JAMAICAN BUDGET TECHNOCRATS OPTIMISTIC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 000277 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JTILGHMAN) WHA/EPSC (VDEPIRRO) TREASURY FOR SARA GRAY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ECPS ETRD PREL PGOV EINV EAIR JM CH VZ XL SUBJECT: JAMAICAN BUDGET TECHNOCRATS OPTIMISTIC REF: A. 07 KINGSTON 1806, ¶B. 07 KINGSTON 1793, ¶C. KINGSTON 263, ¶D. KINGSTON 111, ¶E. KINGSTON 021 ¶F. KINGSTON 051 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) released a USD 7 billion estimated expenditure budget on March 27. The fiscal deficit is 5.5 percent of GDP, but should return to the 4.5 percent of GDP target for next year. The GOJ is focusing on increased tax compliance and taking tougher measures against tax dodgers. The GOJ received USD 70 million from Venezuela from the sale of part of its refinery. Air Jamaica remains a major drag on the budget, while Air China has emerged as a potential buyer of the airline and possible future investor in infrastructure projects. The GOJ also considers other divestment options, as the fiscal future looks slightly brighter, with a goal of 3 percent GDP growth. -------------- Fiscal Position Improves -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Over a private breakfast on March 31, Ministry of Finance (MOF) Senior Director of the Fiscal Policy Management Unit, Courtney Williams, told emboffs that the fiscal deficit for 2007/08 was expected to be about 5.5 percent of GDP. Although above the original target of 4.5 percent, the figure should be well received, given that the budget has had to absorb unanticipated external and weather related shocks (reftel A). Had the GOJ not sold 49 percent of a local oil refinery, Petrojam, to Venezuela for USD 70 million the figures would have been far worse. The GOJ received full payment from Venezuela after some previous delays (reftel B). On March 27, the GOJ tabled a USD 7 billion expenditure budget and is projecting a reduced deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP for the 2008/09 fiscal year. Williams was quick to point out that, unlike previous years, the target was non-negotiable in order to rebuild credibility. Responding to the 20 percent increase in the budget, the MOF officials stated that although the increase appears large, it had to be taken in context. Over USD 560 million is being allocated to principal repayment. This, they said, is expected to start having positive results for debt service in the short term -------------- How Will the Budget Be Financed? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With Minister of Finance Audley Shaw already announcing that there will be no major tax hike, the new budget is expected to be financed by a combination of increased tax compliance and to a lesser extent tax reforms (reftel C). Williams said there might be the usual increases on the consumption of products like cigarettes and alcohol, commonly referred to as sin taxes. He said Shaw was steering clear of any major tax hike, as it would only add to inflation already in double digits (reftel D) and more importantly land a serious blow to the successful completion of a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the unions. -------------- Increased Tax Collection -------------- ¶4. (SBU) With higher tax rates out as an option, significant emphasis is expected to be placed on increased tax compliance, which now stands at around 45-50 percent. Unlike previous years, compliance efforts will be accompanied by action, according to the Ministry officials. Already two high profile individuals have been arrested and brought before the revenue courts (reftel C). Tax officials are preparing estimated tax bills, including interest and penalties, to be sent to individuals and companies that did not file tax returns by the March 17 deadline. ¶5. (SBU) Former army officer and Commissioner of Police, Colonel Trevor McMillian, has been recruited to head up a Revenue Protection Division to pay special emphasis on customs, which is notorious for its corruption and by extension revenue leakages. The MOF officials said corruption, fear of enforcing the rules, and a lack of political will were the three biggest problems affecting collections. As part of the tax reform process, government is looking at simplifying the tax code. KINGSTON 00000277 002 OF 003 -------------- Still Courting Multilateral Lenders -------------- ¶6. The GOJ continues its recent efforts to increase borrowing from multilateral financial institutions. Senior Director of the Debt Management Unit, Pamela McLaren, told Econoffs that there was a solid commitment from the multilaterals to increase lending to Jamaica, with only the fine details to be finalized. Shaw recently announced he had received USD 10 million from the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and that another USD 20 million could be forthcoming (reftel C). Borrowing will remain high on the agenda of the JLP-led government; but there is no immediate rush to tap the external capital markets. This provides Jamaica with some breathing space to see if international markets settle before any efforts are made to source funds. -------------- Air Jamaica a Drag on Budget -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Any improvement in the country's fiscal deficit is highly dependent on offloading loss making public sector entities and in particular Air Jamaica (reftel E). In an earlier discussion, Minister of Finance advisor Dennis Chung, who has been appointed project manager for the divestment of Air Jamaica, told emboffs that the airline has accumulated debt of over USD 500 million. Chung said the airline remains in need of a healthy cash injection to stay afloat. The hemorrhaging could last a while longer, as McLaren stated that although the GOJ was committed to the divestment of the airline, it did not expect it until the end of the next fiscal year, or March 2009. Williams confirmed that the airline desperately needs cash. Williams added that although the GOJ provided cash in the past along with guaranteeing Air Jamaica's debt, the GOJ is now only committed to cash support in the amount of USD 30 million a year to pay statutory (taxes) contributions. -------------- Air China Interest in Air Jamaica -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The MOF officials confirmed reports that a number of parties were interested in the airline, with Air China showing real interest due to the strategic importance of having a foot print this side of the hemisphere. Any prospective purchaser must be cash rich; bring new tourist streams to the island; and, maintain the Air Jamaica brand. They also disclosed that the International Finance Corporation has agreed to assist with the divestment process. The MOF officials said Chinese investors expressed serious interest in investing in a large hotel on the North Coast specifically designed to cater to Chinese tourists. The aim is to build a tourism link between Chinese visitors and Chinese-Jamaicans. If Air China does buy Air Jamaica, it could also give them a path into the air cargo business for the region; this in turn could lead to Chinese investment in other infrastructure projects, e.g. improvements to the vital Palisadoes Road to the Kingston Airport or refurbishment of Vernham airfield in Clarendon parish (reftel F). -------------- Divestiture of Sugar Estates -------------- ¶9. (SBU) McLaren told emboffs that the sugar industry is also expected to be divested between June and December 2008, although emboffs have learned that a Brazilian company, Infinity, has been selected as the preferred bidder, and a deal could be sealed at an earlier date. Interestingly, the public transport system, while incurring losses of up to USD 14 million a year, has addressed its hemorrhaging by actively cutting cost. Chung, a board member of the entity, said that subsidies for public transport have to continue unless the GOJ was willing to raise fares, which is not feasible in the current highly inflationary environment. Chung said losses should decline as bus service becomes the transportation of choice and by extension a possible way to cut the oil bill and ease traffic congestion. -------------- Economic Growth and Budget -------------- ¶10. (SBU) When asked about criticisms from some analysts that the budget was over inflated, Chung stated that there was no problem with the size of budget, and criticisms along this line only KINGSTON 00000277 003 OF 003 demonstrated that past budgets had been merely accounting exercises as opposed to instruments of growth. When asked for their view on the growth prospects, Williams stated that the current budget was predicated on a growth target of three percent. He pointed out that this could be considered the most pro-growth budget in recent years, with capital expenditure increasing by over 50 percent. "The problem is whether Jamaica has the capacity to absorb so much capital expenditure at this time", Williams continued. JOHNSON