Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KINGSTON875
2008-10-06 18:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:
CRIME IN JAMAICA
VZCZCXYZ0004 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHKG #0875/01 2801821 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 061821Z OCT 08 (CCY AD00E47634/MSI6663 510) FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6830
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000875
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SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR DS, DS/DSS. DS/IP/WHA, DS/IP/ITA
INL/LP BROWN, WHA/CAR CADIEUX
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: ASEC SNAR KCRM PREL JM
SUBJECT: CRIME IN JAMAICA
REF: A. KINGSTON 626 KINGSTON 702
B. KINGSTON 513 KINGSTON 566 KINGSTON 621
Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000875
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED SLUG LINE AND TAGS)
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR DS, DS/DSS. DS/IP/WHA, DS/IP/ITA
INL/LP BROWN, WHA/CAR CADIEUX
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: ASEC SNAR KCRM PREL JM
SUBJECT: CRIME IN JAMAICA
REF: A. KINGSTON 626 KINGSTON 702
B. KINGSTON 513 KINGSTON 566 KINGSTON 621
Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)
1. (SBU) Summary: Gruesome headlines of multiple murder and
discoveries of the mutilated bodies of children are all too
common in today's Jamaica. Despite the Prime Minister's
announcement of the urgency to pass new crime legislation,
the draft bills are taking a pounding in Parliamentary
hearings and the defense bar clearly seems to have the upper
hand in the debate. If legislation is passed, it will likely
not resemble the practical hard-hitting draft bills that were
presented by Golding's team. The Police, who took a hiatus
from enforcement in May, allowing the murder rate to
skyrocket over the 200 mark, are back performing in their
usual lackadaisical manner, and murders have dropped to a
more comfortable 120 per month. In a survey released by the
World Bank and UN Office of Drug and Crime, the economic cost
to Jamaica of crime was estimated to be 5.4 percent of GDP.
In a country where GDP growth this year is expected to remain
flat, that missing 5 percent would make a world of difference
to a population that suffers from an overly optimistic 10.8
percent unemployment rate per year. Jamaica appears at the
tipping point unless something is done to shift the paradigm.
End Summary
2. (SBU) Because of the revulsion caused by 2005's shocking
murder rate, in 2006, the Jamaica Constabulary Force made a
concerted effort to institute "hot spot" policing, an effort
to anticipate crime flare ups and mobilize resources to those
neighborhoods in advance to prevent crime. The result was a
noticeable drop in homicides in the targeted neighborhoods in
Kingston East and West in 2006 and in 2007. The unintended
consequence of concentration on the "hot spots," however, was
a sharp increase in crime, particularly murder in nearby
parishes, such as Clarendon and Manchester. This trend,
first spotted in 2007, continues today, with murder rates
increasing by 65 and 100 percent over last year's reported
numbers (year-to-date). The Kingston and St. Andrew, Area
(commonly known as Kingston Metropolitan Area or KMA) murder
numbers have also accelerated from 2006 and 2007's dips, with
Kingston Central, St. Andrew, South and North all registering
increases of 35, 15 and 26 percent respectively.
2008 Murder Rates, still beyond the pale
3. (SBU) The Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime and the
Assistant Commissioner of Police for Organized Crime
attributed a spike in killings in May 2008 to a small group
of JCF Senior officers and some rank in file members who
abandoned their patrol responsibilities in an effort to push
Commissioner Lewin out of the force and prevent his mission
to reform the JCF. Their inaction led to a record 202
murders, with 49 occurring in the final week of the month.
The uproar over the killings and the not-so-subtle campaign
waged in the media to lay all the blame at Commissioner
Lewin's feet, lead to his resignation on June 2. (Ref D )
Due to pressure from multiple sources, the Prime Minister
relented and Lewin recanted his resignation and remains
Commissioner today. In August 2008, Lewin continued his
shuffling of senior staff. The crime problem, particularly
the murder rate, has come down from May's high, but murder
and other violent crimes remain a significant challenge.
4. (SBU) Statistics provided by the Jamaica Constabulary
Force show that there has essentially been a steady increase
in murder rates since 2002. The numbers of double, triple
and group homicides have equally climbed. Gang-driven
homicides have gone from 15 percent of the total to 43
percent and climbing. According to the Economist, Jamaica's
murder rate has remained over 35 per 100,000 inhabitants for
the last ten years. It spiked at 63.2/100,000 in 2005 and
remained quite high in 2007 with 59.2/100,000, which
continues to make Jamaica a world leader in homicides. In
comparison, Colombia has a rate of 36.2/100,000. If murders
continue at the same average rate per month for the remainder
of the year, Jamaica looks ready to top 1600 murders for
2008. To put that in perspective, if the United States had
the same percentage of murders the 2008 total would be
173,116 persons. If this end-of-year projection proves out,
it would mean that 2008 would only miss 2005's explosive
murder total of 1674 by less than 100 bodies. In these days
of massive civilian casualties in Iraq, Afghanistan and
Darfur, Jamaica's 1600 killed may not seem like much, but the
impact of the seemingly out of control crime and violence on
this small island nation is deep.
You can "get away with murder" in Jamaica.
5. (SBU) Clearance rates for murder cases, (e.g. cleared
cases are those which result in an arrest and hand off to
prosecutors for action) have improved 12 percent over last
year, but aggregate rates remain 50 percent. In comparison,
U.S. clearance rates for murder and non-negligant
manslaughter were 61.2 percent in 2007. The biggest
challenge facing the JCF, Major Investigations Task Force
(MIT),which is charged with investigating most homicides, is
resources. On average the MIT is only able to put .5
detectives per murder case. In comparison, police forces in
the U.S. normally assign multiple officers to any case. Even
when an arrest does occur, the rates of prosecution and
conviction are abysmally low. Due to a horrendous backlog of
criminal cases, every year, the courts in Jamaica hear on
average only 45 cases for murder. Of those cases, only half
end in a conviction. These low rates only reinforce the
conventional wisdom that you can "get away with murder" in
Jamaica.
6. (SBU) The raw statistics are as follows:
Year Murder total Motive
2002 1045 15% Gang
2003 975 17% Gang
2004 1471 18% Gang
2005 1674 19% Gang
2006 1340 33% Gang
2007 1574 49% Gang
2008 1232 43% Gang
Note: (2008 stats are through 28 September)
7. (SBU) The noticeable jump in gang-related homicide, which
began in 2006, has only complicated the Government's efforts
to tackle Jamaica's crime problem. In Kingston's "garrison"
neighborhoods, where most of the killing still occurs, gangs
have effectively replaced the state by offering their own
gangland rule of law, employment, and to some extent social
services. In early June 2008, the Minister of National
Security and Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime
highlighted the problem at a public forum, stating that
Jamaica's estimated 125 gangs often turn against the women
and children in the community to take their revenge for
whatever slight. In July and August 2008 (Ref A and B),
Jamaica's Prime Minister shared his concerns about the gangs
and emphasized the need to take back neighborhoods using not
only "get tough on crime" measures but social and economic
development. Despite these private and some very public
calls by the Prime Minister and other GOJ officials of the
need to "dismantle the garrisons," the reality remains that
even when crimes are reported, arrests are few and
prosecutions are almost nonexistent as witness intimidation
to include murder of family members and wholesale violence
against the citizen population to include children is the
norm.
8. (SBU) When gang-induced violence flares, particularly when
a gang-leader is killed or is going to be arrested, the
populace in the neighborhood will often turn out en mass to
"defend" the don. Even non-law enforcement state actors,
such as the fire department, are often unable to enter. In
these volatile situations, Jamaica's police force simply is
not equipped to counter the gangs. The Government of Jamaica
then calls in the Jamaica Defense Force (JDF) to react and
form "joint" patrols, which usually consist of a majority of
JDF personnel and one or two JCF personnel, simply to have
someone with arrest power on the team. Normally, the area is
simply sealed off to prevent the contagion from spreading,
and personnel do not enter until the riot has blown itself
out. This of course leaves the innocent members of the
community exposed.
9. (U) For example:
-- In March 2003, a war erupted between two rival gangs in
Kingston's inner-city neighborhood "Olympic Gardens." Gang
members lit homes on fire and chased residents away. The
burning of the homes was in retaliation for the murder of two
gang members earlier that day.
-- In March 2005, residents of August Town in Kingston's
inner-city neighborhood cowered in their homes in fear for
days as a rival gang from a nearby neighborhood "Jungle 12"
terrorized them. In November 2005, murder and chaos gripped
Spanish Town once again as fires were lit and rampant gunfire
engulfed the area. Armed members of the "Clansmen" Gang and
police and military held running battles. The cause of the
violent protest: the death of the Clansmen leader Donovan
"Bulbie" Bennett a few days before in a nearby Parish,
Clarendon.
-- In February 2006, the slaying of the "One-Order"
gang-leader in Spanish Town sparked a riot. When the fire
department was called in to put out a fire that was lit in an
old courthouse building near the site of the murder,
"citizens" of the area chased away the firemen by throwing
rocks and bricks at them. In addition to the burning of the
courthouse, the gang-leader's supporters set up roadblocks
throughout the city and as soon as police and military
dismantled them, new ones were erected. Throughout the day,
gunfire was heard in all of Spanish Town. In June, the
Western town of Falmouth awaited an eruption of violence as
two rival gangs conducted tit for tat killings. The Community
leaders called for peace talks to try to prevent wholesale
violence.
-- In January 2008, protests ensued in "Tivoli Gardens," a
neighborhood once labeled "mother of all garrisons," when a
joint-police and military operation resulted in the death of
five gunman. Community residents blocked several roads
preventing members of the security forces from entering. In
May 2008, during a bloody weekend, eighteen persons were
killed, including a one-year-old baby. In July 2008, when
Tesha Miller, leader of the "Klansman" gang, was arrested for
the murder of the Chairman of the Jamaica Urban Transit
Company (Reftel C),citizens in Spanish Town again rioted,
lighting fires and calling on authorities to "release our
don."
Portrayal of Crime and Violence in the Media
10. (SBU) The owner of one of Jamaica's largest daily
newspapers, the "Jamaica Gleaner," recently told the NAS
Director that crime and violence unfortunately have become
such the norm that people expect to hear bad news and only
the most heinous of incidents garners more than a few hours
of public tut-tutting. For that reason, from time to time
the Gleaner's editorial board consciously decides to pull
crime stories off the front page in an attempt to reduce
societal numbness. The next month, the Gleaner will put it
back on the front page, above the fold to draw emphasis to
the problem and perhaps generate action from the political
elite and police. In early September, at a UNESCO-sponsored
regional conference on the Media and Caribbean Justice
Systems, Jamaica's Chief Justice, Zaila McCalla, chastised
the media for its tendency to highlight gruesome acts of
violence and sensationalize violence and sexual stories all
for the sake of increasing sales. She urged media owners and
journalists to think about the morals of Jamaica's youth and
the impact that this type of coverage has on them. She also
cautioned the press to be more even-handed it its coverage of
criminal cases, citing concerns about the media's influence
on jury verdicts.
Women and Children are all too often the victims
11. (SBU) The recent discovery of an 11 year-old girl's
decomposed body and the death of an nine-month old infant who
suffered horrific abuse have again focused societal attention
on a deep but not often discussed societal illness in
Jamaica, the physical and sexual misuse of children. On
October 2, the Information Minister decried the continued
trend of crime and violence and its impact on children.
Recent surveys have indicated that children in Jamaica as
young as 6-8 years old are participating in gangs. The rates
of reported cases of carnal abuse, sexual assault on children
continues to climb, year-to-date there has been a 4 percent
increase over 2007. Rape of adult women is also on the rise
with year-to-date statistics showing a 12 percent increase
over 2007. However, despite the media headlines, children
statistically represent a stable percentage of murder victims
during the last five years. The sheer numbers however when
put into perspective are sobering -- if an equal number of
child victims were murdered in the U.S. there would be more
than 6,000 dead children year to date.
12. (SBU) The raw statistics are as follows:
Year Murder total percent child victim percent
female victim
2003 975 4.6 8.9
2004 1471 4.4 9.6
2005 1674 5.3 11.0
2006 1340 4.8 11.3
2007 1574 4.0 9.2
2008 1232 4.5 10.2
Note: (2008 stats are through 28 September)
Property Crimes
13. (SBU) Unfortunately, due to historical under and
misreporting of property crimes, the current year's
statistics, which shows that year to date Jamaica has had a
shocking 203 percent increase in larceny, according to the
Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime, simply can not be
relied upon. In late 2007 the JCF implemented a new receipt
system. Every person who makes a complaint at a police
station or files a claim with an officer in the field, is
supposed to receive a receipt. Receipt books with unique
numbers were issued to all the stations. The statistics for
crime can now be measured against the receipt books. Because
of the receipt system, JCF Headquarters believes that it now
has a more accurate, but still not perfect, picture of the
true extent of the problem. 2008 statistics will likely
become the benchmark against which future property crime
surveys are measured.
GOJ Legislative Initiatives to Combat Crime and Violence
14. (SBU) According to the Commissioner of Police, in early
2008 to combat the spiking crime and violence, he asked the
Prime Minister to present a single bill in Parliament with a
one-year expiration term that would allow for the judicial
order of preventative detention for 28 days (renewable) of
suspects. In the Commissioner's view, this was the one
augmentation of current police powers that was needed to
enable the JCF to break the backs of the worst gangs in
Jamaica. This one bill, snowballed into a much larger GOJ
anti-crime initiative, which now includes six bills that were
announced by the Prime Minister on July 22.
15. (SBU) In what was billed as a major speech, the Prime
Minister's announced his legislative agenda to tackle the
growing crime problem in Jamaica. This announcement came
after several days of hard negotiating with the opposition at
Vale Royal. In this speech, Golding provided the broad
outlines of the anti-crime measures, changes in the Bail Act,
to make it harder for an accused to obtain bail, changes to
the Firearms act to increase the penalties for the use of
firearms, and changes to the Offenses Against the Person Act
to add minimum sentences. Golding warned lawmakers that he
intended to make production of the crime bills the highest
priority of his administration and even threatened to cancel
Parliament's August recess.
16. (SBU ) Despite Golding's promise of laying the bills in
Parliament with all due speed, the legislative drafts dragged
their way through the Attorney General's chambers and did not
arrive in Parliament until September 2. Rather than drafting
new legislation, the bills are a conglomeration of revisions
to existing legislation:
-- The Bail (Amendment) Act. The draft would amend the Bail
Act to permit the prosecutor's office to file an appeal of
the granting of bail. The accused would remain in prison
pending outcome of the appeal. The draft would also shift the
burden of proof for the granting of bail to the accused when
he is charged with serious crimes such as: murder, treason,
weapons smuggling, and drug smuggling. Currently the
presumption is that everyone (including alleged murderers) is
entitled to Bail, and the burden is on the state to prove
otherwise.
-- Bail (Interim Provisions for Specified Offences) Act 2008.
The draft, which has a one-year sunset clause, would not
permit bail, and require a mandatory sixty-day imprisonment,
renewable upon judicial order, for all persons accused of
serious crimes such as murder, treason, weapons smuggling,
and drug smuggling. (Note: this bill requires a 2/3 majority
to pass, due to its potential conflict with the Jamaican
Constitution)
-- Offences Against the Person (Amendment) Act, 2008. The
draft, creates a minimum sentence requirement of fifteen
years for conviction for shooting with intent to do bodily
harm or resisting arrest.
-- Amendment to the Constabulary Force Act (2008). The
draft, which has a one-year sunset clause, would permit the
Commissioner of Police to establish a cordon, and impose a
curfew, as he deems reasonable. The bill also expands the
powers of preventative detention from 24 to 72 hours during a
cordon or curfew. Persons arrested under this provision do
not have to be within the cordon boundaries, if they are
deemed to be a threat to the operation, they may be picked
up. The preventative detention must be affirmed by a Justice
of the Peace. (Note: this bill requires a 2/3 majority to
pass, due to its potential conflict with the Jamaican
Constitution)
-- Amendment to the Firearms Act (2008). The draft would
provide a minimum sentence of fifteen years for persons
convicted of weapons offences.
-- Parole (Amendment) Act (2008). The draft would prohibit
the granting of parole before serving a minimum of ten years
to any inmate who received a minimum fifteen year sentence
under the Offences Against the Person Act or Firearms Act.
17. (SBU) Since September 2, the bills have faced weeks of
very tough Parliamentary debate. Human rights organizations
and members of the Defense Attorney Bar have lambasted the
bills, particularly the amendment to the Bail Act, stating
that the Government wants to "deprive Jamaicans of their
freedom." On September 25, the Commissioner of Police,
Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime and Assistant
Commissioner of Police for Operations all testified in
support of the legislation. Parliament was not satisfied
with their testimony and requested additional empirical
evidence of the impact of the current Bail Act. On September
29, the officers provided Parliament details of at least
seven instances where individuals had gotten out on bail and
committed new offenses -- to include the murder of key
witnesses against them.
18. (SBU) Neither the Commissioner of Police, nor the
Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of National Security
will admit that the bills may be in jeopardy. Both continue
to express confidence that Parliament will pass the crime
legislation. However, given the recent shake-up within the
People's National Party, after the former Minister of
National Security Peter Phillips lost his leadership
challenge and Shadow Cabinet seat, passage of the ruling
party's crime legislation is not assured. For example,
Parliamentary discussions over another top priority of the
ruling party, legislation to establish an Anti-Corruption
Special Prosecutor, ended in deadlock on October 2. At a
minimum the Parliamentary debate will continue to drag out
and none of these bills will become law soon.
19. (SBU) For his part, the Commissioner is a bit astonished
that his one request for preventative detention has turned
into this Parliamentary circus. The Commissioner does not
personally like the interim provisions to the Bail Act,
because it doesn't allow for any discretion -- the gang
member who conducts a revenge killing will get sixty days
without bail, as will the abused spouse who snaps and kills
her abuser. Lewin is hopeful that the Parliamentary Joint
Select Committee will modify this bill to allow for some
judicial discretion as to the granting of Bail. This however
is a slippery slope that may lead back to the wholesale
granting of Bail, given the liberal leanings of the Jamaican
Judicial establishment and the corruption that still exists
in the system.
JCF Anti-crime Operational Plan
20. (SBU) In the mean time, not wanting to wait until
legislation was passed, in August, under the leadership of
the Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime, the Jamaica
Constabulary Force established its crime fighting operational
plan for the latter half of 2008. In this plan, the JCF
primary responsibility is to focus on breaking the back of
the gangs who rule inner-city neighborhoods. The plan's
outlines are long on platitudes -- "improve ability to
disrupt gang activity and enhance social intervention;"
"reduce importation of illicit firearms by 10% over 2007
figures;" and, "establish crime Hotspot Secretariat" -- but
short on the details of how these worthy goals are to be
achieved. Included in the plan are also several financially
unattainable quick fixes, use of CCTV as a crime reduction
and evidence gathering tool, the development of an automated
license plate reading system, and installation of a GPS
tracking system in all service vehicles to enable force
mobilization based on officer location. The plan also
includes non-operational political goals, such as seek
Government amendment of the Evidence Act to allow for
anonymous testimony, and for video testimony from vulnerable
witnesses and those residing abroad.
21. (SBU) The plan does have several practical and achievable
goals, including the implementation of a force wide Crime
Recording system -- on paper to begin with, and then
automated as funding permits. Additionally, the plan
requests inclusion of scene of crime training for junior
through senior investigators, which is already underway. To
implement this plan, the Deputy Commissioner of Police for
Crime has established five working groups: Investigation,
Intelligence, Forensic Science and Scene's of Crime,
Information and Communication Technology and Criminal
Justice.
22. (C) While this plan was being drafted, the Commissioner
of Police had already made a critical personnel change, one
that is likely to have the most lasting impact on the
reduction of crime, the removal of Deputy Commissioner of
Police Linval Bailey to the Port Authority, and the
appointment of Assistant Commissioner of Police Owen
Ellington. Ellington has a reputation as a capable police
officer, one who can motivate both the officer corps and
rank-and-file. He is no shrinking violet when it comes to
calling for tough measures against criminals. In a speech
before the Jamaica Employers Federation in July, Ellington
derided the politicians who support garrison neighborhoods as
a means of holding on to political power. According to one
of Ellington's colleagues, the Assistant Commissioner of
Police for Organized Crime, Lewin could not have found a
better person to tackle operational response to gang
violence. Ellington bears watching, for he was on Prime
Minster Golding's short list of candidate for Commissioner of
Police in 2007 and he would likely be the top choice to
succeed Lewin in 2011 at the expiry of Lewin's current
contract. (Ref D) Questions still remain about Ellington's
links to suspected criminals and dirty politicians. As part
of the Police Strategic Review, Ellington has agreed to
undergo a polygraph.
Biting the hand that feeds you -- will the politicians
actually sanction action against the gangs?
23. (C) In Jamaica, there remains a relationship between
gangs and political parties. This is both the stuff of past
legend when the former Prime Minister Edward Seaga would
supposedly participate in gun battles, and the very real
continuing symbiotic relationship that allows criminal gangs
to gain access to government largess through contracts for
goods and services. In the 1970s and early 1980s, the
financial links between the political class and urban gang
leaders were clear. Beginning in the 1980s and continuing in
the 1990s, the criminal gangs branched out and diversified
into drug, gun and human smuggling. Although the financial
links between gangs and political parties are weaker today,
gang leaders clearly understand that their survival depends
not only upon the intimidation of security forces, and the
wall of silence that exists among its community members, but
also upon political protection.
24. (C) For that reason, in urban Jamaica the grass roots
organizers for both of Jamaica's political parties still tend
to be the gangs. Criminal actors such as Kenneth "Skeng Don"
Black will publicly support political figures (most recently
Skeng Dong was at the side of PNP Challenger Dr. Peter
Phillips, Jamaica's former Minister of National Security).
The conventional wisdom of the link between gangs and
politicians is reinforced not only by a media obsession of
identifying a gang's political stripes (either ruling JLP or
PNP),but also by the very real presence and support of
political figures for gang leaders. For example, Jamaica's
Minister of Industry and Commerce, Karl Samuda, very publicly
attended the funeral of a gang leader from his constituency
in early 2008. The Prime Minister also has a much too cozy
relationship with a reputed Don, Christopher Coke, who rules
over part of Golding's constituency like the feudal king of
Tivoli Gardens. Additionally, a recent assessment funded by
USAID on the impact of corruption highlighted the umbilical
cords that continue to exist between the Jamaican political
class and criminal organizations. In private meetings with
the Ambassador and Chiefs of the UK and Canadian High
Commissioner, the team laid out a stark future for Jamaica.
It is a choice between supporting reform or a continued slide
into a Haiti-like chaos, which is a future even some Jamaican
politicians also fear. (Ref E) The Commissioner of Police
continues to assert that it is his firm intention to use the
Jamaica Constabulary Force to break the gangs and take action
against garrison leaders. If and when this occurs, it will
be interesting to see if the ruling JLP and opposition PNP
will support JCF actions.
Economic and Social Impact of Crime and Violence
25. (SBU) In 2007, the UN Office of Drugs and Crime in
conjunction with the World Bank released a study citing the
impact of crime and violence in the Caribbean. While the
physical and psychological impacts of crime and violence --
the dead and dismembered body, the broken and shattered
victims of rape and assault -- capture the media attention,
it is rare that the economic cost of crime, violence and
corruption are considered. The UNODC/WB study estimates that
if crime and violence were reduced to the rates experienced
by one of its neighbors, Costa Rica, Jamaica would see a
direct benefit of an increase of 5.4 percent in GDP. In an
economy that suffers from stagnant growth, the jump in GDP
would only be welcome. Crime, particularly the drug trade,
is valued at 7.5 percent of GDP in Jamaica. Production of
marijuana over the last few years has continued to grow,
while food crop and cash crop production has stagnated and
suffered damage from hurricanes. The funds earned from the
sale of locally grown marijuana are used to purchase guns,
which leads to more crime and violence.
26. (SBU) In a recent review of Jamaica and its Caribbean
neighbors, the Economist Intelligence Unit examined the
vulnerability of Jamaica's tourist industry to crime. This
industry, which is particularly sensitive to public
perception, is Jamaica's largest employer and accounts for
about 17 to 18 percent of GDP. Thus far the worst of
Jamaica's crime and violence has spared the island's "all
inclusive" resorts. However, Jamaica's Minister of Tourism
stated in June 2008 that crime and violence was the "single
most debilitating factor..." and he found its impact more
worrying than the fuel crisis and related turmoil in the
aviation industry. The harsh reality is that Jamaica is one
dead tourist away from a real crisis in this vital industry.
Bartlett called on Jamaican communities who benefit from
tourist dollars to protect it and save tourism from attack by
the "monster of crime."
27. (C) Comment: The conventional wisdom held by Jamaicans
and foreigners living in Jamaica is that the country is
sliding slowly but surely into the abyss. The phrase
"tipping point" is an apt description of Jamaica's current
status. There are strong reform-minded individuals, such as
the Commissioner of Police, who have not given up, but it
remains to be seen if Jamaica's political class will bolster
that limb that the reformers, such as the Commissioner, have
climbed out on, or saw it off. End Comment.
Johnson
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED SLUG LINE AND TAGS)
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR DS, DS/DSS. DS/IP/WHA, DS/IP/ITA
INL/LP BROWN, WHA/CAR CADIEUX
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: ASEC SNAR KCRM PREL JM
SUBJECT: CRIME IN JAMAICA
REF: A. KINGSTON 626 KINGSTON 702
B. KINGSTON 513 KINGSTON 566 KINGSTON 621
Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)
1. (SBU) Summary: Gruesome headlines of multiple murder and
discoveries of the mutilated bodies of children are all too
common in today's Jamaica. Despite the Prime Minister's
announcement of the urgency to pass new crime legislation,
the draft bills are taking a pounding in Parliamentary
hearings and the defense bar clearly seems to have the upper
hand in the debate. If legislation is passed, it will likely
not resemble the practical hard-hitting draft bills that were
presented by Golding's team. The Police, who took a hiatus
from enforcement in May, allowing the murder rate to
skyrocket over the 200 mark, are back performing in their
usual lackadaisical manner, and murders have dropped to a
more comfortable 120 per month. In a survey released by the
World Bank and UN Office of Drug and Crime, the economic cost
to Jamaica of crime was estimated to be 5.4 percent of GDP.
In a country where GDP growth this year is expected to remain
flat, that missing 5 percent would make a world of difference
to a population that suffers from an overly optimistic 10.8
percent unemployment rate per year. Jamaica appears at the
tipping point unless something is done to shift the paradigm.
End Summary
2. (SBU) Because of the revulsion caused by 2005's shocking
murder rate, in 2006, the Jamaica Constabulary Force made a
concerted effort to institute "hot spot" policing, an effort
to anticipate crime flare ups and mobilize resources to those
neighborhoods in advance to prevent crime. The result was a
noticeable drop in homicides in the targeted neighborhoods in
Kingston East and West in 2006 and in 2007. The unintended
consequence of concentration on the "hot spots," however, was
a sharp increase in crime, particularly murder in nearby
parishes, such as Clarendon and Manchester. This trend,
first spotted in 2007, continues today, with murder rates
increasing by 65 and 100 percent over last year's reported
numbers (year-to-date). The Kingston and St. Andrew, Area
(commonly known as Kingston Metropolitan Area or KMA) murder
numbers have also accelerated from 2006 and 2007's dips, with
Kingston Central, St. Andrew, South and North all registering
increases of 35, 15 and 26 percent respectively.
2008 Murder Rates, still beyond the pale
3. (SBU) The Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime and the
Assistant Commissioner of Police for Organized Crime
attributed a spike in killings in May 2008 to a small group
of JCF Senior officers and some rank in file members who
abandoned their patrol responsibilities in an effort to push
Commissioner Lewin out of the force and prevent his mission
to reform the JCF. Their inaction led to a record 202
murders, with 49 occurring in the final week of the month.
The uproar over the killings and the not-so-subtle campaign
waged in the media to lay all the blame at Commissioner
Lewin's feet, lead to his resignation on June 2. (Ref D )
Due to pressure from multiple sources, the Prime Minister
relented and Lewin recanted his resignation and remains
Commissioner today. In August 2008, Lewin continued his
shuffling of senior staff. The crime problem, particularly
the murder rate, has come down from May's high, but murder
and other violent crimes remain a significant challenge.
4. (SBU) Statistics provided by the Jamaica Constabulary
Force show that there has essentially been a steady increase
in murder rates since 2002. The numbers of double, triple
and group homicides have equally climbed. Gang-driven
homicides have gone from 15 percent of the total to 43
percent and climbing. According to the Economist, Jamaica's
murder rate has remained over 35 per 100,000 inhabitants for
the last ten years. It spiked at 63.2/100,000 in 2005 and
remained quite high in 2007 with 59.2/100,000, which
continues to make Jamaica a world leader in homicides. In
comparison, Colombia has a rate of 36.2/100,000. If murders
continue at the same average rate per month for the remainder
of the year, Jamaica looks ready to top 1600 murders for
2008. To put that in perspective, if the United States had
the same percentage of murders the 2008 total would be
173,116 persons. If this end-of-year projection proves out,
it would mean that 2008 would only miss 2005's explosive
murder total of 1674 by less than 100 bodies. In these days
of massive civilian casualties in Iraq, Afghanistan and
Darfur, Jamaica's 1600 killed may not seem like much, but the
impact of the seemingly out of control crime and violence on
this small island nation is deep.
You can "get away with murder" in Jamaica.
5. (SBU) Clearance rates for murder cases, (e.g. cleared
cases are those which result in an arrest and hand off to
prosecutors for action) have improved 12 percent over last
year, but aggregate rates remain 50 percent. In comparison,
U.S. clearance rates for murder and non-negligant
manslaughter were 61.2 percent in 2007. The biggest
challenge facing the JCF, Major Investigations Task Force
(MIT),which is charged with investigating most homicides, is
resources. On average the MIT is only able to put .5
detectives per murder case. In comparison, police forces in
the U.S. normally assign multiple officers to any case. Even
when an arrest does occur, the rates of prosecution and
conviction are abysmally low. Due to a horrendous backlog of
criminal cases, every year, the courts in Jamaica hear on
average only 45 cases for murder. Of those cases, only half
end in a conviction. These low rates only reinforce the
conventional wisdom that you can "get away with murder" in
Jamaica.
6. (SBU) The raw statistics are as follows:
Year Murder total Motive
2002 1045 15% Gang
2003 975 17% Gang
2004 1471 18% Gang
2005 1674 19% Gang
2006 1340 33% Gang
2007 1574 49% Gang
2008 1232 43% Gang
Note: (2008 stats are through 28 September)
7. (SBU) The noticeable jump in gang-related homicide, which
began in 2006, has only complicated the Government's efforts
to tackle Jamaica's crime problem. In Kingston's "garrison"
neighborhoods, where most of the killing still occurs, gangs
have effectively replaced the state by offering their own
gangland rule of law, employment, and to some extent social
services. In early June 2008, the Minister of National
Security and Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime
highlighted the problem at a public forum, stating that
Jamaica's estimated 125 gangs often turn against the women
and children in the community to take their revenge for
whatever slight. In July and August 2008 (Ref A and B),
Jamaica's Prime Minister shared his concerns about the gangs
and emphasized the need to take back neighborhoods using not
only "get tough on crime" measures but social and economic
development. Despite these private and some very public
calls by the Prime Minister and other GOJ officials of the
need to "dismantle the garrisons," the reality remains that
even when crimes are reported, arrests are few and
prosecutions are almost nonexistent as witness intimidation
to include murder of family members and wholesale violence
against the citizen population to include children is the
norm.
8. (SBU) When gang-induced violence flares, particularly when
a gang-leader is killed or is going to be arrested, the
populace in the neighborhood will often turn out en mass to
"defend" the don. Even non-law enforcement state actors,
such as the fire department, are often unable to enter. In
these volatile situations, Jamaica's police force simply is
not equipped to counter the gangs. The Government of Jamaica
then calls in the Jamaica Defense Force (JDF) to react and
form "joint" patrols, which usually consist of a majority of
JDF personnel and one or two JCF personnel, simply to have
someone with arrest power on the team. Normally, the area is
simply sealed off to prevent the contagion from spreading,
and personnel do not enter until the riot has blown itself
out. This of course leaves the innocent members of the
community exposed.
9. (U) For example:
-- In March 2003, a war erupted between two rival gangs in
Kingston's inner-city neighborhood "Olympic Gardens." Gang
members lit homes on fire and chased residents away. The
burning of the homes was in retaliation for the murder of two
gang members earlier that day.
-- In March 2005, residents of August Town in Kingston's
inner-city neighborhood cowered in their homes in fear for
days as a rival gang from a nearby neighborhood "Jungle 12"
terrorized them. In November 2005, murder and chaos gripped
Spanish Town once again as fires were lit and rampant gunfire
engulfed the area. Armed members of the "Clansmen" Gang and
police and military held running battles. The cause of the
violent protest: the death of the Clansmen leader Donovan
"Bulbie" Bennett a few days before in a nearby Parish,
Clarendon.
-- In February 2006, the slaying of the "One-Order"
gang-leader in Spanish Town sparked a riot. When the fire
department was called in to put out a fire that was lit in an
old courthouse building near the site of the murder,
"citizens" of the area chased away the firemen by throwing
rocks and bricks at them. In addition to the burning of the
courthouse, the gang-leader's supporters set up roadblocks
throughout the city and as soon as police and military
dismantled them, new ones were erected. Throughout the day,
gunfire was heard in all of Spanish Town. In June, the
Western town of Falmouth awaited an eruption of violence as
two rival gangs conducted tit for tat killings. The Community
leaders called for peace talks to try to prevent wholesale
violence.
-- In January 2008, protests ensued in "Tivoli Gardens," a
neighborhood once labeled "mother of all garrisons," when a
joint-police and military operation resulted in the death of
five gunman. Community residents blocked several roads
preventing members of the security forces from entering. In
May 2008, during a bloody weekend, eighteen persons were
killed, including a one-year-old baby. In July 2008, when
Tesha Miller, leader of the "Klansman" gang, was arrested for
the murder of the Chairman of the Jamaica Urban Transit
Company (Reftel C),citizens in Spanish Town again rioted,
lighting fires and calling on authorities to "release our
don."
Portrayal of Crime and Violence in the Media
10. (SBU) The owner of one of Jamaica's largest daily
newspapers, the "Jamaica Gleaner," recently told the NAS
Director that crime and violence unfortunately have become
such the norm that people expect to hear bad news and only
the most heinous of incidents garners more than a few hours
of public tut-tutting. For that reason, from time to time
the Gleaner's editorial board consciously decides to pull
crime stories off the front page in an attempt to reduce
societal numbness. The next month, the Gleaner will put it
back on the front page, above the fold to draw emphasis to
the problem and perhaps generate action from the political
elite and police. In early September, at a UNESCO-sponsored
regional conference on the Media and Caribbean Justice
Systems, Jamaica's Chief Justice, Zaila McCalla, chastised
the media for its tendency to highlight gruesome acts of
violence and sensationalize violence and sexual stories all
for the sake of increasing sales. She urged media owners and
journalists to think about the morals of Jamaica's youth and
the impact that this type of coverage has on them. She also
cautioned the press to be more even-handed it its coverage of
criminal cases, citing concerns about the media's influence
on jury verdicts.
Women and Children are all too often the victims
11. (SBU) The recent discovery of an 11 year-old girl's
decomposed body and the death of an nine-month old infant who
suffered horrific abuse have again focused societal attention
on a deep but not often discussed societal illness in
Jamaica, the physical and sexual misuse of children. On
October 2, the Information Minister decried the continued
trend of crime and violence and its impact on children.
Recent surveys have indicated that children in Jamaica as
young as 6-8 years old are participating in gangs. The rates
of reported cases of carnal abuse, sexual assault on children
continues to climb, year-to-date there has been a 4 percent
increase over 2007. Rape of adult women is also on the rise
with year-to-date statistics showing a 12 percent increase
over 2007. However, despite the media headlines, children
statistically represent a stable percentage of murder victims
during the last five years. The sheer numbers however when
put into perspective are sobering -- if an equal number of
child victims were murdered in the U.S. there would be more
than 6,000 dead children year to date.
12. (SBU) The raw statistics are as follows:
Year Murder total percent child victim percent
female victim
2003 975 4.6 8.9
2004 1471 4.4 9.6
2005 1674 5.3 11.0
2006 1340 4.8 11.3
2007 1574 4.0 9.2
2008 1232 4.5 10.2
Note: (2008 stats are through 28 September)
Property Crimes
13. (SBU) Unfortunately, due to historical under and
misreporting of property crimes, the current year's
statistics, which shows that year to date Jamaica has had a
shocking 203 percent increase in larceny, according to the
Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime, simply can not be
relied upon. In late 2007 the JCF implemented a new receipt
system. Every person who makes a complaint at a police
station or files a claim with an officer in the field, is
supposed to receive a receipt. Receipt books with unique
numbers were issued to all the stations. The statistics for
crime can now be measured against the receipt books. Because
of the receipt system, JCF Headquarters believes that it now
has a more accurate, but still not perfect, picture of the
true extent of the problem. 2008 statistics will likely
become the benchmark against which future property crime
surveys are measured.
GOJ Legislative Initiatives to Combat Crime and Violence
14. (SBU) According to the Commissioner of Police, in early
2008 to combat the spiking crime and violence, he asked the
Prime Minister to present a single bill in Parliament with a
one-year expiration term that would allow for the judicial
order of preventative detention for 28 days (renewable) of
suspects. In the Commissioner's view, this was the one
augmentation of current police powers that was needed to
enable the JCF to break the backs of the worst gangs in
Jamaica. This one bill, snowballed into a much larger GOJ
anti-crime initiative, which now includes six bills that were
announced by the Prime Minister on July 22.
15. (SBU) In what was billed as a major speech, the Prime
Minister's announced his legislative agenda to tackle the
growing crime problem in Jamaica. This announcement came
after several days of hard negotiating with the opposition at
Vale Royal. In this speech, Golding provided the broad
outlines of the anti-crime measures, changes in the Bail Act,
to make it harder for an accused to obtain bail, changes to
the Firearms act to increase the penalties for the use of
firearms, and changes to the Offenses Against the Person Act
to add minimum sentences. Golding warned lawmakers that he
intended to make production of the crime bills the highest
priority of his administration and even threatened to cancel
Parliament's August recess.
16. (SBU ) Despite Golding's promise of laying the bills in
Parliament with all due speed, the legislative drafts dragged
their way through the Attorney General's chambers and did not
arrive in Parliament until September 2. Rather than drafting
new legislation, the bills are a conglomeration of revisions
to existing legislation:
-- The Bail (Amendment) Act. The draft would amend the Bail
Act to permit the prosecutor's office to file an appeal of
the granting of bail. The accused would remain in prison
pending outcome of the appeal. The draft would also shift the
burden of proof for the granting of bail to the accused when
he is charged with serious crimes such as: murder, treason,
weapons smuggling, and drug smuggling. Currently the
presumption is that everyone (including alleged murderers) is
entitled to Bail, and the burden is on the state to prove
otherwise.
-- Bail (Interim Provisions for Specified Offences) Act 2008.
The draft, which has a one-year sunset clause, would not
permit bail, and require a mandatory sixty-day imprisonment,
renewable upon judicial order, for all persons accused of
serious crimes such as murder, treason, weapons smuggling,
and drug smuggling. (Note: this bill requires a 2/3 majority
to pass, due to its potential conflict with the Jamaican
Constitution)
-- Offences Against the Person (Amendment) Act, 2008. The
draft, creates a minimum sentence requirement of fifteen
years for conviction for shooting with intent to do bodily
harm or resisting arrest.
-- Amendment to the Constabulary Force Act (2008). The
draft, which has a one-year sunset clause, would permit the
Commissioner of Police to establish a cordon, and impose a
curfew, as he deems reasonable. The bill also expands the
powers of preventative detention from 24 to 72 hours during a
cordon or curfew. Persons arrested under this provision do
not have to be within the cordon boundaries, if they are
deemed to be a threat to the operation, they may be picked
up. The preventative detention must be affirmed by a Justice
of the Peace. (Note: this bill requires a 2/3 majority to
pass, due to its potential conflict with the Jamaican
Constitution)
-- Amendment to the Firearms Act (2008). The draft would
provide a minimum sentence of fifteen years for persons
convicted of weapons offences.
-- Parole (Amendment) Act (2008). The draft would prohibit
the granting of parole before serving a minimum of ten years
to any inmate who received a minimum fifteen year sentence
under the Offences Against the Person Act or Firearms Act.
17. (SBU) Since September 2, the bills have faced weeks of
very tough Parliamentary debate. Human rights organizations
and members of the Defense Attorney Bar have lambasted the
bills, particularly the amendment to the Bail Act, stating
that the Government wants to "deprive Jamaicans of their
freedom." On September 25, the Commissioner of Police,
Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime and Assistant
Commissioner of Police for Operations all testified in
support of the legislation. Parliament was not satisfied
with their testimony and requested additional empirical
evidence of the impact of the current Bail Act. On September
29, the officers provided Parliament details of at least
seven instances where individuals had gotten out on bail and
committed new offenses -- to include the murder of key
witnesses against them.
18. (SBU) Neither the Commissioner of Police, nor the
Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of National Security
will admit that the bills may be in jeopardy. Both continue
to express confidence that Parliament will pass the crime
legislation. However, given the recent shake-up within the
People's National Party, after the former Minister of
National Security Peter Phillips lost his leadership
challenge and Shadow Cabinet seat, passage of the ruling
party's crime legislation is not assured. For example,
Parliamentary discussions over another top priority of the
ruling party, legislation to establish an Anti-Corruption
Special Prosecutor, ended in deadlock on October 2. At a
minimum the Parliamentary debate will continue to drag out
and none of these bills will become law soon.
19. (SBU) For his part, the Commissioner is a bit astonished
that his one request for preventative detention has turned
into this Parliamentary circus. The Commissioner does not
personally like the interim provisions to the Bail Act,
because it doesn't allow for any discretion -- the gang
member who conducts a revenge killing will get sixty days
without bail, as will the abused spouse who snaps and kills
her abuser. Lewin is hopeful that the Parliamentary Joint
Select Committee will modify this bill to allow for some
judicial discretion as to the granting of Bail. This however
is a slippery slope that may lead back to the wholesale
granting of Bail, given the liberal leanings of the Jamaican
Judicial establishment and the corruption that still exists
in the system.
JCF Anti-crime Operational Plan
20. (SBU) In the mean time, not wanting to wait until
legislation was passed, in August, under the leadership of
the Deputy Commissioner of Police for Crime, the Jamaica
Constabulary Force established its crime fighting operational
plan for the latter half of 2008. In this plan, the JCF
primary responsibility is to focus on breaking the back of
the gangs who rule inner-city neighborhoods. The plan's
outlines are long on platitudes -- "improve ability to
disrupt gang activity and enhance social intervention;"
"reduce importation of illicit firearms by 10% over 2007
figures;" and, "establish crime Hotspot Secretariat" -- but
short on the details of how these worthy goals are to be
achieved. Included in the plan are also several financially
unattainable quick fixes, use of CCTV as a crime reduction
and evidence gathering tool, the development of an automated
license plate reading system, and installation of a GPS
tracking system in all service vehicles to enable force
mobilization based on officer location. The plan also
includes non-operational political goals, such as seek
Government amendment of the Evidence Act to allow for
anonymous testimony, and for video testimony from vulnerable
witnesses and those residing abroad.
21. (SBU) The plan does have several practical and achievable
goals, including the implementation of a force wide Crime
Recording system -- on paper to begin with, and then
automated as funding permits. Additionally, the plan
requests inclusion of scene of crime training for junior
through senior investigators, which is already underway. To
implement this plan, the Deputy Commissioner of Police for
Crime has established five working groups: Investigation,
Intelligence, Forensic Science and Scene's of Crime,
Information and Communication Technology and Criminal
Justice.
22. (C) While this plan was being drafted, the Commissioner
of Police had already made a critical personnel change, one
that is likely to have the most lasting impact on the
reduction of crime, the removal of Deputy Commissioner of
Police Linval Bailey to the Port Authority, and the
appointment of Assistant Commissioner of Police Owen
Ellington. Ellington has a reputation as a capable police
officer, one who can motivate both the officer corps and
rank-and-file. He is no shrinking violet when it comes to
calling for tough measures against criminals. In a speech
before the Jamaica Employers Federation in July, Ellington
derided the politicians who support garrison neighborhoods as
a means of holding on to political power. According to one
of Ellington's colleagues, the Assistant Commissioner of
Police for Organized Crime, Lewin could not have found a
better person to tackle operational response to gang
violence. Ellington bears watching, for he was on Prime
Minster Golding's short list of candidate for Commissioner of
Police in 2007 and he would likely be the top choice to
succeed Lewin in 2011 at the expiry of Lewin's current
contract. (Ref D) Questions still remain about Ellington's
links to suspected criminals and dirty politicians. As part
of the Police Strategic Review, Ellington has agreed to
undergo a polygraph.
Biting the hand that feeds you -- will the politicians
actually sanction action against the gangs?
23. (C) In Jamaica, there remains a relationship between
gangs and political parties. This is both the stuff of past
legend when the former Prime Minister Edward Seaga would
supposedly participate in gun battles, and the very real
continuing symbiotic relationship that allows criminal gangs
to gain access to government largess through contracts for
goods and services. In the 1970s and early 1980s, the
financial links between the political class and urban gang
leaders were clear. Beginning in the 1980s and continuing in
the 1990s, the criminal gangs branched out and diversified
into drug, gun and human smuggling. Although the financial
links between gangs and political parties are weaker today,
gang leaders clearly understand that their survival depends
not only upon the intimidation of security forces, and the
wall of silence that exists among its community members, but
also upon political protection.
24. (C) For that reason, in urban Jamaica the grass roots
organizers for both of Jamaica's political parties still tend
to be the gangs. Criminal actors such as Kenneth "Skeng Don"
Black will publicly support political figures (most recently
Skeng Dong was at the side of PNP Challenger Dr. Peter
Phillips, Jamaica's former Minister of National Security).
The conventional wisdom of the link between gangs and
politicians is reinforced not only by a media obsession of
identifying a gang's political stripes (either ruling JLP or
PNP),but also by the very real presence and support of
political figures for gang leaders. For example, Jamaica's
Minister of Industry and Commerce, Karl Samuda, very publicly
attended the funeral of a gang leader from his constituency
in early 2008. The Prime Minister also has a much too cozy
relationship with a reputed Don, Christopher Coke, who rules
over part of Golding's constituency like the feudal king of
Tivoli Gardens. Additionally, a recent assessment funded by
USAID on the impact of corruption highlighted the umbilical
cords that continue to exist between the Jamaican political
class and criminal organizations. In private meetings with
the Ambassador and Chiefs of the UK and Canadian High
Commissioner, the team laid out a stark future for Jamaica.
It is a choice between supporting reform or a continued slide
into a Haiti-like chaos, which is a future even some Jamaican
politicians also fear. (Ref E) The Commissioner of Police
continues to assert that it is his firm intention to use the
Jamaica Constabulary Force to break the gangs and take action
against garrison leaders. If and when this occurs, it will
be interesting to see if the ruling JLP and opposition PNP
will support JCF actions.
Economic and Social Impact of Crime and Violence
25. (SBU) In 2007, the UN Office of Drugs and Crime in
conjunction with the World Bank released a study citing the
impact of crime and violence in the Caribbean. While the
physical and psychological impacts of crime and violence --
the dead and dismembered body, the broken and shattered
victims of rape and assault -- capture the media attention,
it is rare that the economic cost of crime, violence and
corruption are considered. The UNODC/WB study estimates that
if crime and violence were reduced to the rates experienced
by one of its neighbors, Costa Rica, Jamaica would see a
direct benefit of an increase of 5.4 percent in GDP. In an
economy that suffers from stagnant growth, the jump in GDP
would only be welcome. Crime, particularly the drug trade,
is valued at 7.5 percent of GDP in Jamaica. Production of
marijuana over the last few years has continued to grow,
while food crop and cash crop production has stagnated and
suffered damage from hurricanes. The funds earned from the
sale of locally grown marijuana are used to purchase guns,
which leads to more crime and violence.
26. (SBU) In a recent review of Jamaica and its Caribbean
neighbors, the Economist Intelligence Unit examined the
vulnerability of Jamaica's tourist industry to crime. This
industry, which is particularly sensitive to public
perception, is Jamaica's largest employer and accounts for
about 17 to 18 percent of GDP. Thus far the worst of
Jamaica's crime and violence has spared the island's "all
inclusive" resorts. However, Jamaica's Minister of Tourism
stated in June 2008 that crime and violence was the "single
most debilitating factor..." and he found its impact more
worrying than the fuel crisis and related turmoil in the
aviation industry. The harsh reality is that Jamaica is one
dead tourist away from a real crisis in this vital industry.
Bartlett called on Jamaican communities who benefit from
tourist dollars to protect it and save tourism from attack by
the "monster of crime."
27. (C) Comment: The conventional wisdom held by Jamaicans
and foreigners living in Jamaica is that the country is
sliding slowly but surely into the abyss. The phrase
"tipping point" is an apt description of Jamaica's current
status. There are strong reform-minded individuals, such as
the Commissioner of Police, who have not given up, but it
remains to be seen if Jamaica's political class will bolster
that limb that the reformers, such as the Commissioner, have
climbed out on, or saw it off. End Comment.
Johnson