UMNO COMPLETES NOMINATIONS FOR UPCOMING PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 001029

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UMNO COMPLETES NOMINATIONS FOR UPCOMING PARTY
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reason 1.4 (b and
d).

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (SBU) The United Malays National Organization (UMNO),the
party that dominates Malaysia's governing coalition,
concluded divisional elections on November 9 and wrapped up
nominations for the party's national leadership positions,
which will be contested in the party elections March 24-28,

2009. Party deputy president and Deputy Prime Minister Najib
Tun Razak attracted all but one nomination for the top slot,
and is virtually assured election as the next UMNO President
and thus become Malaysia's next Prime Minister. Most other
UMNO contests are not as clear cut. The UMNO Deputy
President post features a three-way fight, with Trade
Minister Muhyiddin Yassin the frontrunner, while eight
candidates vie for three UMNO Vice President positions. The
UMNO Youth Chief race, one of the most publicized contests,
pits ex-PM Mahathir's son Mukhriz against Khairy Jamaluddin,
son-in-law of outgoing PM Abdullah, and Malay populist Khir
Toyo. Long-serving Women's leader Rafidah Aziz, UMNO's "Iron
Lady," will defend her position against her deputy Shahrizat
Abdul Jalil. This year's party nomination process has been
ripe, once again, with complaints about widespread vote
buying.


2. (C) Comment: UMNO's election process is often seen as
more important than the national elections; with the ruling
National Front coalition in place, UMNO leaders will hold the
most senior positions in the government, including that of
Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and the most critical
Cabinet slots. Despite the March election shock and public
focus on needed reforms, UMNO's election process has
proceeded as it has for decades -- as a power struggle among
party elites in which money plays a significant role, and
contests are largely divorced from any policy positions or
wider public opinion. Observers will track the prospects of
factions defined by affiliation to senior figures,
particularly Najib, Abdullah and Mahathir. At the end of the
nomination process, a new UMNO does not appear on the
horizon. End Summary and Comment.

UMNO Nominations Wrap Up
--------------


3. (U) UMNO wrapped up the last of their 191 divisional
elections and nominations on November 9 for the party's top
positions, which will be contested in the party elections
March 24-28, 2009. Five divisions did not hold elections due
to administrative problems or controversies, but vowed to do
so before March. As each UMNO division has 13 voting
delegates, a total of 2,565 party members will decide the
leadership of the party. For the next four months, party
candidates who have qualified will concentrate on winning and
retaining delegates' support, as nominations obtained by the
candidates during the divisional elections do not bind
delegates and will not guarantee their votes come March.
President: Najib Set to Win Uncontested
--------------


4. (U) Reflecting the "transition plan" proposed by Prime
Minister Abdullah and blessed at various points over the past
months by UMNO leadership, party deputy president and DPM
Najib attracted almost universal support for his bid to
become the next party president and Prime Minister. Najib
obtained 184 nominations for the UMNO President post while
his only declared competitor Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah garnered
but one nomination (from Razaleigh's own division in
Kelantan). Najib was assured he would win the presidency
uncontested when on November 2 he picked up his 134th
nomination, making it mathematically impossible for any other
candidate to qualify. Barring any unforeseen political
catastrophe, UMNO will officially name Najib as UMNO
President in March 2009. By convention since the country's
independence in 1957, the UMNO President becomes Malaysia's
Prime Minister, and Najib is expected to assume that position
after UMNO's late March assembly and following confirmation
by the King, as required by the Constitution.

Deputy President: A Major Contest in the Making
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5. (SBU) The UMNO Deputy President post has not featured a
real contest since 1987, but will now see a three-cornered
fight pitting UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin Yassin (who is
also the Minister for International Trade and Industry)
against another UMNO Vice President Mohd Ali Rustam (Melaka
Chief Minister) and UMNO Information Chief Muhammad Muhammad
Taib (Rural and Regional Development Minister). By
convention, the Deputy President of UMNO will be the Deputy
Prime Minister of the country. Muhyiddin, a trained
economist, is clearly the front runner, although the other
two leaders are popular among UMNO rank-in-file. DPM Najib
has not officially endorsed any of the three candidates but
is commonly viewed as supporting Muhyiddin, as the latter was
an active proponent in pushing for PM Abdullah's rapid
transition to Najib. That said, Muhyiddin may face some
problems from PM Abdullah's supporters who blame the UMNO
Vice President for hastening the departure of their leader.

Vice President: The (Relatively) Young and Restless
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6. (U) For the three UMNO Vice President posts, eight
leaders have obtained the minimum nominations (20) to contest
the post. Leading the pack is UMNO Youth Chief and Education
Minister Hishamuddin Tun Hussein, who is also DPM Najib's
cousin. Hishamuddin obtained 151 nominations followed by
DPM's Najib's former political secretary Zahid Hamidi (who is
the Minister in Prime Minister's Department in charge of
religious affairs). The other relatively young leaders who
are vying for the Vice President post are Shafie Apdal
(Minister of Arts, Culture and Heritage, from Sabah) and
Minister of Higher Education Khalid Nordin. Veteran UMNO
leaders who reached the threshold to contest include Home
Minister Syed Hamid Albar, incumbent Vice President Isa Samad
(who was suspended from his position in June 2005 for three
years for being involved in money politics) and DPM Najib's
close associate Jamaluddin Jarjis. Foreign Minister Rais
Yatim also made the cut, but only by virtue of a few
last-minute nominations.

Youth Chief: Mahathir-Abdullah Proxy War
--------------


7. (SBU) The race for the influential position of UMNO Youth
Chief has become one of UMNO's most publicized contests.
Leading the nomination race is former PM Mahathir's son
Mukhriz Mahathir, who obtained 74 nominations, followed by
populist former Selangor Chief Minister Khir Toyo, who
obtained 62. The third contestant is PM Abdullah's
son-in-law and MP Khairy Jamaluddin, who managed to get 52
nominations. For Khairy, the incumbent UMNO Youth Deputy
Chief, the number nominations he received is considered to be
a major embarrassment as he was considered the clear favorite
prior to UMNO's March election setback. Khairy attracted a
great deal of blame within UMNO for the poor showing at the
polls. Khairy's fortunes soured further when father-in-law
Abdullah announced in early October that he will step down in
March 2009 as UMNO President. The contest between Mukhriz
and Khairy is widely seen as a proxy war between Mahathir and
Abdullah, with grassroots sentiment favoring Mukhriz and
money politics favoring Khairy. Khir Toyo has relied on
Malay chauvinist themes, and reportedly ample funding, to
attract support for his bid.

Women's Wing: An End to the Iron Lady?
--------------


8. (U) Despite an initial transition agreement calling for
long-serving Women's Chief Rafidah Aziz ("the Iron Lady") to
hand over power to Deputy Chief Shahrizat Abdul Jalil in June
2009, a battle has developed between the two for leadership
of the Women's wing. Rafidah and Shahrizat both received
sufficient nominations to contest for the top Women's
position. Shahrizat urged Rafidah, who has led the Women's
wing for 20 out of the past 24 years, to follow PM Abdullah's
footsteps and step down in March 2009 instead of June 2009.
On November 20, Shahrizat finally confirmed her intention to
seek the Women's Chief post in the name of "renewal," a
decision that met with signs of grassroots support.
Shahrizat also qualified to run for the deputy position along
with another veteran leader, Kamilia Ibrahim. Surprisingly,
former UMNO Young Women's (Puteri) Chief and Minister of
Tourism Azalina Othman did not receive the minimum 29
nominations to contest the deputy post. With Shahrizat going

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for the top position, Kamilia appears set to win the deputy
slot uncontested.

UMNO Supreme Council: Candidates Galore
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9. (U) For the 25 elected seats in the UMNO Supreme Council,
73 candidates (out of 142) made the cut by obtaining the
minimum 10 nominations. The race will feature every
incumbent on the Supreme Council, UMNO cabinet ministers,
deputy ministers, chief ministers, several state legislative
members and prominent businessmen.

Money Politics
--------------


10. (SBU) This year's party nomination process is, once
again, ripe with complaints about vote buying, with the UMNO
disciplinary board receiving more than 900 complaints during
the divisional election period. Seemingly every candidate
vying for a position in the party election has complained
that UMNO divisional "agents, brokers, and lobbyists" are
openly asking for money in return for the division's support.
According to a veteran observer, the general code phrase
used by these brokers is "you have Agong (King)," referring
to the King who is featured on all Malaysian currency.
Foreign Minister Rais Yatim, who barely scraped through the
nomination process, sarcastically suggested that UMNO should
give positions "to the highest bidder." Tengku Razaleigh's
supporters stated that UMNO divisional party agents, when
approached for their backing, have replied "no money, no
talk." Razaleigh, who described money politics as a "cancer
that will destroy the party," suggested that UMNO should
adopt the U.S. campaign funding system to curb vote buying
within the party. UMNO Disciplinary Board Chairman Tengku
Rithaudeen acknowledged that money politics "is fast becoming
a culture" in the party, and welcomed Razaleigh's suggestion,
adding that the Board would study the system and "tailor it
to the local political scene if it can benefit UMNO." Party
officials have also called on the Anti-Corruption Agency
(ACA) to tackle the problem, though the widespread nature of
vote-buying and executive control over ACA make this a hollow
gesture, many observers conclude.
KEITH