65-70% self-sufficient in rice and about 13% self-sufficient in corn; neither wheat nor soybeans are grown domestically. There has been no recent discernable change in consumption patterns in Malaysia for these commodity crops. ¶4. (U) Each Malaysian adult consumes an average of 77 kg of rice a year. Malaysia has long controlled the retail price of standard grade rice, which currently ranges between RM1.60 (US$0.50) and RM1.80 (US$0.56) per kilogram. This policy largely shields lower income Malaysians from the effects of rising global rice prices; the consumption of this grade of rice is estimated to be around 30% of the total national consumption. Prices of uncontrolled rice varieties, consumed by middle and higher income Malaysians, have risen over the past two years. For example, the price of "Fragrant" rice rose about 5% in 2007 and another 5% in the first quarter of 2008 and "Basmati" rice rose in price by 15.2% in 2007 and by 11.7% in the first quarter of 2008. Malaysia has a relatively high per capita income (USD 6721 in 2007),a result of strong economic growth over several decades; steadily rising income has not significantly affected short term food consumption patterns. ¶5. (U) Rice imports to Malaysia are sourced primarily from Thailand and Vietnam, and average between 650,000 and 700,000 tons annually. BERNAS, a government-linked corporation, regulates the rice industry in Malaysia under authority granted to it by the government. BERNAS is the "buyer of last resort" for paddy farmers as well as the sole importer of rice for the country. BERNAS handles about 40 - 50% of Malaysia's total rice supply. The government is considering a proposal to give it sole authority to monitor and ensure that paddy KUALA LUMP 00000357 002.14 OF 005 land is used only for planting rice. Supply -------------- ¶6. (U) Although Malaysia is not experiencing major shortages of commodities yet, higher input costs have narrowed profit margins, especially for crops like rice that are subject to price controls. The government has announced plans to increase the country's rice production to meet possible future shortages, however, including a RM 4 billion (USD 1.3 billion) plan to plant rice and vegetables in East Malaysia. ¶7. (U) Wheat is not produced in Malaysia. The Malaysian government controls certain domestic wheat prices; it last allowed price increases for retail general-purpose wheat flour in May 2007 (the first increase in a decade). That price hike, and price increases for wheat types not subject to control, has not impacted wheat consumption, although millers and commercial bakers have complained about narrow margins and losses. ¶8. (U) Malaysia imports about 87% of its corn supply. Soybean is not cultivated in the country. Malaysia depends heavily on feed imports for its livestock sector. While the cost of feed has risen some 20% in the past year, prices of pork and poultry have also risen, mitigating the effect of higher feed costs on farmers. ¶9. (U) Products derived from oil palm cultivation constitute Malaysia's most significant agricultural export commodity (rubber and cocoa also are important export commodities). Not surprisingly, oil palm is the only Malaysian crop that has experienced significant growth as a result of increased global prices. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first quarter of 2008 were up 23% from the first quarter of 2007. Political Impact -------------- ¶10. (SBU) It is unlikely that higher food process will lead to social instability or unrest, but rising food prices come at an extremely inconvenient time for the ruling UMNO party, still reeling from its shocking setbacks in the March 8 elections. Although opposition sources privately have told us they understand the government's no-win situation, we do not doubt that the resurgent opposition will try to make political hay by allowing the government to take the blame for rising prices. The GOM may be aware that new subsidies are probably not sustainable over the long term, but, with public confidence already at a low point, the leadership will be anxious to prevent further erosion of support due to perceived inaction on the price increases. Economic Impact -------------- ¶11. (U) Prices of food and other commodities are rising in Malaysia. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to a 13-month high of 2.8% year-on-year in March from a low of 1.4% in June 2007. For January to March, the CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year. Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded the most significant increase of 4.9%. The index including housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 1.3%, and the transport index rose 0.9%. Malaysia's inflation rate remains relatively low compared to some of its neighbors, such as Singapore and Vietnam. ¶12. (U) As Malaysia's inflation is cost-pushed, the pass-through of global prices into domestic prices was somewhat mitigated by several factors including the strengthened ringgit, which has appreciated by 5.3% to RM 3.15 against the dollar since the beginning of 2008. Also, food accounts for 31.4% of the basket of goods for measuring price increases in the CPI, which includes price-controlled food items such as cooking oil, chicken, bread, flour, sugar, salt, preserved fish and locally produced rice. In 2007, the government spent RM 53 billion (USD 17 billion) to subsidize oil and gas, which helped to alleviate the cost of production and transportation. That amount ended up being much higher than the preliminary forecast of RM 40 billion for 2007, and the figure is believed to be climbing still in response to global crude oil price increases (though more recent statistics are unavailable). After its poor showing at the polls in March, the government has delayed its plan to cut subsidies on domestic fuel, though it is considering a plan to reallocate fuel KUALA LUMP 00000357 003.17 OF 005 distribution so that the subsidies are tilted towards lower income consumers. ¶13. (U) Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, recently warned that food prices would continue rising if recent trends towards cultivation of biofuel crops, and conversion of rice fields to other uses, continued. However, the Institute recently revised downwards the inflation forecast from 3.5% to 3% for 2008 as the government has indicated that it will not substantially reduce its oil subsidy. Bank Negara expects inflation to be contained at between 2.5 to 3% this year. ¶14. (U) Bank Negara is expected to keep its policy intervention rate unchanged at 3.5%. Despite the recent upturn in inflation, the banking system is flush with excess liquidity as the economy shows signs of slowing growth. Bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz has indicated reluctance to increase interest rates to discourage food price increases; rather, she has said Malaysia and other countries need to increase supply, improve distribution, and improve the incentive structure for food producers. ¶15. (U) Malaysia enjoys a strong current account surplus, amounting to RM99.4 billion (USD 31.6 billion) in the balance of payments in ¶2007. The higher costs of importing wheat, rice, sweet corn and soya bean, which accounted for 5.3% of total imports in 2007, is not likely to have a significant impact on the goods account and the balance of payments. Moreover, increased exports of palm oil due to rising prices and a stronger ringgit should offset somewhat the higher costs of imports. Increasing Rice Production in Eastern Malaysia -------------- - ¶16. (U) To reduce Malaysia's partial dependency on imported rice, the government of Malaysia (GOM) recently announced plans to identify suitable land for large-scale rice cultivation in the East Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. Sabah Department of Agriculture Senior Research Officer Datin Elizabeth Malangkig explained to ESTHoff that Sabah will identify for new rice production idle land that is already earmarked for agricultural production. Sabah is currently just 35% self-sufficient in rice production, but hopes to be 60% self-sufficient by 2010. In addition to encouraging increased acreage under rice cultivation, the state government also plans to install irrigation systems in existing rice paddies to increase rice yield to two or three harvests a year; most such paddies now are cultivated only during the rainy season. For instance, in Sabah's four main rice paddy districts (Kota Belud, Tuaran, Papar and Penampang),10,000 out of 13,854 acres only produce rice during the rainy season. ¶17. (U) Though it is Malaysia's largest state, Sarawak is thinly populated and has greater agricultural potential in comparison to much of peninsular West Malaysia. Sarawak Land Development Minister Datuk Seri Dr. James Masing has emphasized that no trees will be felled nor forests cleared for paddy planting. He claimed that forests do not exist on the flat land that has been identified for new paddy cultivation. Sarawak currently has five million hectares identified for rice cultivation, located in the coastal areas of Paloh in central Sarawak, the Rajang River delta, and in parts of Limbang and Lawas in northern Sarawak. In a recent trip to the state, MOA Minister Mustapa Mohamad noted Bintangor as having the greatest potential for big farming projects. ¶18. (U) Developing Sarawak into a rice cultivation center poses many challenges, as its geography includes a mix of swampy coastal areas, narrow and hilly rural areas and a mountainous interior. Nevertheless, on April 27 Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud announced plans to combine large parcels of state land with nearby private land to create large paddy estates, which will provide Malaysia with "total food security in the long-run." Taib claims that the move to estate rice farming would benefit current landowners, who would become shareholders in the larger estates, as well as corporate investors and the government. Environmental Impact -------------- ¶19. (U) Both Sarawak and Sabah's rice cultivation plans have raised concern among environmentalists. Increasing rice production in East Malaysia could impact the world's second largest rainforest. In KUALA LUMP 00000357 004.3 OF 005 early April, the governments of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei Darussalam agreed to a tri-national Heart of Borneo (HOB) strategic plan of action to preserve this fragile ecology from further deforestation and fragmentation due to logging and palm oil plantations. A major increase in rice cultivation through large paddy estates constitutes another potential threat to the HOB. ¶20. (U) The GOM's call for increased rice production has spurred current rice-producing states in West Malaysia to find ways to meet this demand. The Kemubu Agricultural and Development Authority (Kada) in the northern state of Kelantan recently requested RM18 million (USD 5.7 million) from the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) to buy fertilizer and lime to treat the soil and improve yields, which the MOA has approved. In Kota Bharu near the Thai border, paddy farmers cultivate rice on land with high soil acidity, which prevents high rice yields. By treating the soil before the next planting season, farmers hope to boost their yields by as much as 20 per cent. The long-term environmental impact increased fertilization will have on the local ecology represents an area for environmentalists to monitor in the future. Government Policy Response -------------- ¶21. (U) The GOM has announced that the ceiling retail price of standard grade rice will remain at current levels in order to ease the burden on lower income Malaysians. Although the government does not directly subsidize locally-grown rice, it spends a considerable amount on fertilizer and other concessions to rice farmers to help control prices. This type of government support for rice farmers increased from RM800 (US$250) million in 2006 to RM900 (US$281) million in 2007. ¶22. (U) The Cabinet Committee on Inflation, which includes all relevant ministries, has been meeting regularly to consider possible approaches to mitigating the impact of inflation, in particular regarding food (though the committee is also addressing other sectors such as steel, where import restrictions are contributing to higher prices). Domestic and Consumer Affairs Minister Shahrir Abdul Samad recently stated that the government soon would adopt new measures to tackle rising food prices. Shahrir said the government is working on raising production of and narrowing subsidies on locally produced basic foodstuffs. He ruled out for now the introduction of a special subsidy on imported rice, which is not subject to price controls (though import prices are managed through BERNAS' monopoly). Sharir has also indicated that Malaysia is considering a direct subsidy for domestic rice production. Such a subsidy would be in addition to the RM 4 billion recently announced by the Prime Minister to increase rice production in Sarawak and Sabah, which by itself represents a significant increase in government funding (though such new production would not have an impact in the short term). ¶23. (U) On May 6 Minister of Agriculture Datuk Mustapa Mohamed announced that BERNAS had been instructed to raise by 9000 tons (to 20000 tons) the monthly supply of standard grade rice. He added that the price of this rice variety will remain the same. Mustapa added that Malaysia has a stockpile of 550,000 tons of such rice (sufficient for three months). To counter the increased temptation to smuggle this relatively-low priced rice to Thailand and other countries, the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs is stationing more enforcement offers at border crossings. ¶24. (U) Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop has expressed concern about the increasing cost to the government of subsidies, for both fuel and food. He has noted that the increased government spending on subsidies makes it more difficult to achieve the targeted fiscal deficit reduction to 3.1% of GDP, which would be a reduction from the 2007 fiscal deficit of 3.2%. Comment -------------- ¶25. (SBU) Reliable suppliers, the appreciation of the ringgit, and Malaysia's relative wealth compared to its neighbors has insulated the population somewhat from rising global food prices. Wealthier Malaysians have so far been able to absorb rising prices, while lower-income Malaysians have benefited from price controls on staple food items. Much more attention has been focused in Malaysia on long-expected changes to government subsidies on fuel, which receive KUALA LUMP 00000357 005.3 OF 005 significantly more funding than food subsidies. However, the government's budget deficit means that large subsidy increases will not be sustainable over time. The government's imposition of price controls has caused in the past occasional shortages of such products as sugar and cooking oil (shortages that were due in part to smuggling to Singapore and Thailand). It is probably only a matter of time before rice shortages appear as well. But given the close attention Malaysia's newly-energized opposition is giving to the issue, the government will find it difficult to enact more fiscally-responsible policies in the near term. KEITH