MALAYSIA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN UNDER WAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUALA LUMPUR 000140 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL MY SUBJECT: MALAYSIA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN UNDER WAY REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 90 - ELECTION PRIMER ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 95 - ELECTION DATE SET ¶C. 07 KUALA LUMPUR 1733 - UMNO'S ANNUAL MEETING ¶D. 07 KUALA LUMPUR 1613 - BERSIH'S STREET PROTEST Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b, d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Malaysia's 12th general election campaign kicked off on February 24 after more than 1,500 candidates filed nomination papers for the 222 parliament and 505 state seats. Cooperation among Malaysia's opposition parties ensured some 94 percent of all the seats will see head-to-head contests between one candidate from the ruling National Front coalition and one opposition candidate. The dominant United Malays National Organization (UMNO) fielded 117 parliamentary seats with the other 105 seats split among the ruling coalition's 13 other parties. Even before Election Day, the National Front secured eight parliamentary seats and two state assembly seats in contests in which there was only one candidate, while the opposition Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) took one state assembly seat in Kelantan. Both the ruling coalition and the major opposition parties focused the start of the campaign period with highly publicized releases of party platforms known locally as election manifestos. All the parties focused on common themes of unity, racial harmony, and national prosperity. Pending decreases in national subsidies and the corresponding rises in gasoline and commodity prices dominated the early days of the campaign. The longer campaign period seems to have led the National Front to alter their campaign strategy incorporating more door to door campaigning and living-room chats, presenting a friendlier, more intimate approach to politics. Aided by the mainstream media's blatant bias for the ruling coalition and a dominant grassroots organization, the National Front has moved slowly and methodological at the beginning to the 13-day campaign period, confident it will collect the spoils on election day. End Summary. Straight Fights in Majority of Seats -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Malaysia's 12th general election campaign kicked off on February 24 after more than 1,500 candidates filed nomination papers for the 222 parliament and 505 state seats. The nomination process officially marked the start of a 13-day campaigning period ahead of the polling day on March ¶8. The 14-member National Front (Barisan Nasional or BN) coalition is contesting in all the seats. The opposition, for the first time, has managed to avoid almost all three-cornered fights by fielding only one candidate in 94% of the 222 parliament seats, except in the East Malaysian Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak where the opposition parties failed to reach an agreement. Through this arrangement, former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Peoples Justice Party (PKR) is contesting in 97 parliament seats, Islamic opposition party PAS in 66 and the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in 47 with the balance by other minor political parties especially in Sarawak. In the last general election held in 2004, BN won 199 of 219 parliamentary seats and the opposition 20 including 12 by DAP, 6 by PAS, 1 by PKR and another by an independent candidate. ¶3. (SBU) The dominant United Malays National Organization (UMNO) got the lion's share of the 222 Parliament seats contested by the National Front coalition with 117 parliamentary seats, followed by the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) (40),United Sarawak Native Inheritance Party (PBB) (14),People's Movement Party (Gerakan) (12), Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) (9),and the other coalition members sharing the balance. The nominations also saw both the BN component and opposition parties dropping around 35 percent of their incumbents, which is typical in Malaysia's electoral cycle. However, the opposition parties seem to have fielded more youth and women candidates. In fact for the first time, the Islamic opposition party PAS is fielding 12 women candidates for parliamentary seats. The BN component parties allocated around 26 percent of the 222 parliament seats and 27 percent of the 505 state seats to the youth and women's wing of their respective parties. While this historically has been the norm for parliamentary seats, the nation is seeing significantly more women candidates in state assembly races. KUALA LUMP 00000140 002 OF 004 ¶4. (SBU) On nomination day, the National Front secured seven parliamentary and two state seats uncontested while PAS won a state seat in Kelantan when the UMNO candidate was disqualified for being a bankrupt. The PAS victory in Kelantan was a psychological setback for UMNO as the party has launched a major campaign to wrest the state from PAS, which has controlled the state since 1990 (ref A). Commenting on the walkover victories, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi described it as a "sign of confidence in the BN" and added that it was an indication that the coalition will be able to retain its two-thirds majority in parliament. The BN coalition gained another parliament on February 26 when one of the independent candidates in a parliament seat in Sarawak withdrew his nomination, paving the way for the sole BN candidate in that constituency to win the seat uncontested. According to Malaysian election laws, candidates are allowed to withdraw their nomination 72 hours after the nomination day. Campaigns begin with pledges of unity -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Following the completion of nominations on the morning of February 24, each of the parties' campaign machines swung into full gear. National Front coalition parties took a more reserved and methodological approach as they focused their first few days on the release of the coalition's campaign platform known locally as its "manifesto," while opposition parties immediately hit to the streets for nightly political rallies. By February 26, all major political parties had released their own campaign manifestos laying out their promises to the electorate, each focusing on common themes of unity, racial harmony, and national prosperity. ¶6. (SBU) The National Front's 21-page campaign manifesto promised "security, peace and prosperity" and, unlike the 2004 manifesto, outlined the coalition's successes since the last election. Predictably, the manifesto focused on past and future economic development for the country, education, law and order, unity and religion, foreign policy, public services, and on reducing corruption and improving governance. It called for unity among the nation's ethnic groups, and promised to soothe the grievances of the Indian and Chinese communities over religious and education rights. In launching the platform on February 25, coalition president and Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi promised: "The basis of our struggle is our commitment, which cannot be defeated by challenges. It has worked for 50 years. . .we will face the future with greater commitment." ¶7. (U) The opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) also released its manifesto entitled "Malaysia Can Do Better!" on February 25, emphasizing the need for "equality for all." Returning to its socialist roots, DAP's manifesto proposed the use of half of the profits of the national oil company, Petronas, to finance a RM 35 billion fiscal stimulus plan to enhance living standards by giving a RM 6,000 yearly allowance to the nation's poor. Party secretary general Lim Guan Eng explained: "This will kill two birds with one stone. It will help the needy families and the plan will help in economic recovery because it encourages spending in the domestic market." Focused on eight tenets, DAP's plan called for higher living standards, a Malaysia first economic policy, education, the environment, gender equality, youth empowerment, good governance, and greater democratic freedoms. ¶8. (U) The conservative Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), released its election platform with the slogan "a nation of care and opportunity" by promising lower fuel prices, a minimum wage, free university education and more affordable health care. Interestingly, the Islamic party dropped from its manifesto a pledge to create a theocratic state that has been the central theme in its previous election platforms. One academic commented that the Islamic party "has realized that by focusing on 'bread and butter issues' the party will be attractive to non-Muslims" as well as Muslims. Party President Abdul Hadi Awang told reporters that the Islamic agenda was not mentioned in the current manifesto because "it was already understood by supporters and non-Muslims and did not need to be mentioned again specifically." The party also released a supplementary election manifesto for Kelantan entitled "Development In Line With Islam - Spearheading Changes for Blessings," in which the party promised business growth schemes and tourism projects. It also reached out to women through promises to extend maternity leave to 90 days, commitments to placing women in community leadership roles of KUALA LUMP 00000140 003 OF 004 all towns and villages, and pledges to promote matchmaking services for women marrying later in life. The platform pledged that, for non-Muslims, their rights would be guaranteed without discrimination and that the party would have village heads to represent each ethnic group in a community. ¶9. (U) Not to be outdone, Anwar Ibrahim's People's Justice Party (PKR) also released a 20-page manifesto on February 26 with the slogan a "new dawn for Malaysia" and promised a constitutional state, vibrant economy, safer streets, affordable livelihood, and better education for all. Echoing many of the party's recent themes, PKR's manifesto focused on the rule of law and a clean judiciary; an end to racially discriminative policies; security through good governance; and a more consumer friendly use of the nation's oil revenues to lower prices on petrol and other essential goods. In its clearest departure from other parties, PKR pledged to end the nation's New Economic Policy and ensure social justice for all races. Petrol prices to the front -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Before the ink was even dry on all the nomination forms, opposition parties jumped to the attack and warned voters of impending price hikes in gasoline and other essential items once the National Front was re-elected. At nightly political rallies around Kuala Lumpur poloffs have observed every opposition party campaigning against the National Front's "mismanagement" of the country's resources and the government's impending reduction in gasoline subsidies (ref C). To counter the opposition's argument, the National Front published full page advertisements in local newspapers on February 25 contending that Malaysia had lower gasoline and commodity prices than its neighbors Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. Trying to fend off public concern over fuel prices, National Front Deputy President and Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak could only offer a half-hearted, "No, it doesn't necessarily mean price hike," when asked if a coalition win would result in lower fuel subsidies. 13 days allows change of tactics -------------- ¶11. (SBU) When Malaysia's Election Commission (EC) announced a 13-day campaign period (ref B),opposition parties were pleasantly surprised at the length of the campaign period, the nation's longest since 1982, and National Front leaders promised to use the time wisely to remind the nation of all the progress the country has seen under the coalition. The extended campaign period has created, however, an apparent lack of urgency among National Front candidates, but more interestingly, it has brought a change of tactics. In an almost unorthodox approach in Malaysian politics, National Front candidates have so far abandoned the use of nightly political rallies and opted instead for living room chats and door to door canvassing of their state assembly and parliamentary districts. Rather than waiting for sunset to host street rallies known locally as "ceramahs," coalition candidates regularly walk business districts and neighborhoods throughout the day, shaking more hands and talking to voters. ¶12. (SBU) Despite the coalition's change of tactics, opposition candidates are hitting the traditional, nightly ceramah circuit, and cooperation among opposition parties remains high. Most rallies that we have observed have included speakers from different opposition parties supporting each other in their quests to unseat their coalition opponents. Predictably PKR and PAS are often observed actively campaigning for each other's candidates, but PKR also has served as a bridge between DAP and PAS. Previous cooperation between DAP and PAS under the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) (see ref D),has also served in bringing the two parties closer together. Anwar Ibrahim has actively campaigned for DAP candidates at the same rally for which he is campaigning for PKR candidates. Although we have yet to observe PAS and DAP working closely at the nightly ceramahs, this appears to be more a consequence of seat allocation than intransigence. Media coverage focuses on BN -------------- ¶13. (C) Unchanged, however, is the paltry coverage the KUALA LUMP 00000140 004 OF 004 mainstream media provides to opposition party events. Most Malaysians receive their news from television. While the opposition generally does not complain about limited air-time from private companies such as the NST, TV3 or NTV7, it has become a constant refrain for opposition candidates to lament that the government television stations RTM1 and RTM2 are also used as pawns of the National Front. The two government TV stations run constant campaign commercials for the National Front during the evening news hours, and the news broadcasts are replete with criticism of opposition politics and candidates. Following the release of BN's election manifesto, every daily newspaper provided in depth coverage and top billing for the coalition's new platform. In a contrasting example of coverage, the New Straits Times (NST) printed five lead pages of stories highlighting the coalition's new platform, but relegated both DAP and PAS's party platforms, released on the same day, to two short stories on the top third of page 27. Notwithstanding the limitations the opposition parties face in the main stream media, PAS, DAP and PKR have fully incorporated online media and news portals in their campaign strategy. Foremost is PAS's Harakah Daily website which remains one of Malaysia's most sophisticated internet news sites. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) Nomination day provided no real surprises, and despite the normal squabbles over technical details of the candidates' papers, the day remained calm and entirely predictable. Most striking, however, is the National Front's slow, methodological beginning to the 13-day campaign period. One journalist asked if the country was merely facing the calm before the storm, or had voters already decided which way they would vote? Perhaps an alternate reason BN has moved so slowly out of the box is that while the opposition parties are strong on issues and ideas, they are very weak on organization and financing. Such a reality eases most serious threats to National Front candidates, and allows the coalition to depend heavily on its base and strong grassroots organization to get out the votes on election day. To counter this, the opposition parties necessarily depend on each other to attract voters who will vote for "anyone but BN," but 50 years of incumbency remains very hard to overcome. KEITH