NAIROBI PROCESS - MOVING FORWARD AFTER KISANGANI

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000488 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO CG RW SUBJECT: NAIROBI PROCESS - MOVING FORWARD AFTER KISANGANI REF: KINSHASA 463 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: May 27-28 technical committee meetings following the Kisangani FDLR Conference reached agreement on the process through which the FDLR-RUD and RPR will disarm and begin repatriation to Rwanda or resettlement in the DRC. MONUC is guardedly optimistic regarding prospects for successful demobilization, based in large part on the level of commitment demonstrated by the GDRC. FDLR/FOC representatives were not in Kisangani, although individuals claiming to represent that group were present. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Congolese government and FDLR factions RUD (Ralliement pour l'Unite et la Democratie) and RPR (Rassemblement du Peuple Rwandais) agreed May 28 on modalities for disarmament and processing of FDLR-RUD and RPR combatants and dependents prior to repatriation to Rwanda or relocation in the DRC. The May 27-28 meeting followed the May 26 conference of FDLR factions sponsored by the Congolese government that produced a "Roadmap for the disarmament of the Rwandan armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo" (reftel). ¶3. (SBU) Congolese government representatives and political and military leadership of FDLR-RUD and RPR worked with a technical committee including MONUC, the EU, South Africa, the ECC (the religious denomination "Eglise du Christ au Congo"),UNOCHA, World Bank MDRP, and UNHCR to produce the agreement. It establishes two assembly points for combatants and dependents located near areas where FDLR-RUD and RPR are active. It calls for the GDRC to identity possible relocation areas within the DRC by June 2 and the reporting of RUD and RPR combatants to the assembly points by June ¶4. ¶4. (SBU) MONUC DDRRR Political Advisor Guillaume Lacaille, who participated in the meetings, assessed the overall prospects for compliance as strong. He told us June 2 that GDRC identification of relocation sites is essential to maintain FDLR confidence in the roadmap. He was less confident that the June 2 and June 4 timelines would be met. He predicted the first combatant arrivals at the assembly points would not occur until June 11, and that combatants would remain in transit camps for at least two months. He said that MONUC has funds to support the transit camps for two weeks, after which contributions will be solicited from donors. ¶5. (SBU) Lacaille said he doubted the GDRC would produce information on relocation sites within Congo in the immediate future. He cautioned that FDLR-RUD and RPR leadership could lose faith in the agreement if the GDRC delayed excessively. RUD military commander Musare reportedly remains on the fence. Lacaille noted the two-month stay in the transit camps presented MONUC an opportunity to work to separate the leadership from the rank and file and present repatriation options to combatants and dependents. ¶6. (SBU) Lacaille confirmed that 10 Congolese showed up at the Kisangani meeting claiming to represent the hardline FDLR/FOCA faction. He said they were quickly identified as imposters based on their lack of Kinyarwanda language skills and nervous behavior. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The production of a timetable and action plan in the wake of the Kisangani conference is a positive step, but progress will also depend on the availability of financial resources to process and relocate or repatriate combatants and their dependent. Successes in demobilizing RUD combatants would demonstrate progress in the Nairobi process and isolate FDLR hardliners, adding impetus to the Goma process as well. End Comment. BROCK