GOMA NOTES 06/08/08: CONGOLESE DDR CHIEF BRIEFS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000535 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO CG UN SUBJECT: GOMA NOTES 06/08/08: CONGOLESE DDR CHIEF BRIEFS INTERNATIONAL FACILITATION ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Congolese DDR chief Alphonse Ntumba Luaba briefed International Facilitation representatives June 7 and 8 on the ability of the GDRC's program to address Goma and Nairobi process DDR requirements. The program is budgeted at $75 million; Ntumba anticipates that the World Bank and African Development Bank will begin allocating funds in the near future. Mobile DDR teams should be ready to deploy around July 4 and begin processing around July 7. Under an alternate proposal, the Facilitation will approach donors about funding fixed transit centers. Ntumba expects an estimated 172,000 persons to participate in either brassage or DDR. Near-term challenges include: initial funding of $4 million will only cover approximately 4,000 ex-combatants; and 1,000 people, principally Mai-Mai, have spontaneously congregated at MONUC bases in the Grand Nord region of North Kivu claiming they are ready to disarm. End summary ¶2. (SBU) Alphonse Ntumba Luaba, head of the Congolese national DDR program (PNDDR),briefed representatives of the International Facilitation in Goma June 7 and 8 on the program's readiness to address Goma and Nairobi process DDR and brassage issues. Finance -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ntumba reported that the Congolese program will cost $75 million. Most of the funding will be provided by two multilateral development banks: $50 million in international development assistance (IDA) funds from the World Bank MDRP program, and $22.5 million from the African Development Bank (ADB) for reintegration programs. The Congolese government will provide $2.5 million in counterpart funds. According to current projections, the MDRP plans to release a first tranche of $4 million in Project Preparation Facility funds during the last two weeks of June. ¶4. (SBU) Ntumba noted that MDRP will not cover Congolese combatants on foreign soil (the World Bank has another fund for this caseload), FDLR combatants or transit and orientation centers (mobile DDR teams are envisioned instead). Facilitation representatives agreed to approach donors in Kinshasa to determine interest in financing construction of transit and orientation centers. Mobile DDR teams will be ready to deploy around July 4, with processing envisioned to begin around July 7. However, Ntumba stressed that the Amani program's Joint Commission on Peace and Security (CTMPS) will make the final decision on when the DDR and brassage processes would begin. Numbers -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Ntumba estimated that a total of 172,000 combatants will participate in either brassage or DDR through the program. He expects 132,000 will pass through a full cycle: 56,000 in DDR, 79,000 in brassage for integration into the FARDC. Of these, he anticipates 80,000 will come from the FARDC, 35,000 from Kivu armed groups, 2,000 from the FDLR (Congolese members),9,000 Congolese combatants in foreign territory and 6,000 northern Katanga Mai-Mai fighters. (Note: Consensus in Goma is that armed groups in fact total some 20-25,000 fighters. End note.) The other 40,000 have already disarmed and demobilized, but yet to go through reintegration. Operations -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In terms of how the program would operate, Ntumba explained that combatants would first present themselves at MONUC or FARDC bases where they would be disarmed and given a disarmament certificate. Mobile teams would then deploy to areas with concentrations of disarmed combatants to process them for participation in the program. Ex-combatants choosing DDR will be given $140 and told to return home to await additional processing by the mobile teams. They will also receive stipends of $25 per month for 12 months as well as an individual reintegration package, the same as other ex-combatants have received in previous programs. Those choosing army integration will be transported by the FARDC to brassage centers. ¶6. (SBU) Facilitation representatives presented various views of the proposal during the two meetings. MONUC Eastern Division Commander General Bikram Singh advocated for fixed transit centers at the June 7 meeting. He said that if combatants surrender their arms and are told to go home to wait for the mobile teams, they will refuse, citing security concerns. It is more likely they will demand to stay at MONUC bases. This would create a demand for food and shelter that MONUC can not accommodate. KINSHASA 00000535 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Singh noted that MONUC wants to encourage immediate and ongoing desertion from the armed groups, but this will not happen if their food, shelter, and security needs can not be immediately addressed. On the other hand, as SRSG Chief of Staff John Almstrom and World Bank MDRP representative Harald Hinkel noted the expense of reorientation and transit centers and predicted that ex-combatants would often simply remain for lengthy periods there of time, creating additional food, shelter, and security issues. ¶8. (SBU) Ntumba noted that the "one man, one gun" principle will be an eligibility requirement for the program; in fact, it is required under the government's DDR agreement with the World Bank. Under this principle, only someone who surrenders a firearm in working order, a land mine, a grenade, a radio or a certain amount of ammunition is eligible for the program. Presentation of a heavy weapon, ("collective" weapons, in the jargon of the program) can make 3-10 fighters eligible. Those who do arrive for processing without any such weapons will be by definition presumed to be non-combatants. Challenges -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Discussion at the June 8 meeting also focused on the problem of 1,000 people, principally from Mai-Mai groups, who have congregated at MONUC bases in North Kivu's Grand Nord region claiming they are ready to disarm and enter brassage or DDR. Facilitation representatives agreed on the need to come up with an emergency financial and operational plan to address this. Ntumba said the mobile teams could be ready to deploy for this purpose when needed. ¶10. (SBU) Discussion also highlighted a number of other issues and problems: -- MDRP's initial $4 million disbursement will cover only some 4,000 ex-combatants. -- The defense ministry has informally agreed to eligibility of Congolese FDLR for the program. Taking the decision public will probably require a more formal determination. MONUC's DDRRR office strongly supports this proposal as a potentially powerful magnet to draw them away from the larger group. -- Facilitation representatives suggested asking Nkunda to send his fighters directly to a DDR or brassage center. CNDP fighters would not then have to be processed by a mobile team or in an orientation center. -- A/S Frazer's Senior Adviser Tim Shortley highlighted the importance of calculating a realistic timeline for completion of brassage that can be presented to Nkunda. This would recognize that each of the six brassage centers can accommodate only 3,500 people, which can include no more than 30 per cent from any one group. In addition, it must account for the approximately three-month brassage process and potentially lengthy transport time to and from the centers. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Comment: Mobile teams have been used successfully in past DDR programs in the DRC. In the absence of fixed orientation and transit centers, they could be used in the Amani program for all groups except perhaps CNDP, PARECO, FRF and the Yakatumba Mai-Mai. The idea of "one-man, one-gun" has been applied in the DRC only in the case of Ituri DDR Phase 3. If enforced rigorously, it could exclude many -- perhaps 80 per cent -- of claimed Mai-Mai members. End comment. GARVELINK