JAMAICA RESPONSE: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD AND COMMODITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 KINGSTON 000366 SIPDIS DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JTILGHMAN) (VDEPIRRO) STATE FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (JANET SPECK) USDA/FAS FOR (BGRUNENFELDER) USDA/FAS FOR FAA AREA OFFICER (JBAILEY) SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR SENV ECON ETRD SOCI PREL AGR EAID ENRG JM, XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA RESPONSE: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD AND COMMODITY PRICES REF: STATE 39410 KINGSTON 354 KINGSTON 111 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Jamaica does not currently face a chronic shortage in aggregate food supplies, but soaring prices over the last two years have led to a growing nutritional deficit among the most vulnerable citizens. Food substitution has also been on the rise as consumers search for cheaper alternatives amidst declining real wages. In particular, consumers are switching from fresh meats and vegetables to cheaper canned substitutes. Government officials and policy makers have expressed concerns about the health implications of the changing consumption patterns and the unavailability of key stables like dairy products and rice. Against this background, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has embarked on an effort to restore the ailing domestic agricultural sector and improve the country's food security. The rising food prices are expected to feed inflationary expectations as workers demand higher wages to maintain their purchasing power. A significant amount of food items are imported; thus, any rise in international prices will have a direct pass through effect. Making matters worse is the weakening Jamaican currency, which further reduces the average Jamaican's purchasing power. End Summary. Food For Thought -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Despite numerous attempts dating to the 1930s to pursue food security measures, Jamaica still remains a net importer of food. The most noted attempt at self reliance came during the 1970s socialist experiment, when Prime Minster Michael Manley popularized the self reliance slogan. This philosophy has gone through various mutations and has resurfaced in the present slogan from Prime Minister Bruce Golding, "eat what you grow and grow what you eat." However, the irony about the current situation is that the traditionally neo-liberal Jamaica Labor Party and its western educated Agriculture Minister Christopher Tufton is at the forefront of this emerging paradigm. This position appears to be gaining traction among the populace. Increasing dependency on imported food coupled with soaring world prices have provided Tufton with the perfect platform to resuscitate the moribund agricultural sector. The Minister's inward-looking agricultural stimulus policies are therefore seen as a direct response to the perceived mismanagement of the liberalization process under the previous government. The Raw Numbers -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Jamaica recorded its highest level of inflation in over a decade, 16.8 percent, during 2007 (see reftels). For the most part, the inflationary impulses emanated from food, which accounts for almost half of the basket of goods and services. Prospects for the current year look grim, as inflation for the first three months of 2008 was 5.2 percent. Even worse, food-related inflation is hovering near 8 percent. The GOJ removed a temporary subsidy on basic food items at the end of March, which caused a spike in inflation which is likely to continue in the coming months. The main staples of wheat flour and rice have jumped by 30 percent in April. If international commodity prices continue their upward trend the situation could become bleak for the 75 percent of Jamaicans (2 million) who spend up to 50 percent of their disposable income on food and a further 15 percent on rising energy costs. Of these two million citizens, almost 400,000 are living on less than USD 3 per day. How Did We Get Here? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As the country seeks answers to its current predicament, Tufton has been forced to come up with explanations. It appears that rapid market liberalization may become the scapegoat. The mismanagement of market liberalization, which began in the early 1990s, is worth examining as a cause of the decline in agricultural production, Tufton told Parliament on April 19. He said stamp duties on agricultural goods were reduced in 1992 as a condition for accessing a World Bank Agricultural Sector Adjustment Loan, leading to a significant increase in imports of fruits, vegetables, meats, KINGSTON 00000366 002 OF 006 and poultry parts. Although Tufton said the GOJ is not opposed to liberalization, he maintained that the previous government had pursued a policy that liberalized the economy too quickly. Tufton said this course of action had the direct effect of allowing in relatively cheaper imports which quickly replaced local production. As a reference, Tufton reminded Parliament that no other sub-sector has been more affected by the mismanaged liberalization than the diary industry. According to Tufton, the lure of cheaper milk from Europe, which was heavily subsidized for its own food security, led to the demise of Jamaica's diary sector. This anecdote has resonated with the public due to the unavailability of milk on the international market. "The issue now is not just one of access to cheap foods, but of food security to society and the economy," stated Tufton. Demand Factors -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Given that Jamaica's agriculture base has declined and it has become so dependent on imports, there will be no immediate relief in sight. The country provides only 39 percent of its basic food requirements, which is composed mostly of starchy foods and some animal protein. The additional 61 percent or USD 762 million is sourced from imports, with the U.S accounting for roughly 50 percent of the total. The main staples in the typical Jamaican diet are wheat flour, rice, legumes, vegetables, local starchy foods (roots and tubers),and poultry. A large part of the diet of children under twelve years consists of milk and cheese. While the prices of locally produced food items have been influenced by international market conditions, all imported products have recorded high double digit increases over the last two to three years, and especially during the last six to twelve months. The most severely affected items are wheat flour, rice, animal protein and dairy products. In fact, there is a chronic shortage of milk and eggs, making the price effect almost irrelevant. The major increases during 2007 are: a) bread and cereal - 31 percent; b) meats - 24 percent; c) fish and seafood - 17 percent; d) dairy - 21 percent; e) oils - 21 percent; f) fruits - 23 percent; g) vegetables - 36 percent and: h) starchy foods (rice and wheat flour) - 40 percent. Tin Is In, Meat Is Out! -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Currently, there are no chronic shortages in aggregate supplies, although at current prices most consumers face a serious challenge in achieving adequate nutritional requirements. The difficulties increase as consumers have to allocate a larger portion of their decreasing real incomes to other competing necessities, which also are registering price hikes. According to Ministry of Health (MOH) officials, this is leading to a growing nutritional deficit, with preliminary data already showing increases in starch consumption versus protein and vegetables among poorer Jamaicans. There has also been a noticeable increase in the consumption of canned (tinned) food as consumers switch away from fresh meats and vegetables. Additionally, health professionals in rural Jamaica are reporting increased nutritional-deficiency diseases among these poorer groups. ¶7. (SBU) MOH officials are also concerned that malnutrition diseases such as kwashiorkor and marasmus could escalate, especially among children and the elderly. The national school feeding program, which is vital to child nutrition, is being hindered by rising food prices. Among middle income groups, consumers are replacing higher priced meats and seafood with lower priced substitutes such as trout from Guyana. The current food situation is having a greater impact on the urban poor, who unlike their rural counterparts lack immediate access to land for subsistence farming. Incomes also have lagged overall inflation for both public and private sector workers. If wages continue to rise at a rate below the rate of inflation, it could lead to labor disputes. Supply Bottlenecks -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although demand and prices for agriculture products are on KINGSTON 00000366 003 OF 006 the rise, investors in the sector have not yet reacted. The delayed response is due to the rudimentary state of the sector and uncertainty surrounding the long term availability of markets--especially for investors who have to build up capacity in areas such as dairy and beef farming. In any event, there will be at least a six to twelve month lag time for the production of fruits and vegetables and three to five year lag for dairy, beef and orchard crops. And this scenario assumes favorable weather conditions, which are uncertain, given Jamaica's vulnerability to extreme weather, such as hurricanes, drought, and flooding. In the last three years alone, the country has been affected by four major hurricanes, with the last causing an estimated USD 300 million in damages. Roughly half of this damage was to the agriculture sector. Rising input cost, particularly fertilizers, also has restricted the ability of existing farmers to increase supply in response to higher prices. ¶9. (SBU) With the possible exception of poultry, Jamaica does not have the capacity to hold food inventory, thus leading to even greater price volatility and exposure to rising prices of imports. This is compounded by the fact that competing imports of non-CARICOM origin have to face a common external tariff (CET) of up to 25 percent, with rice from Guyana being a major case in point. Guyana is diverting most of its rice supplies to Europe from Jamaica to benefit from the windfall prices. Guyana has been unwilling to support a suspension of the CET to allow Jamaica to access cheaper imports from the United States. In response, the GOJ has been making a concerted effort to fast track the adoption of new technologies such as greenhouse production and improved animal genetics. Political Impact -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Despite the soaring prices, there has been no attendant social instability, suggesting that Jamaicans remain resilient even under trying circumstances. This could be partly explained by the continued growth in remittances as well as a responsible approach by opinion makers and political leadership. Additionally, while there is growing public concern and debate, it has not transcended into friction between social classes or ethnic groups. And with the public relatively exposed to the international media which has been presenting the causes of the price hikes, most of the blame has been attributed to external factors. For his part, Prime Minister Bruce Golding, in his maiden address to Parliament, attributed part of the blame to rapid demand from fast growing China and India (reftel B). However, he also noted that as the price of oil climbs, crops normally grown for food are being used to make fuel, putting further pressure on the dwindling supplies of food. "The world is now facing the worst global food crisis in more than 50 years. In the last few weeks, food riots have broken out in 33 countries. The UN has warned that more countries are likely to erupt", concluded Golding. Economic and Environmental Factors -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The impact of the food crisis has not been limited to inflation. The country's trade deficit also has come in for some pressure, with food imports alone increasing by USD 100 million in 2007, adding to the country's burgeoning trade deficit, which stands at over 15 percent of GDP. The increased inflation also has had an impact on the monetary and fiscal side, with the central bank forced to ratchet up rates to compensate for rising prices in an effort to discourage people from switching from domestic to foreign assets, thereby putting pressure on the local currency. This is particularly important, as any depreciation in the local currency only adds to inflation of imports. But the rate hike has had negative consequences for fiscal policy, with the GOJ being forced to allocate even more funds to service its exorbitant debt. The increased rates will also have serious implications for the private sector, which is expected to provide the much needed push for economic growth. As such, the GOJ might be hard pressed to meet its medium term economic targets (reftels). Latest figures suggest that there are 197,000 registered farmers in Jamaica, with the overwhelming majority being subsistence farmers. As such, there are only a handful of net producers of food in Jamaica benefiting from rising food prices. To date, there have been no reports of significant environmental degradation. However, as food and fuel prices continue to escalate, there is expected to be an increase in KINGSTON 00000366 004 OF 006 deforestation to produce charcoal. Government Response -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The GOJ has yet to react to the rising prices by reducing tariffs. However, the GOJ has applied to the CARICOM Secretariat for the removal of the CET on rice. Most of Jamaica's food export is traditional (like sugar and bananas),and as such there will be no need to restrict exports. There have been no incidents of nationalizations and/or redistributions of private firms or industries, and given the country's strong property rights and legal system, there is not expected to be any movement in this direction. To contain cost push inflation influenced by rising prices, the GOJ has been forced to institute tight monetary policy to manage core inflation. Most of the GOJ support has been in the form of subsidies and transfer payments to the poor. The first response from the GOJ took the form of a three month price support subsidy at a cost of USD 7 million. When the program expired at the end of March, the government announced a more targeted program, which is expected to last for twelve months at a cost of about USD 11 million. This program is aimed at the almost 400,000 Jamaicans living below the poverty line. Let Them Eat Cassava! -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In a direct response to soaring prices and the unavailability of items such as rice, Tufton outlined a medium to long-term plan geared at partial import substitution. Central to this strategy is the production and domestic consumption of cassava (yucca). The strategy also includes a partial displacement of imported starch based animal feed ingredients. So impassioned was the Minister in selling this idea to the populace that it earned him the title, Dr. Cassava. But, the pending crisis has also forced the Minister to focus on building up a platform to ensure future food security by outlining plans to transform the agricultural sector. And unlike the past initiatives which were largely built on protectionism, Tufton was quick to point out that the current transformation would be based on research and development. Chief among the new initiatives are green house technology, orchard crop expansion, small ruminant (goats and sheep) expansion, reviving major cattle breeds, and the demonstration of more productive and mechanized farming practices. Already the GOJ has provided USD 1 million in fertilizer subsidies and USD 1 million to encourage farmers to grow more yams and sweet potatoes. ¶14. (SBU) In order to drive the adoption of new agriculture technology, the GOJ is establishing a center for excellence in advanced technology in agriculture. The facility will benefit from a USD 3 million grant from the Spanish government over three years. The GOJ has also negotiated a number of bilateral technical cooperation programs involving the Governments of Canada, the United States, Brazil, Costa Rica, and Cuba. In particular, the GOJ is negotiating a USD 5 million grant through the Canadian International Development Agency, of which USD 2 million will be allocated to support the development of greenhouse clusters. The GOJ also has signed an agreement with Costa Rica and Cuba for technology transfer in greenhouse operations. Negotiations also are advanced with the Venezuelan government to procure cheaper ingredients for fertilizer production. The GOJ has targeted policies to revive the livestock industry and has allocated over USD 4 million to acquire breeding stock for the dairy and small ruminants industries. Policy/Program Recommendations -------------- ¶15. (SBU) The best strategy for assisting the most vulnerable section of the population is: a) the continuation of targeted food aid program through NGO's such as the program with "Food for the Poor" with USG assistance if made available and b) re-introduction of targeted concessionary food program, such as the PL480 Title II. Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Karl Samuda has been lobbying the Ambassador to immediately access rice under the PL480 program to avert a crisis in the supply of the commodity. This is important, as Minister Samuda is well aware that any chronic shortage in this basic staple could lead to social instability. On April 28 Samuda took the unconventional step of ordering 30,000 tons of rice from the United States, which is in contravention of CARICOM rules. Samuda justifies the action saying he is trying to avert a KINGSTON 00000366 005 OF 006 potential crisis of a major rice shortage. With Jamaica embarking on a program to substitute high priced imported starch with cassava or other lower priced substitutes for use as animal feed, the USG could also provide technical assistance (nutritionist) in alternative feed formulation. ¶16. (SBU) USAID has been providing assistance in green house technology and protected agriculture and within limited budget is planning to expand this effort over the coming years. If additional funds were available, the program could be expanded even further, given the GOJ's focus on this area. Over the coming 2-3 years, a large proportion of vegetables could be produced in country, thereby helping Jamaican farmers and local businesses. The USG also could provide technical assistance in the form of scientific exchange on animal husbandry to beef up the ailing industries. While the price of inorganic fertilizer escalates, there is still a lot of organic material going to waste in Jamaica, which could be utilized for soil amendment and fertility improvement. The USG could therefore provide expertise in organic agriculture, which also creates an opportunity for Jamaica to tap into the lucrative international market for organic foods. ¶17. (SBU) Traditionally, Jamaica has produced relatively large amounts of fruits, much of which go to waste as the processing technology is non-existent. This issue was raised by Prime Minister Bruce Golding during his Parliamentary debate on April 22. Golding noted that although Jamaica produces some of the highest quality fruit products, it still imports over USD 113 million in fruit concentrate to produce juices. This is a relatively easy area for intervention if support can be provided in food processing technology. While all of the foregoing is critical, marketing will be the single major challenge facing the agricultural sector. In many instances it is not inefficiency of production which afflicts the sector, but a lack of market intelligence, which eventually drives many farmers out of business. The single most important intervention might therefore be the development of a comprehensive market information system (MIS). In fact, Minister Tufton has expressed interest in duplicating U.S. Department of Agriculture's data collection and MIS platforms. In this regard, in a recent meeting Minister Tufton requested that USAID provide a long term marketing consultant. In further discussions with the Ministry USAID agreed to contract with this consultant for three months and the Ministry would continue the contract for at least a year with USAID funding, if the consultant is satisfactory. The consultant will focus initially on protected area and greenhouse vegetable marketing and cassava and is expected to begin work in early June. Summary of Key Areas for USG Intervention -------------- ¶18. (U) A summary of the key areas in which the USG could assist the GOJ on rising food and commodity prices are: a. The USG could consider making a targeted food aid program through NGOs such as the program with "Food for the Poor" available and/or the re-creation of targeted concessionary food programs such as the PL480 Title II; b. Augment USAID funding for providing the USG assistance in green house technology/protected agriculture to expand domestic production; c. The USG could provide technical assistance (nutritionist) in alternative feed formulation to assist Jamaica in their program to substitute higher priced imports with lower priced substitutes for animal feed; d. Develop a comprehensive market information system (MIS) similar to the U.S. Department of Agricultures data collection and MIS platforms with an initial focus on protected area and greenhouse vegetable marketing. Comment -------------- ¶19. (SBU) High food prices are expected to remain for the near term and will continue to wreak havoc with the most vulnerable groups in Jamaica. Negative shocks from adverse weather conditions could be devastating to the country and could provide the trigger for social KINGSTON 00000366 006 OF 006 instability. While the GOJ has outlined a plethora of initiatives, they will not impact prices in the short run, as the sector requires a recovery period of at least three years. But this raises the even greater concern of long-term market protection, given the lag effect of agricultural production cycles. In fact, Tufton is on record as saying that the factors leading to the current situation will never be allowed to happen again, the clearest signal yet of the GOJ's intention to pursue some level of protectionism. On the social side, MOH officials are particularly worried about the potential implications on a populace already susceptible to chronic nutritional related diseases. Rising food prices also are expected to feed inflationary expectations, exacerbating further price hikes as workers argue for increased wages to maintain their purchasing power. Given that almost 70 percent of food is imported, any up tick in international prices will have a direct pass through effect on the island. Coupled with the weakening currency, the price effect magnifies and the risk of serious consequences increases. End comment. HEG