CPM LOSES GROUND IN LOCAL ELECTIONS DUE TO THEIR VIOLENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000160

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAGR EIND IN
SUBJECT: CPM LOSES GROUND IN LOCAL ELECTIONS DUE TO THEIR VIOLENT
WAYS

REF: KOLKATA 148


1. (SBU) Summary: West Bengal's ruling Communist Party of
India - Marxist (CPM) led Left Front suffered a serious setback
in the local level "Panchayat" elections in the state. The
CPM's control was diminished at all three levels of the
Panchayat structure. While land acquisition for industry
remained a cause for its poor showing, the CPM's use of violence
and thuggish tactics alienated many of their past supporters
including their traditional Muslim base and was the more
significant cause of their defeat. The CPM's losses also
indicate fissures among the Left Front. In the coming weeks,
the opposition Trinamul Congress (TMC) will have to flesh out an
alternative platform if it wants to capitalize on its surprising
success. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Panchayat system is divided into three broad
categories: the District Level (Zilla Parishad),the Block Level
(Panchayat Samiti),and the Village Level (Gram Panchayat). In
West Bengal, there were 17 Zilla Parishads, 329 Panchayat
Samities, and 3,220 Gram Panchayats (over 41,000 seats) at stake
in this year's election. The TMC, unable to win even one
district council five years ago, made inroads into the CPM's
political base and for the first time won two district councils
-- East Midnapore and South 24-Parganas -- leaving the Left
Front/CPM in control of 13 out of 17 districts. The Left Front
and CPM's share of the block level Panchayat Samitis was down
nearly 30 percent. At the Gram Panchayat level, the CPM and
Left Front losses there appear to be close to 50 percent. The
Statesman newspaper supplied the following 2008 results (numbers
in parentheses show 2003 figures for comparison).

Districts Blocks Villages

Left 13(15) 187(285) 1585(2303)

Opposition 4 89 1498(897)

Tie/Hung 137(20)



3. (SBU) TMC supporters were as equally surprised at their
victories as the Left Front. The TMC, led by the firebrand
politician Mamata Banerjee, had led the protests in 2007 against
the GOWB's abortive bid to acquire land for setting up a
chemical hub in East Midnapore's Nandigram. The TMC made a
clean sweep of the seats in the area. East Midnapore and South
24-Parganas are also heavily dominated by Muslim voters who
usually vote for the CPM. The TMC victory in these districts
indicates Muslims also switched their alliance in favor of the
TMC. In addition, the TMC won in Singur, where it had mobilized
people against land acquisition for Tata Motors' small car
factory earlier, though it failed to stretch its victory to the
rest of the district which was won by the Left Front.


4. (SBU) The Muslim community vote may have been affected by
fears of losing land, but distaste for the CPM's
heavy-handedness is a more likely cause for its support of the
TMC. The CPM's use of force and violence, in Nandigram in
particular, did not sit well with locals. In Singur, there had
been continued dissatisfaction about the compensation and
rehabilitation package offered by the GOWB. Although TMC
leaders at first claimed they would shutdown the Tata project in
Singur, they are already backing away from such rhetoric,
indicating that the industrialization drive in West Bengal may
still have legs.


5. (SBU) The CPM's poor showing may also be an initial indicator
of small cracks within the Left Front coalition. Some of the
small Left Front parties had been chafing under the CPM's
domination of the coalition, particularly at the local level.
Working President of the West Bengal State Congress Committee
Pradip Bhattacharya told ConGen that prior to the local body
elections, the Congress Party had approached some of the CPM's
smaller Left Front partners, the Revolutionary Socialist Party
(RSP) and Forward Bloc (FB),but was unable to convince them to
leave the Left Front. The media reported that the Left Front
was divided over Nandigram and Singur, and during the election
several clashes between the workers of CPM and the RSP took
place leading to several deaths (reftel). Bhattacharaya felt
that the at the grassroots level Left party workers and the
Opposition sometimes joined hands on common issues, but that

KOLKATA 00000160 002 OF 002


there was discord among the higher level leaders of the parties
that prevented new coalitions from forming permanently.


6. (U) For its part, the CPM blamed its defeat on the publicity
campaign launched by opposition parties. CPM Party spokesman
Shyamal Chakraborty admitted to the media that the CPM had
failed to convince the people about the need for
industrialization and its government's good intentions, but that
the party was unable to reach out to the masses with its
industrialization message before the opposition succeeded in
"deceiving" voters. Since the election Chakraborty, with the
backing or party hardliners, has been elevated to the CPM's
State Secretariat.


7. (SBU) Comment: The CPM's violent tactics, particularly in
Nandigram and Singur, played a significant role in their losses
in these elections. Tellingly, their aggressiveness included
battles with their Left Front partners (four RSP workers were
killed during clashes with CPM cadres during the voting). As
well, there was growing public dissatisfaction over the public
distribution system and corruption at the local level. As a
result, the TMC found itself unexpectedly victorious, and is now
faced with the task of showing that it offers an alternative to
the CPM. Chief Minister Bhattacharjee will also have to face
criticism from some WB leaders and the hardliners in the CPM's
Central Committee, who may now try to tie his hands, and his
industrialization plans, even more. The CPM is likely to
tighten up its ranks and retreat to its traditional ideological
posture, at the cost of slowing down the industrialization drive
in West Bengal. The TMC unfortunately does not appear to have
an alternative, viable platform in place that could take real
advantage of this sudden chink in the CPM's armor.


8. (SBU) Comment continued: As indicated by the postponement
of this week's talks between the UPA and the Left on the civil
nuclear deal, the CPM's losses in W. Bengal combined with
Congress' recent drubbing in Karnataka will put the brakes on
resolving pressing national issues, as both parties take stock
of the election results. It will take time before it becomes
clear whether the CPM's losses in the local elections were
simply a response to its heavy-handedness in Nandigram and
Singur or whether the poor CPM showing has deeper roots and
signals the beginning of a more profound shift in West Bengal
electorate's view of and receptivity to the CPM.
JARDINE