CABINET AFFAIRS MINISTER PAGAN AMUM SAYS HE WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000954

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: CABINET AFFAIRS MINISTER PAGAN AMUM SAYS HE WILL
LEAVE POST WITHIN WEEKS

REF: A. KHARTOUM 944

B. KHARTOUM 941

Classified By: CDA Alberto M.Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: SPLM Secretary General and current GNU
Minister of Cabinet Affairs Pagan Amum told CDA June 25 that
he will leave his post as Cabinet Minister "within two
weeks." Lam Akol is the candidate most likely to replace
him, according to Amum, for lack of other good options in the
SPLM. Amum believes the NCP will drag out final resolution
of Abyei and broader border demarcation until 2011, to "buy
time" and delay movement toward secession in order to "keep
the South under control and exploit oil resources." Amum
believes the NCP will implement the June 8 Abyei agreement,
however, and said that SE Williamson's sudden departure from
Khartoum during negotiations likely scared the NCP into
signing. Amum said the SPLM is "healthier and more united"
following the SPLM convention and that his relations with
Chairman Salva Kiir have improved. Amum urged tangible US
support for an alliance against the NCP in national
elections. End summary.


2. (C) At the end of a relaxed meeting with CDA Fernandez
discussing the latest developments in Abyei and CPA
implementation, Minister of Cabinet Affairs Pagan Amum
casually announced, almost as an afterthought, that he plans
to leave his post in the GNU "within two weeks" and plans to
focus on his role in the SPLM. Amum did not provide a
specific reason for his departure, but said he had discussed
the decision at length with SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir. (Note:
All of the SPLM officials in Khartoum complain that they
would rather not be here due to the difficulty of working
with the regime. Recently Amum has been even more outspoken
than normal in Khartoum, attending a rally against press
censorship and criticizing the regime heavily as corrupt and
a failure - Ref A. End note.) Amum noted that there are few
options for senior SPLM figures who could take his place and
said that Kiir approached Nhial Deng to ask if he would take
the position, and Deng reportedly refused. Amum said Lam
Akol is the candidate most likely to replace him due the lack
of options and the fact that the candidate must be of a
certain political "weight." He noted that Lam has improved
his relationship with Kiir recently but is not trusted by
anyone in the SPLM leadership, "he thinks the NCP will win in
the end and he acts accordingly."


3. (C) Amum said that despite the recent agreement on Abyei,
which the regime only signed due to the intense pressure of
the Omdurman attack, SE Williamson's sudden departure and the
simultaneous UNSC visit, the NCP has made a strategic
decision not to make progress on border demarcation or Abyei.
The NCP's objective is to "create a situation that will
force the SPLM to consider postponing the referendum," said
Amum. Amum said the NCP's "plan A" is to fix the elections
and then write the rules for the referendum with a new
alignment of political forces in Khartoum. Plan B is simply
to destabilize the South by weakening the SPLM and by
delaying progress on CPA requirements such as border
demarcation. Amum described a scenario in which the NCP
continues to sign agreement after agreement, partially
implementing each one to demonstrate progress, but endlessly
negotiating and holding onto power for "at least another 20
years." Amum observed that the NCP's primary objective is to
hold onto power, which requires access to the oil wealth in
the South. In the short term, Amum believes that the NCP
will implement most aspects of the June 8 Abyei agreement.
Amum predicted that the SAF 31st brigade will eventually
leave "with some delay" if enough pressure is applied by the
international community.


4. (C) In response to CDA's question regarding how the US can
continue to help the SPLM, and what Amum thought the US
should be focusing on, Amum provided several concrete
proposals. First, he said the US must focus on Abyei and
"drag" the NCP out of its position. He observed that
pressure by SE Williamson worked to push the NCP toward
agreement on Abyei. "Tell the NCP that relations can improve
if the roadmap is implemented," and if we can solve Abyei,
the NCP will realize that the best plan is to implement the
accords. He counseled a combination of tough pressure with a
willingness to deal, "they have to believe that there is a
possible benefit for them in talking to you." Amum
highlighted demarcation of the Abyei border as well as the
rest of the North-South border as an urgent priority.
Second, Amum said the US must work for a serious peace

KHARTOUM 00000954 002 OF 002


process in Darfur. On the prospects for progress in Darfur,
Amum said there is a possibility of an agreement between the
NCP and JEM "because after a major battle both parties feel
encouraged to talk." He noted that the lesson of the CPA is
that the strong party gets an agreement. Third, Amum urged
that the US support "a coalition of parties against the NCP."
Amum said there is great danger if the NCP mandate is
strengthened through elections. Referring to the NCP, Amum
said "there is a problem with people who think they are
messengers of God, touched by the Holy Ghost - this brings an
arrogance of power." CDA noted that there is nothing worse
than a dictatorship that comes to power or retains power
through an internationally respected electoral process.


5. (C) As in every meeting with him, the mercurial and
apocalyptic Amum predicted or used the word "war" at least
half a dozen times. In reference to the recent press
conference decrying the lack of press freedoms that he
attended with PCP leader (and former NIF ringleader) Hassan
al Turabi (ref A),Amum said that "taking away press freedoms
is the beginning of war." Amum observed that the regime is
more nervous than ever, not just because of the JEM attack on
Omdurman, but because of the regime's fear of losing power
and to ensure that it gets the result it wants in the
elections. CDA observed that the regime operates as if there
were a state of emergency in all but name, with which Amum
strongly agreed. "It's a constant undeclared state of
emergency, and the level of press freedoms has gotten worse
over time," said Amum. He noted that in 2005 following the
signing of the CPA there were more freedoms, but starting in
2007 the regime started to crack down, and in 2008 the regime
has begun to "put a lid" on all newspapers.


6. (C) Comment: Amum's announcement that he will leave the
GNU does not surprise us, since all of the senior SPLM
figures in the GNU complain about the difficulty of working
with the NCP regime and often request that Chairman Kiir
allow them to return to the South. Foreign Minister Alor
also wants to leave his post, but told CDA Fernandez that
Kiir will not allow him to leave Khartoum (Ref B). Amum's
statement that he will depart his GNU post does remind us
somewhat of his claims at the SPLM convention that he would
leave his position as SPLM SG in order to spend time in the
US, only to reverse course following an outpouring of support
at the convention and a presumed renegotiation of his role
with Kiir - which probably left Amum in a slightly stronger
position vis-a-vis Chairman Kiir than previously. However,
in this case there is no apparent power play and it is in
fact likely that Amum would prefer to be solely Secretary
General where he can play a stronger role in the party in the
lead-up to elections. However the SPLM loses much by
allowing SPLM renegade Lam Akol to take over for Amum in
Khartoum. It will keep the smarmy Akol busy but the Cabinet
Affairs Minister has a unique vantage point from which to
view (and on occasion, even as the CPA junior partner, to
influence GNU policy) and having a strong SPLM insider such
as Amum in the position instead of an NCP sympathizer such as
Akol added much to the SPLM's influence in Khartoum. As
always, the SPLM is spread thin between Juba and Khartoum,
with few senior figures who can take on the most senior
roles. Perhaps sensing that the change is coming, senior NCP
officials like Dr. Nafie and Mustafa Othman Ismail have
called for Pagan's removal after his harsh criticism of a
government of which he is still part. End comment.
FERNANDEZ