GOMA NOTES 03/13/08 - TOUR D'HORIZON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000255 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO CG UN SUBJECT: GOMA NOTES 03/13/08 - TOUR D'HORIZON ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The international Facilitation for the Goma process faces a temporary leadership gap with the absence of two key members. MONUC has yet to identify a permanent solution for heading its participation in the process. MONUC's initial review of progress on its stabilization plan cited IDP returns and DDR as chief deficiencies. Cease-fire discussions have settled on three proposed "exclusion" zones, but the North Kivu Brigade is cool to the idea before the Joint Commission (JC) is in place. MONUC and other Facilitators welcomed the idea of demilitarized "confidence" zones discussed by Malumalu and Nkunda. The UN may be trying to pass responsibility to other internationals for follow-up investigation of the Kalonge massacre. Facilitators agreed on the importance of a JC communications strategy. They saw no possibility of any "D-Day" actions by the FARDC against the FDLR on March 15. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) SRSG chief of staff John Almstrom met other international facilitators March 13 in Goma to debrief them on his consultations in Kinshasa and to consult prior to forthcoming leave. Head of Office Alpha Sow and Menada Wind-Andersen of MONUC's Goma office, Nicholas Jenks and Willet Weeks for the U.S. and Jean-Michel Dumont and EUSEC liaison officers for the EU participated in the discussions. Eastern DRC MONUC coverage -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Almstrom, who has been coordinating MONUC's activities in the Goma process on extended TDY, will be on leave March 13-April 8. Sow will cover for him in Goma; it is not clear if he will also do so in relation to South Kivu. Acting Political Director Christian Manahl may travel from Kinshasa, but "only once and only for a week." MONUC's co-chair functions will be assumed by Sow or by members of the enhanced Facilitation. (Note: With Dumont on leave March 19-April 3 it too will also be stretched. End note.) Eastern DRC MONUC senior management -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Almstrom was assigned to Goma on TDY and will eventually have to return to Kinshasa. MONUC has been recruiting for a DSRSG, but Almstrom said that this post will be for a Rule of Law specialist and will be based in Kinshasa, not Goma. There is talk of recruitment at the UN "D2" level for someone to come to Goma, but it is unclear how far this has progressed or whether there really will be a budget for this at a time of UN austerity. MONUC strategic planning and monitoring -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Doss has initiated a system of "report cards" covering key topics in relation to the MONUC Stablization Support Package (MONUC is not using the word "plan" in deference to GDRC sensitivities). The first review was carried out last week. The biggest gaps are in planning for IDP return and in preparing for DDR, which probably cannot realistically get started until late June at the earliest. Following is their first self-report card, by component: -- FARDC improves: some progress, MONUC training. -- Armed groups disbanded: some progress. -- DDR/DDRRR: major problem -- Cease-fires monitored: progress -- Spoilers countered: some progress -- Political leadership: some progress -- Diplomatic relations: little progress -- Police: steps forward (there appeared to be a plan for PNC deployment in Kivus). Doss will deploy a senior police advisor to Goma. Also, EUPOL will extend outside of Kinshasa. -- Justice extension: little progress, but plan agreed on by GDRC. -- State reps deployed: no progress -- Border police: some progress; Japanese funding will cover some of this. -- Refugee returns: no progress; needs executive-level attention. -- IDP returns: needs executive-level attention -- DDR: needs executive-level attention -- Community tensions reduced: no progress; progress unlikely until Joint Commission (JC) set up and progress made on disengagement. -- Incomes and employment increase: some progress; certain road and bridges to be repaired with Dutch funding. Proposed exclusion zones -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The cease-fire violations meeting (held on an ad-hoc basis KINSHASA 00000255 002 OF 002 pending JC start-up) is in favor of creating three exclusion zones: Morhito, Tongo and Ngungu, all areas that the parties claim to have evacuated,. North Kivu Brigade commander General Indrajeet Narayan is cool to the idea, preferring to wait for the JC framework to be put in place. Almstrom and the international Facilitation have urged him to move forward, as no one wants the void left by CNDP to be filled by others. MONUC and the Facilitation will make visits to Morhito on Saturday March 15, to Tongo on Monday March 17, and to Ngungu on Tuesday March 18. (For technical reasons, these are to be called "exclusion," not "buffer," zones. Idea is the same: no armed personnel save MONUC allowed within them, at least 1 km distance enforced between any armed groups.) "Confidence zone" -------------- ¶7. (SBU) MONUC and Facilitation agree that the idea discussed by National Coordinator Abbe Malumalu and Nkunda of setting up a demilitarized "confidence zone" should proceed ASAP. Likely location is Kimoka, on the periphery of Sake, where an area could be cleared of armed personnel, be protected by MONUC, and where tents could be set up and JC-related meetings take place. Kalonge human rights investigation -------------- ¶8. (SBU) MONUC's Eastern Division command is unenthusiastic about remaining on the ground pending the follow-up investigation, but is being instructed to stay put. Formulas for the investigation are under discussion, but there does not seem to be anything definite yet. From the tone of the discussion it appears that MONUC and the UN may be trying to pass this hot potato onto the Facilitation. Preparation for JC start-up -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The group hoped Malumalu will be able to get the new decree issued in next few days and that the Commission can convene early next week. Discussion of internal rules of procedure (Malumalu's experts are preparing a draft) could take a week or more. Almstrom has ordered MONUC to come up with preliminary draft plans for both disengagement and DDR, so that they will have something to start with. Communications strategy -------------- ¶10. (SBU) It will be important, MONUC and Facilitation agreed, for the JC to have a strong public information outreach. The U.S. reminded the group that Malumalu has the team he put together for the Goma conference still in place and ready to move, and that he doubtless has a strategy already. Nairobi process -------------- ¶11. (SBU) All agreed that there will be no March 15 "D-Day"-type actions against the FDLR, but MONUC intends at some point thereafter to conduct some kind of joint operation that "sends a message." Any meeting with the FDLR in Kisangani will be deferred until after consultations in Rome being organized by Sant'Egidio. The meeting of Tripartite Plus chiefs of defense that was to have taken place in Kisangani this week was moved to Uganda, as other delegations wanted to avoid chance encounters with FDLR. GARVELINK