EASTERN DRC NOTES - DECEMBER 17

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001115 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - DECEMBER 17 REF: KINSHASA 1109 ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. Anti-LRA Operation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MONUC briefers reported on December 16 that Ugandan soldiers are using the MONUC base at Dungu for ongoing operations against the LRA. Following attacks on several LRA bases using helicopter gunships and fixed wing aircraft, the Ugandan army (UPDF) has begun inserting ground forces. MONUC expects up to 2,000 UPDF soldiers to deploy in the area around Bayati, the principal site where the LRA is concentrated. MONUC will deploy a liaison officer and additional supplies to Dungu to support the UPDF and provide food for FARDC battalions that are cooperating with the UPDF. ¶3. (SBU) In addition, MONUC reported that LRA forces have been dispersed and several camps burned. MONUC anticipates that LRA forces will flee north to Sudan, where the SPLA is deployed to intercept them. The border, however, is densely forested and highly porous. LRA forces could also choose to seek revenge within Uganda. (Note: MONUC also stated that Uganda claimed it had information that the LRA was planning attacks in Uganda prior to the beginning of the operation. End note.) Nairobi Talks -------------- ¶4. (SBU) MONUC had planned to fly the eight member CNDP negotiating team to Nairobi on December 16, but bad weather prevented the flight. MONUC will attempt the flight again today, when the talks had been scheduled to resume. (Note: It is unclear whether this flight delay will postpone resumption of the talks or, if so, when the talks can be expected to commence. End note.) North Kivu Security Situation -------------- ¶5. (SBU) MONUC has noted the presence of FDLR and Mai Mai forces in Ishasa following the withdrawal of the CNDP. A MONUC commander surmised that they had simply pulled back from the main highway as the CNDP advanced and have now reemerged. He also estimated that up to half of the IDP's who fled north during the advance have now returned. (Note: It was, however, not clear if this estimate included refugees who fled into Uganda. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Banditry is also increasing in areas north of Rutshuru. A MONUC source believes bandits were responsible for the shooting death of the passenger in the AVSI vehicle on December 15 (reftel). Additionally, a Mai Mai group close to Masisi claims the FARDC abducted 13 of its militia members and threatened to attack the FARDC unless they were freed. Mai Mai forces also reportedly stopped eight WFP trucks and thoroughly searched them. Ongoing DRC-Rwanda dialogue -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Presidential diplomatic advisor Marcellin Cishambo told ambassador on December 16 that talks between DRC and Rwandan representatives in the context of the "4 X 4 process" had ended that day and the Rwandans would return to Kigali today (December 17). Cishambo was upbeat but would not divulge specifics. He said no joint statement would be issued regarding the talks. We will press for more information. GARVELINK