RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000750 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM RW SUBJECT: RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP REF: A. KIGALI 631 ¶B. KIGALI 323 ¶C. KIGALI 107 Classified By: CDA Cheryl Sim for Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (U) In this edition: - EU Monitoring Team Privately Confirms Faulty Election Results - Chamber of Deputies Members Sworn In, Elect Speaker, Two Deputy Speakers - Government Seizes Newspaper Edition at Border - Cabinet Directs Expedited Adoption of English as Language of Instruction EU Election Team Pieces Together 25 Percent of the Vote -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Prior to its end-of-September departure, the EU election monitoring team pieced together the results from just under 25 percent of the vote recorded at Rwanda's polling stations and polling centers in Rwanda's September 15 Chamber of Deputies elections. As indicated in reftel A, local and international observers recorded a stunning 95 percent-plus vote total for the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) at the nation's polling stations. This result was not reflected in the final results released by the National Election Commission (NEC),which accorded lower totals for the ruling party, and higher for two small parties, PL and PSD, which enabled them to pass the five percent threshold and remain in parliament. The NEC did not allow independent observers to monitor vote tallies above polling stations and centers on election day, rendering the counting process entirely non-transparent. ¶3. (C) The EU monitoring team painstakingly collected results from voting stations and centers in the four provinces over a two-week period from a variety of sources. These results show the ruling RPF obtaining 98.39 percent of the vote, the PL 0.61 percent, and the PSD 0.51 percent, and an independent candidate 0.48 percent. Said an EU "core team" member, well-versed in statistical analysis, who shared these unpublished results with pol/econ chief, "It is statistically impossible for the results to be what the NEC claimed they were (78.8 percent for the RPF, 13.1 percent for the PSD, 7.5 percent for the PL)." The EU observer team did not approach the NEC on these findings prior to its departure, reportedly due to the intervention of EU Ambassador David McRae, who generally advances a pro-GOR line. While some EU election monitoring officials in Brussels were supposedly unhappy with the extent of McRae,s ;interventions, it is unlikely the EU monitoring team,s final report will publicly acknowledge these findings. New Woman Speaker, One New Deputy Speaker, One Old -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) On October 6, President Kagame swore in the 80-member Chamber of Deputies, composed of 53 directly-elected members, 24 women representative chosen by women's councils, and three youth and disabled representatives. The new Chamber includes 45 women members (21 directly elected),or fifty-six percent of the seats. Kagame called upon the newly elected members to work together, noting Rwanda's great progress since the 1994 genocide. With regard to the majority status of women in the Chamber, Kagame said it was an admirable achievement, but added that having women in Parliament was not just about numbers. "We need action, results, more progress." ¶5. (SBU) The Deputies then proceeded to elect a new Speaker, Rose Mukantabana, one of the Deputies chosen by women's Rose Mukantabana, one of the Deputies chosen by women's councils, by a vote of 70 to 10. Little known in political circles, with no formal allegiance to any political party, Mukantabana has long experience in the local NGO community, including five years service as the executive secretary of Haguruka, a human rights organization that focuses on women's and children's rights. The Deputies also re-elected Denis Polisi (RPF),running unopposed, as the Deputy Speaker for policy matters, and, in a three-way race, chose former Health Minister Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo (PSD) as Deputy Speaker for finance and administration by a vote of 64 to 13. ¶6. (C) Comment. The election of the new Speaker appeared pre-ordained. Mukantabana's name began to circulate in the days following the September election, and her selection on October 6 appeared to be no surprise to any of the Deputies. Denis Polisi, a long-serving member, retains his position as Deputy Speaker, and will continue to exercise his close supervision of the Chamber's affairs. Ntawukuriryayo will bring a certain personal flair to a legislative body short on charismatic leadership. End comment. Edition Of "Umuco" Seized at Border -------------- ¶7. (C) Several local journalists told us that an edition of the newspaper "Umuco" was seized by Rwandan police and immigration authorities at the Rwanda/Uganda border post of Gatuna on October 9. (Note: several local publications use Ugandan printers for their newspapers, as they are cheaper than Rwandan enterprises). "Umuco" editor Leonard Rugambaga told us he was also summoned by the police and asked to explain why Umuco had resumed publication -- "Umuco" suspended publication in March when its Editor-in-Chief Bonaventure Bizumuremyi fled the country after publishing an issue comparing Kagame to Adolf Hitler (ref C). Rugambaga said he told the police that he had informed the Ministry of Information that he intended to resume publication, and was told there was no bar to doing so. Rugambaga said the police replied that he should "change the name of the newspaper." ¶8. (C) Comment. "Umuco" is one of the four local publications whose journalists are excluded from attending government events (ref C). This prohibition appears to have some flexibility, as Mission officers have seen at least one "banned" journalist attending government events around town. The Mission obtained a copy of the seized "Umuco" issue and found nothing terribly controversial in it. As Rwandan officials have long counseled offending local journalists to amend their editorial perspective, they may give "Umuco" another chance -- to change its coverage. End comment. Cabinet: Speed Up Use of English as Medium of Instruction -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) On October 8, the Rwandan Cabinet directed the Ministry of Education to expedite the adoption of English as the medium of instruction in all publicly-funded primary, secondary and tertiary schools. The Cabinet also directed the Ministry of Public Service and Labor to develop a program to help public servants be "competitive" in English, starting with senior civil servants. In the days following this Cabinet decision, President Kagame and other officials made remarks in support of this decision. Kagame on several occasions spoke of Rwanda's need to "prioritize" languages, to be more competitive in both the East African Community and in the world as a whole. Better to use a language that is widely spoken, he said, as Rwanda looks for business opportunities in many countries. ¶10. (SBU) Comment. This decision has been a long time in coming, according to several observers of Rwanda's educational scene. It will not happen overnight, as the clear majority of Rwanda's schools still teach in French rather than English. The timing of the announcement was interesting, coming as it did one week before the Francophone Summit in Quebec (attended by Prime Minister Makuza and Cabinet Affairs Minister Murigande) -- Rwanda taking another opportunity to tweak French noses? End comment. SIM