RULING PARTY STILL POSITIVE ON US-SUDAN RELATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000894

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG AND AF/C
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY STILL POSITIVE ON US-SUDAN RELATIONS

REF: KHARTOUM 892

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) MFA U/S and National Congress Party (NCP) insider
Mutriff Siddiq told CDA Fernandez June 15 that Sudan remains
positive about the prospects for improved US-Sudan relations
despite SE Williamson's departure from Khartoum without
reaching an agreement. Siddiq said the GOS plans to follow
through on commitments discussed with the American delegation
regarding humanitarian access in Darfur and UNAMID deployment
even in the absence of an actual agreement, though the
bilateral items will be tabled for now "which is in the
interests of your embassy." Siddiq was positive even
regarding the June 8 Abyei agreement, noting that SE
Williamson had an impact on the ultimate agreement that was
reached between the NCP and the SPLM following his departure,
and that the agreement "incorporated the spirit of the talks
with the Americans." CDA urged that the GOS actually
implement the Abyei agreement in full and also cease support
for Chadian rebels, in the interests of facilitating possible
future talks.


2. (C) Siddiq said that President Bashir himself remains
interested in continued talks with the US. "Although time
may not allow you to make further progress," observed Siddiq,
"we remain open to further talks." Siddiq said the GOS will
facilitate UNAMID deployment "because it benefits us as well,
not just the Americans." The Nepalese and Thai troops will
be deployed as per the discussions with the Americans.
Siddiq said he would meet with JSR Adada June 16 to discuss
deployment issues. Siddiq concluded that "we are in a good
position with the US - we are hopeful but realistic."


3. (C) CDA inquired about the statements made by the Sudanese
PermRep to the UN that American companies would no longer be
allowed to operate in Darfur. Siddiq said the Sudanese
Ambassador did not have authorization to make these remarks,
but acknowledged that absent a formal agreement, in principle
American companies should not be allowed to operate in Darfur
until US sanctions against Sudan are removed. CDA Fernandez
urged caution, noting that this would limit UNAMID's ability
to operate effectively and that Sudan would be rightly blamed
for this. Siddiq said that in the long run Sudan has no
problem with US companies in Darfur or anywhere else in Sudan
if the bilateral relationship improves, "we have agreed in
principle with Williamson about this."


4. (C) In response to a request from the CDA, Siddiq also
promised to follow up on the visas for the remaining five US
military officers assigned to UNAMID. He expected that these
would be forthcoming relatively soon. UNAMID had only
recently issued Note Verbales to the Sudanese MFA requesting
visas.


5. (C) Siddiq, who was a key participant in talks with SE
Williamson, said that "we were really surprised" when
Williamson walked out of talks since "we actually had an
agreement" with the Americans on Darfur and on the bilateral
relationship. He added that the Sudanese did not believe that
tension over Abyei was the sole reason for the current
suspension of further dialogue, noting that they suspected
that internal bickering within the Bush Administration may
have played a role. "Perhaps they think it would hurt them
politically," he asked. Siddiq wondered whether there was
enough time "on the American side' to arrive at a
comprehensive agreement with Sudan, but quickly added "when
you are ready. we will be ready at any point and will welcome
an early resumption." CDA Fernandez noted that among the
factors that will certainly influence future opportunities
for dialogue will be the actual implementation of a June 8
SPLM-NCP agreement on Abyei and the outcome of the recent
"troubling rebel offensive" in Eastern Chad. "This is nothing
new to you," CDA noted, "we've warned you about events in
Chad before." On Aryei, Siddiq added thqt "rom%tjijg gogd
maY bm% out`of|he"vanLeoseil Oaq.m& oNled\jIw`agQecMm|QqlrePi oad~|el%QQ
6.(G*8U)d9soluduQla/n Qj&0ijQwTzimqf_o.QE@*?weagQx['mwQT||1QxQ+|A4Q s pro-Sudanese" but
when they heard the same things from UNAMID officers in the

KHARTOUM 00000894 002 OF 002


field, they finally understood. He said that the PermReps
were so badly informed that one asked for the Sudanese to
give permission to land AN-124 aircraft in Darfur, unaware
that Sudan does not oppose this but that only one airport in
Sudan - Khartoum - can currently support the world's largest
aircraft. He recalled a senior DPKO official boasting that
DPKO would cover up its own deficiencies by blaming Sudan.


7. (C) Comment: It was quite clear from this meeting that the
GOS is eager to resume formal bilateral talks with the US.
Our impression is that the GOS will likely continue to be on
its best behavior - "best" being a relative term for a mostly
incorrigible actor like Sudan - in the coming weeks in hopes
of facilitating their continuation. For now, the regime
appears to have made a cold-blooded calculation that improved
relations with the West in general and the US in particular
are in its strategic interests. Siddiq was at pains to point
out that Sudan did not condemn or criticize SE Williamson's
walkout even though some in the local press had tried to spin
Dr. Nafie's remarks that way. This Sudanese self-interested
calculation could change quickly if the regime feels cornered
with additional sanctions or ICC indictments, though even the
indictments could well be mitigated depending on how they are
presented. The key with the NCP is always the right
combination of positive and negative reinforcement.
FERNANDEZ