MLC LEADERSHIP ON BEMBA AND MORE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000529 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EFIN ECON CG RW SUBJECT: MLC LEADERSHIP ON BEMBA AND MORE ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a long discussion June 3, leaders of Bemba's MLC ("Mouvement pour la Liberation du Congo") party told POLOFF they are not planning further public demonstrations in Kinshasa following a canceled May 31 march in the capital. The strongest displays of support for Bemba have occurred in his native Equateur province. The MLC is planning a Kinshasa petition drive and local television campaign to raise awareness regarding the circumstances of Bemba's arrest and demonstrate popular support for him. The MLC position on legislation governing the opposition spokesman is rejected by other opposition parties. The uncertain tenure of Prime Minister Gizenga is a top MLC concern, as is the rate of 2008 budget expenditure. According to MLC leadership, the mistrust between Kabila and Nkunda is symbolic of mistrust of Kabila across the DRC political landscape. End summary. Reaction to Bemba arrest -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Leaders of Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC party discussed with Poloff reaction to Bemba's May 24 arrest, as well as party position on legislation governing the opposition, current economic and political issues, and eastern Congo peace processes, three days after its leadership canceled a May 31 march in support of Bemba in Kinshasa. ¶3. (SBU) Executive Secretary Thomas Luhaka and National Secretary Jean-Lucien Bussa, both National Assembly deputies, said June 3 at MLC headquarters the party is emphasizing that any public displays of support for Bemba that it organizes must be responsible and orderly. They said the party canceled a planned May 31 demonstration after Kinshasa provincial authorities offered insufficient security guarantees for participants. Luhaka said the party has no immediate plans for subsequent demonstrations. ¶4. (SBU) Although organized public displays of support for Bemba have been limited in Kinshasa, there has been greater protest activity in Bemba's home province of Equateur. A MONUC-Mbandaka political affairs officer told us June 4 Bemba supporters had thrown rocks at MONUC vehicles in Mbandaka and at a Belgian-owned property in Gemena May 26. Governor Jose Makila, Congo's only MLC governor, suspended public demonstrations following the incidents, but lifted the ban June 2 after meeting with MLC provincial deputies. ¶5. (SBU) The MLC planned to launch a petition drive in Kinshasa protesting Bemba's arrest and calling for his release by Belgian authorities. It estimates it will obtain one million signatures. It is also considering a television campaign to publicize their suspicions regarding the arrest. Luhaka expressed suspicion about the timing and role of Belgian intelligence services in the arrest. ¶6. (SBU) The priority of party leadership is to demonstrate unified support for Bemba. It will follow party rules in the event Bemba can no longer serve. Secretary General Francois Mwamba, who heads the MLC caucus in the National Assembly, will act as MLC president for an unspecified time. Luhaka emphasized that MLC leadership will protect the integrity of the party and discourage outbreaks of violence. (Note: Independent Senator Francois Kaniki, a former MLC member, told us June 4 that party loyalists consider Bemba their only leader and will not accept plans to replace him in the short or medium term. End note.) Divergent views on opposition Spokesman -------------- ¶7. (SBU) MLC leaders articulated the primary differences among opposition parties on legislation currently before the National Assembly on the status of its official Spokesman. The MLC rejects rotation of the position among opposition parties. It maintains Bemba received the second-highest number of votes in the presidential election and should be the sole official voice of the opposition throughout his term of office. Political and economic concerns -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Luhaka claimed current uncertainty over the tenure of Prime Minister Gizenga impedes the political process. He also charged there was a wave of arrests of FARDC officers from Equateur in the days following the Bemba arrest. He stated that 60-80 per cent of police commanders are Swahili speakers loyal to Kabila and thus incapable of impartially enforcing the law. ¶9. (SBU) The MLC is concerned that the 2008 budget is rapidly being spent while food prices escalate. Luhaka claimed 70 per cent of the budget had been consumed as of June, blaming corruption and a KINSHASA 00000529 002 OF 002 dysfunctional tax system. (Note: This may refer to 70 per cent of the GDRC-funded portion of the budget, i.e. $2.4 billion out of a total of $3.4 billion. This amount is not to exceed half of the total projected budget for the year. According to the IMF, GDRC spending has not exceeded revenues, at least on a monthly basis, since slight deficits recorded in January and February 2008. End note.) Nkunda, Bemba, and FDLR -------------- ¶10. (SBU) CNDP president Laurent Nkunda sent a letter May 25 to the presidents of the National Assembly and Senate requesting their intervention to assist in the release of Bemba and in repairing Belgian-Congolese relations. (Note: Nkunda's letter was forwarded to AF/C. End note.) Luhaka made no reference to the letter, but criticized Nkunda's continued presence in North Kivu and charged that the CNDP is levying its own taxes on the population. He characterized the level of personal mistrust between Kabila and Nkunda as emblematic of a general mistrust of Kabila by many Congolese politicians. Luhaka, linking Nkunda's presence with foreign armed group activity, said there are three options for the FDLR in eastern DRC: return to Rwanda, by force if necessary; disarm and settle in a third country; or disarm and remain in the DRC as refugees. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Comment: Bemba's arrest has forced the MLC into a confrontation between those party members who would benefit from Bemba's removal from the political scene and others who, owing their election to him, believe he may return to power and thus will push for public displays of support. It is not yet clear whether lack of spontaneous demonstrations in Kinshasa indicates successful intimidation by pro-Kabila forces, a lack of popular support for Bemba, or well-organized party discipline. Kabila can only be enjoying his opponents' disarray. End comment. GARVELINK