RESURGENT SOUTH KIVU ARMED GROUPS: MORIBUND FORCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000472 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MOPS CG SUBJECT: RESURGENT SOUTH KIVU ARMED GROUPS: MORIBUND FORCES RESURRECTED BY THE GOMA CONFERENCE? ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Zubaida Rasul, MONUC Head of Office in Bukavu, detailed for us that most of the signatories to the South Kivu Acte d'Engagement were actually defunct or non-existent prior to the Goma Peace Conference. The conference in turn has provided them with legitimacy and finances in the form of per diem payments, which they are using to procure arms, recruit fighters, and re-activate old Mai-Mai networks. Their principal goal is to secure their economic livelihoods, whether through attempting to gain access to the illicit minerals trade in the area or simple banditry. As a result, there has been a spike in criminal activity in the past few months, as well as several criminal incidents directed against NGOs in late March and early April. Rasul emphasized that because of the succor the Goma Conference has provided to armed groups in the form of legitimacy and per diem, South Kivu today is far more dangerous than it was before Goma. We do not endorse -- or reject -- Ms. Rasul's view that there is a causal relationship between Goma and a resurgence of defunct militias in South Kivu. Regardless, this phenomenon merits close scrutiny. End summary ¶2. (SBU) Zubaida Rasul, MONUC Head of Office in Bukavu, participated in a conference call with us on May 22 during which she provided details and analysis regarding the signatories to the South Kivu Acte d'Engagement. Rasul emphasized that with the exception of the Mai-Mai groups Yakutumba and Zabuloni and the Banyamulenge (Congolese Tutsi) group Forces Republicaines Federalistes (FRF),all the signatories were defunct or non-existent prior to the Goma Peace Conference. ¶3. (SBU) Groups that were created or resuscitated by the conference are: -- Kapopo Mai-Mai -- Kirikicho Mai-Mai -- Mahoro Mai-Mai -- Ny,kiriba Mai-Mai -- Shabunda Mai-Mai -- Shikito Mai-Mai -- Simba Mai-Mai -- Mudundo 40 -- PARECO/South Kivu -- Raia Mutomboki ¶4. (SBU) Rasul underlined that she and other MONUC officers attempted in advance to verify the existence of the invitees to the conference, but that local security and civil society actors had never heard of most of the groups in question. It was unclear to her why they were invited, or who decided to invite them, in the first place. They are, she said, essentially creations of the Goma Conference, which provided them both legitimacy and finances in the form of per diem payments, which they are using to procure arms, recruit fighters and re-activate old Mai-Mai networks. ¶5. (SBU) With the exception of the FRF, none of these groups has an ideological or political agenda, but are essentially economic opportunists, she said. Their goal is to secure their economic livelihoods, whether through attempting to gain access to the illicit minerals trade in the area or simple banditry. Rasul emphasized that because of the succor the Goma Conference has provided to armed groups in the form of legitimacy and per diem, South Kivu today is far more dangerous than it was before Goma. ¶6. (SBU) There has been a spike in criminal activity in the past few months, as well as several criminal incidents directed against NGOs in late March and early April. Rasul pointed to the increased activity and presence of armed groups since the Goma Conference as the reason for this spike. The challenge, she said, is to find a way to provide economic security for these groups ) that will be their condition for disarmament and demobilization. ¶7. (SBU) Rasul also provided us some details on the process of recruitment for these groups. The starting point for many of these groups was to take the name of an old Mai-Mai leader for prestige purposes and then reactivate old networks. There are plenty of demobilized elements in South Kivu without economic prospects who are easy to recruit ) their loyalty is for sale. She said it is also likely that many fighters work for several different groups. KINSHASA 00000472 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) As for specific groups, Rasul noted that the Yakutumba group is splitting into smaller pieces in the absence of any control or discipline exerted by General Yakutumba, who has been resident in Kinshasa since before the Goma Conference. The group's fighters, she said, are increasingly out of control, amid allegations of murder, rape and robbery. The FRF, by contrast, is united around Gasore Zebede. They are willing to negotiate their demobilization in return for safety and immunity guarantees. ¶9. (SBU) PARECO elements are also active in South Kivu under the name PARECO/South Kivu, which is connected to an influx of Hutu IDPs from North Kivu alongside armed elements. There are strong connections in South Kivu between PARECO and the FDLR. Another recent and confusing phenomenon according to Rasul is CNDP elements deploying under a PARECO banner ) Rasul said that PARECO spokespersons will call after an incident attributed to this group to offer a denial and claim that this CNDP group was actually the one responsible. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: Rasul's perspective regarding the non-existence of most of these armed groups prior to the Goma Conference is shared by some MONUC officers in Kinshasa as well. Although their theory cannot be proven, increased activity following the Goma Conference could point to a new problem facing the GDRC and the international community in the Kivus. End comment GARVELINK