WHERE IN THE WORLD IS MINNI? (AND OTHER SIGNS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000932 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, AF/SE WILLIAMSON, AF/C, NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM SU SUBJECT: WHERE IN THE WORLD IS MINNI? (AND OTHER SIGNS OF MINNAWI'S POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GOS) REF: KHARTOUM 902 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Rumors have circulated that the leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement, Minni Minnawi, traveled to Chad, withdrew from the Darfur Peace Agreement, and instructed his field commanders to prepare for war. On June 23, Minnawi publicly dispelled his rumored travel to Chad (saying he was in the field in North Darfur,) but cautioned that he will not return to Khartoum in the near future "as there is nothing for me there." Minnawi also requested that CDA Fernandez travel to undisclosed geocoordinates in rural Darfur for a private "face to face meeting, as I can't say everything over the phone." Also on June 23, a SLM/MM representative told POLOFF that since late 2007, Minnawi has been actively planning to withdraw from the Government of Sudan. END SUMMARY. MINNI TRAVELED TO CHAD? - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On June 20, rumors starting circulating that Minnawi traveled to Chad. Some of the rumors (discussed on popular Sudanese websites and mentioned in the Sudanese press) even stated that Minnawi traveled to Ndjamena for meetings with President Deby and to eastern Chad for coordination with JEM's Khalil Ibrahim. POLOFF discussed the rumored traveled with multiple senior SLM/MM leaders, none of which were able to either confirm or deny the travel. Several of these leaders admitted that it was not unlikely that Minnawi would make the trip. Minnawi, normally available by cell or satellite phone, could not be reached during the same period (CDA Fernandez spoke to Minnawi on June 14 and he was in North Darfur, in Dar Zaghawa, near the Chadian border, at the time). ¶3. (SBU) On June 23, emboff discussed the rumor with Suliman Jamous of SLM/Unity in London. Jamous asserted that Minnawi traveled to Ndjamena the night of June 22, meeting with Khalil Ibrahim of JEM and Abdulla Yaiya of SLM/Unity. According to Jamous, Minnawi admitted that he had fallen into a trap (by signing the Darfur Peace Agreement) and that he was seeking a way of withdrawing from the Government of Sudan (GOS). Jamous added that Minnawi negotiated with former SLM comrades Yahiya and Ibrahim on conditions for his withdrawal from the Government, something they were not willing to discuss until Minnawi actually withdraws from the GOS. ¶4. (C) On June 23, after days of unsuccessfully calling, Minnawi answered his satellite phone, stating that he had been in Kamwa in North Darfur. Minnawi denied traveling to Chad, but cautioned, "I will not be returning to Khartoum anytime soon, as there is nothing for me there." POLOFF stated that he had been in contact with senior SLM/MM leaders during the last several days, to which Minnawi responded, "this was the right thing to do, but stay away from Ar-Raya Mahmoud Juma (SLM Deputy Chairman) and Mustafa Tirab (SLM General Secretary)." Minnawi added that the Darfur Peace Agreement "had not done anything" for him and requested that CDA Fernandez travel to geocordinates provided later in rural North Darfur "for a private face to face meeting, as I can't say everything over the phone." POLOFF passed the phone to CDA Fernandez and Minnawi again requested a private meeting in the field. CDA intends to travel to Darfur within the next few days and intends to be in the countryside at some point but arranging such a meeting will be difficult because both UNAMID and GOS approval will be needed. "WE'VE BEEN PREPARING TO WITHDRAW" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Earlier on June 23, Bushara Hassan, the SLM/MM Chief of Capacity Building and Political Transformation, told poloff that although he could not confirm Minnawi's trip to Chad, "he was supposed to be there." Hassan stated that Minnawi has been planning a withdrawal from the GoS since late 2007. Hassan stated that SLM/MM postponed this move, as he believed that a February 2008 trip to Washington would yield more concrete results for his movement. Hassan said that Minnawi has focused the last month on reorganizing his field commanders and regaining their support. "Many of our field commanders have looked at the success of the JEM attack, and they are frustrated that they are sitting there wanting to do something," stated Hassan. Hassan also reported that Minni was able to attain and distribute a number of additional weapons to his field commanders in the last several weeks. Hassan stated, "Once we go back to the field, we need to know what the U.S. wants from us." POLOFF explained the U.S. desires to see peaceful democratic KHARTOUM 00000932 002 OF 002 transformation in Sudan, to which Hassan replied, "this can't happen right now - we've tried and things have moved too slowly." He added "As soon as we are out of the DPA, there will be chaos in Darfur, but we will be able to make more progress that way." Hassan predicted that the CPA and the South will suffer as a result of SLM/MM's withdrawal from the government, stating, "We realize that we will put them (the Southerners) in harm, but we need them too and we realize we cannot lead the whole country." ¶6. (C) Hassan stated Minnawi may have secretly traveled to Chad, because if he would have done so in the open, "he would have put all of us in Khartoum in danger." He said that there are leaders in SLM/MM who have already started to discuss the logistics of moving senior SLM/MM officials in Khartoum to the field and outside of Sudan. "It won't happen all of a sudden," stated Hassan "but we will gradually all take different routes to the south, to the West, to neighboring countries, and to Europe." Hassan stated that at 17:00 on June 23 there will be a meeting at SLM headquarters in Omdurman, but cautioned that "even in this meeting we will not be able to talk openly, as there are some of our people in the movement who have been bought out by the government and will betray us." Hassan stated that there is a general excitement in the SLM and throughout all of Darfur about the possibility of returning to the fight. Hassan ended the meeting stating, "I think you will see that we are going to be very busy in the next month." COMMENT - - - - - ¶7. (C) Whether or not Minnawi traveled to Chad is somewhat irrelevant, as he has now returned to the field to focus on his commanders, and appears to be seriously entertaining his military options. At the very least, his presence in the field keeps additional commanders from defecting to groups like JEM. His refusal to return to Khartoum and his call for a private meeting with the CDA at an undisclosed location in rural Darfur are other signs that something is in the works - most likely his impending withdrawal from the Government (something that we have previously reported, reftel.) The implications of Minnawi's withdrawal from the GoS can hardly be over-exaggerated. Minnawi still has one of the largest (if not the largest) military force of all rebel groups in Darfur, and his rumored coordination with other Zaghawa rebels could add a truly lethal threat to the GoS. Having watched several of his commanders defect over the last year, and calculating correctly that Khartoum believes it has sidelined Minnawi and only needs to deal with rebels in the field (while neglecting the DPA),it is very hard indeed to question Minnawi's presumptive decision from a strategic perspective. It is also possible that Minnawi has taken a page from the SPLM play book and is merely seeking to pressure the regime to implement the DPA or extract other concessions at a time that some perceive the NCP regime as overstretched. Despite Mini's disavowal, two days running, in the local media of any intention to resume the armed struggle, the NCP also suspects that something is up with Minnawi. Since they have marginalized him, not implemented the DPA and persecuted Zaghawa, they have no one but themselves to blame if indeed he does jump back into the fray. We will continue to closely watch these potentially volatile developments while strongly cautioning SLM-MM leadership to look before they leap. FERNANDEZ