POST-ELECTION SCENE REMAINS VOLATILE, PER MARCH 14

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000185 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EAP AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL ASEC MY SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION SCENE REMAINS VOLATILE, PER MARCH 14 EVENTS REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Events on March 14 demonstrated that Malaysia's post-election political scene remains volatile, while the question of Abdullah's longevity in office remains far from settled. Abdullah's UMNO party staged a short-lived low-octane protest in opposition-held Penang on March 14 in support of Malay rights, as the government-controlled Malay media continued attacks against the Chinese-led Democratic Action Party (DAP). The go-ahead for the protest came from UMNO national leaders, according to an Embassy source. The ruler of Perlis state reportedly swore in a candidate of his own choice as Chief Minister, turning down the candidate endorsed by PM Abdullah. The states of Terengganu and Perak have not yet settled on new state governments, though both could be resolved in the next few days. Elected UMNO MP Mukhriz Mahathir on March 14 explicitly called on PM Abdullah to resign, echoing calls by his father, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Former UMNO leader Zaid Ibrahim called on politicians on all sides to stop fueling racial tensions. Privately, Zaid told us UMNO has no model for positive reform and would likely fall-back on harsher Malay nationalism, which would alienate UMNO's non-Malay partners. He also said UMNO elder statesman Tengku Razaleigh had met with Abdullah and could play a role helping UMNO move forward. End Summary. Short-Lived Protest by UMNO in Penang -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following days of government-controlled media attacks against Penang Democratic Action Party (DAP) Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and his statement of doing away with Malay preferences under New Economic Policy (NEP),United Malays National Organization (UMNO) supporters staged a brief protest in Penang's capital of Georgetown. According to press sources, between 500 to 1,000 UMNO members headed by Penang UMNO State Secretary Azhar Ibrahim (Penang UMNO State Chief is PM Abdullah) gathered in front of the state government office chanting slogans such as "Don't sideline the Malays," "Do not abolish the NEP," and "(opposition leader) Anwar Ibrahim is a traitor." After only 15 minutes or so, the police gave orders to disperse and the crowd quickly and peacefully complied. The Inspector General of Police Musa Hassan earlier warned people not to participate in the illegal assembly. He stated that the widely circulated short message service (SMS) calling for a gathering at the building after Friday prayers was illegal and those who defy will be arrested for participating in an illegal assembly. According to press sources, however, there were no arrests. ¶3. (C) An Embassy contact told us that he learned of the planned protest from a very early morning call from a Defense Ministry official, who warned our contact that national-level UMNO officials had decided to proceed with a protest in Penang. Reports of the planned demonstration caused concern among the public against the backdrop of public UMNO calls to defend Malay rights and the memory of 1969 race riots. ¶4. (SBU) A handful of UMNO supporters attempted to stage a protest on March 14 against the incoming opposition government in Selangor state, which surrounds Kuala Lumpur. The event attracted very few people and went almost unnoticed. Perlis Ruler Goes Against PM Abdullah's Choice -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) The ruler (Raja) of Perlis state reportedly has gone against the wishes of Prime Minister Abdullah and refused to reappoint Shahidan Kassim as Perlis Chief Minister. Instead, the Raja on March 14 appointed Mohammed Isa Sabu, another UMNO state assemblyman. The Raja acted under the Perlis state constitution, which empowers him to appoint the person he believes has the confidence of the majority of the state assembly. The controversy led UMNO supporters of Shaidan members from Perlis to stage two small protests on March 14 in Kuala Lumpur and the administrative capital of Putrajaya, respectively. (Note: Under former Prime Minister Mahathir, it was unheard of for traditional Malay rulers to go against the Prime Minister's directives on KUALA LUMP 00000185 002 OF 003 Chief Minister appointments. End Note.) Still no Chief Minister in Terengganu -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Former Chief Minister of Terengganu Idris Jusoh was expected to be sworn in again on March 9, but hours before the ceremony was to take place and after some 100 guests had arrived, the palace announced that the ceremony had been delayed indefinitely. On March 14, the UMNO-linked newspaper New Straits Times reported that "UMNO is still undecided as to who should become (chief minister) after Idris Jusoh seemed unable to garner support to continue with his stewardship. It would seem that several UMNO assemblymen not in favour of Idris have mustered enough influence on the palace to withhold consent." The Sultan of Terengganu is currently serving his 5-year term as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, or King of Malaysia, and he is expected to make a decision on March 15 when he returns to the state. Perak Moving Toward Resolution -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Regent of Perak, Raja Dr. Nazrin Shah, abruptly canceled the investiture ceremony for the state's new chief minister on March 13 until all assemblymen from the new People's Front (Barisan Rakyat) coalition (DAP, PKR and PAS) agreed in writing to support Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin (PAS) as the new chief minister. The Regent also tasked the new opposition based coalition to solve their differences regarding the apportionment of the 10 state executive councilors (exco members). Working throughout the evening, the new coalition partners agreed to Nizar's appointment and settled on appointing 6 exco members from DAP, 3 from PKR and 1 from PAS. On March 14, PKR deputy president Syed Husin Ali announced that all sides had compromised and the final agreements had been submitted to the palace. Party officials believe the swearing in ceremony may be held as early as March 15. Mukhriz Calls for Abdullah to Resign -------------- ¶8. (C) Mukhriz Mahathir, the son of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and newly elected UMNO MP, explicitly called on PM Abdullah to resign on March 14, and told reporters he had sent a letter to this effect to Abdullah on March 12. Mukhriz's letter stated that, "the only way to successfully revive the coalition, UMNO and the nation is through your (Abdullah's) resignation." He added that, "If you do not resign in the near future, I fear the situation will become untenable...." Mukhriz' father had earlier come out publicly advising Abdullah to step down. Mukhriz is the first serving UMNO leader to call explicitly for Abdullah's resignation. Reportedly, Mukhriz had intended to make his stance known in the few days immediately after the March 8 election, but a heavy presence of police officers at the venue of the announcement helped to convince him to delay. Former UMNO Leader: All Sides Should Stop Fueling Tensions -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Former UMNO leader from Kelantan state Zaid Ibrahim told the internet news site Malaysiakini that all sides should stop fueling racial sentiments following the March 8 elections. "The political landscape has shifted so much and it's a dangerous time for mischievous people and racists in this country to exploit," he said. He criticized the mainstream media for stirring chauvinist Malay sentiments. Zaid also criticized arrogant statements from the opposition DAP party, particularly Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng's comments on the end of NEP. UMNO: No Ready Model for Reform -------------- ¶10. (C) Polchief met privately with Zaid Ibrahim on March 14. Zaid, who did not gain approval from PM Abdullah to run in the recent election, said he personally believed Abdullah should resign. Zaid stated that UMNO had no ready model for positive reform of the party following its dramatic March 8 election set-back. He could not identify a reform faction within the party. Instead, UMNO hardliners would fall back on Malay nationalism and push Abdullah to stake out a strong pro-Malay position. This, however, risked creating racial conflict and could drive away UMNO's non-Malay partners from the National Front coalition. Zaid questioned why Ong Ka Ting, the president of UMNO's Chinese partner the Malaysian KUALA LUMP 00000185 003 OF 003 Chinese Association (MCA),would announce he is not available for the pending cabinet and wondered whether MCA would remain in the National Front (BN) coalition. (Note: Other contacts in Kuala Lumpur told us that a debate continued within MCA on whether to remain in BN. End Note.) Zaid said UMNO would have a difficult time fomenting Malay protests, if the party decided to do so, as he did not believe Malays would spontaneously take to the streets in large numbers for UMNO. ¶11. (C) Zaid said UMNO elder stateman Tengku Razaleigh was possibly the only senior UMNO figure that Abdullah could bring in who was still widely respected and not corrupt. Razaleigh had met with PM Abdullah over the past day or so, Zaid said without sharing more details. (Note: On March 14, we saw many vehicles parked at Razaleigh's home, which is close to the Ambassador's Residence. Razaleigh's initial public comments after the March 8 election strongly implied the need for an UMNO leadership change. End Note.) KEITH