EASTERN DRC NOTES - DECEMBER 19

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001136 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - DECEMBER 19 ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. North Kivu Security Situation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MONUC and other sources report that the CNDP has been reinforcing its positions around Masisi for several weeks and that these actions have lately been accompanied by troop movements to the northwest and north. MONUC reported on December 18 that a recent CNDP advance in the direction of Pinga was allegedly repulsed by PARECO. Additionally, MONUC briefers told the International Facilitation team on December 18 that reliable sources report a "massive" CNDP build-up in Kitchanga, to the north-east of Masisi. ¶3. (SBU) A senior MONUC military source in Goma speculated to poloff that the CNDP may stage a military strike in the near future as a way to keep pressure on the negotiations in Nairobi. He noted that such a move in the vicinity of Masisi would break Nkunda's promise to maintain his current lines, but would be consistent with his past behavior. ¶4. (SBU) To the north of CNDP territory, MONUC has noted an increase in the Mai Mai presence south of Kanyabayonga. CNDP forces are nearby in Kirumba, and the possibility of a clash is high, according to Rutshuru-based MONUC patrols. ¶5. (SBU) A USAID DART staff member, touring USG-funded facilities in North Kivu from December 13-17, reported seeing a large number of FARDC troops camped on hillsides in the small town of Kamandi, at the southern tip of Lake Edwards. The FARDC had blocked the road to the town, but the hills overlooking the lake were still visible. The DART member was unable to estimate the numbers, but said a Doctors without Borders source told him the FARDC had moved four brigades (12,000 soldiers) into the vicinity of the town, and that all the citizens had fled. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Shootings in town, movement of forces, and rampant rumors have contributed to higher tensions in Goma. Upon investigation, many reports turn out to be false or exaggerated. But potential flashpoints remain very real, and MONUC is braced for the possibility of a larger clash, particularly in the strategic Masisi region. End comment. GARVELINK