"CONTROLLED DEMOCRACY" - THE RULING RPF DOMINATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000624 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM RW SUBJECT: "CONTROLLED DEMOCRACY" - THE RULING RPF DOMINATES THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN REF: KIGALI 521 Classified By: CDA Cheryl J. Sim for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. President Paul Kagame's Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has dominated the Chamber of Deputies election campaign, with several prQdural assists from the National Electoral CommissiQ The RPF has far surpassed the efforts of the two small parties also contesting thQelection -- the Liberal Party (PL) and Social Democratic Party (PSD) -- the RPF mounting a large media campaign and extensive door-to-door canvassing of votes. Scattered reports continue of local officials interfering with PL and PSD meetings and rallies. Of two local human rights organizations that produced critical reports on the 2003 national elections, one, the Great Lakes Human Rights League (LDGL),has observers in the field, while LIPRODHOR has been denied permission to observe. Although a sizable RPF victory does not appear to be in doubt, the two small parties do hope to increase their vote totals and parliamentary representation. End summary. ¶2. (C) On September 15-17 Rwanda will elect 80 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 53 seats by direct election on the 15th, 24 seats reserved for women in non-partisan indirect elections on the 16th, and 3 disabled and youth seats on the 17th. The real contest is for the 53 directly-elected seats, in a battle between the RPF (and six minuscule coalition parties) and the PL and PSD, each of whom gained just over ten percent of the vote in 2003. (Note: the 24 women's seats are elected by women's councils, which are heavily populated with RPF sympathizers -- these 24 seats constitute a safe bank of seats for the RPF. End note). The RPF has dominated the two-week campaign season, holding large rallies around the country, mounting an extensive door-to-door canvassing of votes, and swamping the airwaves with large media buys. The PSD and PL have told us they have campaign budgets of approximately 50 to 60 million Rwandan francs (about USD 110,000),while the RPF has a campaign budget of at least 600 to 700 million francs -- more than ten times the amount of the other parties. There has been a wide disparity of coverage in both the public and private media. Government-controlled radio, television and newspapers are mainly covering the RPF, while private radio stations are carrying 60 RPF-paid campaign spots a day, compared to one or 
two a day for the PSD and PL. Long-term monitors of the European Union, the Civil Society Platform (Platform) and LDGL have found PL and PSD weakly organized in the countryside ("almost invisible in many places"),where 85 percent of Rwandans live. There are continuing scattered reports of local officials interfering with PL and PSD rallies and meetings: both have found meeting halls suddenly rented to other organizations, for example, disrupting their campaign schedules. There are also reports of one or two brief arrests of PSD campaign workers, and some intimidation of PL and PSD supporters by RPF members. ¶3. (C) The National Electoral Commission has by most accounts done an adequate job of preparing for the elections, both in terms of the logistics and training of its own large temporary staff (to man the 15,000 polling stations),and in reaching out to voters in education campaigns -- although reaching out to voters in education campaigns -- although there are reports of RPF proselytizing at NEC voter education meetings. However, the NEC issued two rulings that obstruct opposition parties' efforts to attract voters and offer alternatives. First, the NEC has ruled that no campaign literature may be distributed in the streets, but only in campaign meetings, meetings which must be announced to local authorities. NEC officials explained to diplomats that this was done to keep political parties from "bothering" citizens. This while the RPF has reportedly been dropping campaign literature by helicopter in the countryside (by one account, this ceased after several days). Secondly, the NEC has ruled that no party or its representatives may criticize other parties, effectively reducing campaign rallies and messages to anodyne announcements of good intentions. The PSD reportedly has in the past several days taken to staging meetings and rallies at short notice, to avoid cancellations and petty interference from local government officials. ¶4. (C) Three local NGOs sought accreditation for the elections -- the Civil Society Platform (Platform),LDGL, and LIPRODHOR. With serious doubts expressed among donors about the independence of the Platform (reftel),which appears to have several senior officers with close ties to the government and RPF, donors sought to also channel resources to LDGL and LIPRODHOR. After much administrative wrangling, LDGL did receive accreditation for its observers and they are in the field. However, the NEC denied LIPRODHOR's application to observe the elections outside the Platform, and the Platform subsequently declined to accept LIPRODHOR's monitors, ostensibly for budgetary reasons. ¶5. (C) Comment. When small and resource-poor political parties are denied the right to distribute their pamphlets in the streets, the least expensive means of putting one's message across, while the ruling party is blanketing the countryside with radio messages, dropping leaflets from helicopters, and going door-to-door to drum up votes, it is not exactly a level playing field. The prohibition on criticism of opposing parties also plays into the hands of the RPF's core message of unity and national purpose -- we are all in this together, so no need for dissenting voices. The two small parties contesting the elections have no real hopes of winning the election, but they do hope to increase their vote totals and their number of Deputies in Parliament. The U.S. Embassy and other observer missions will monitor the actual voting on September 15. End comment. SIM