GNU STATE MINISTER DECLARES RE-ESTABLISHED SPLM-NCP

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000094 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: GNU STATE MINISTER DECLARES RE-ESTABLISHED SPLM-NCP RELATIONSHIP A "NEW PAGE" REF: (A) KHARTOUM 075 (B) KHARTOUM 027 (C) KHARTOUM 015 ¶1. (SBU) On 22 January, CDA Fernandez called on newly appointed Minister of State for the Presidency, Joseph Lual. Minister Lual, an SPLM member from the Dinka tribe and former state administrator for Bahr el Ghazal, was brought into the government when the SPLM ended its boycott of the GNU earlier this month. Describing the re-established SPLM-NCP cooperation as the opening of a "new page" for the two parties, he explained that the parties are jointly working to resolve critical issues such as the Abyei border dispute. Lual also worked for many years with ICRC and WFP in the South and in Sudanese refugee camps and was resident in Liberia during some of the worst years of the violence there. ¶2. (SBU) After congratulating the new minister on his appointment and asking him about the renewed SPLM-NCP cooperation, the CDA raised the issue of Misseriya-SPLM skirmishes in Southern Kordofan (refs B and C). Lual commended the leadership of President Al-Bashir in guiding the Joint Defense Board (JDB) to resolve the skirmishes, which he said "are being taken care of." ¶3. (SBU) The CDA asked Lual about a USD 11 million shortfall in census funding that the GNU verbally promised to release in 2008. Lual defended the government by saying that the 2008 budget was approved late last month and that the Minister of Finance is working on the details of financial disbursement. Lual admitted that if the GNU does not release the remaining census funds, it could be a "major stumbling block" to the census process but expected the shortfall would be met. [NOTE: The national census is set to take place April 15-30. END NOTE.] ¶4. (SBU) Lual declined to comment on the rumor that the British UNAMID Chief of Staff would be dismissed by the GNU. When asked by the CDA if the two parties consulted on such matters, Lual said that consultation "may be" taking place. CDA Fernandez warned that such a step would be very unfortunate. On the US-Sudanese relationship, Lual stated that the GNU partners agreed that the relationship should be improved, but he had no answer for how long it would take. The CDA responded by stating that newly appointed US Special Envoy to Sudan, Ambassador Richard Williamson, will likely make his first visit to Sudan in his official position in February and will be looking to hear the GNU's views on ways to improve the relationship. ¶5. (SBU) Lual concluded by asserting that the NCP-SPLM will not return to war, but rather will fight their battles through verbal negotiation. He likened the CPA to the Ten Commandments, as far as South Sudanese are concerned, and asked the CDA for the USG's help in safeguarding and implementing the agreement. The CDA assured Lual that the USG is always willing to listen and to help with such issues and highlighted the USG's ongoing commitment to Sudan by pointing out that the USG is the largest bilateral donor in the country. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Lual spoke broadly and cautiously in his discussions and lent little valuable insight on critical issues. Although he claimed that the NCP-SPLM relationship has gotten off to solid "new" start, we have seen signs that grave mistrust between the two parties still exists, especially on issues such as Abyei, the census, and the 2009 national elections (ref A). Lual's discretion may be laudable but he faces tremendous challenges. The Minister of State for the Presidency is in a key position to implement policies decided by Sudan's three-man presidency (Al-Bashir, FVP Kiir, VP Taha) but will have to be an extraordinarily subtle and dogged bureaucratic player not to be deceived by experienced NCP insiders. END COMMENT. FERNANDEZ