NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESSES SUDANESE PRESIDENCY TO TABLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000830 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, S/E WILLIAMSON, DRL DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI UNSC SU SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESSES SUDANESE PRESIDENCY TO TABLE LONG-DELAYED ELECTIONS BILL REF: (A) KHARTOUM 291 (B) KHARTOUM 455 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On 28 May, the National Assembly adopted a resolution requesting that the Presidency table the long-delayed electoral bill. The resolution could lead to one of two alternatives - either the Presidency will feel compelled to resolve the outstanding issues on the law itself or it will submit the disputed bill to Parliament for the Assembly's consideration. The bill originally was sent to the Presidency to resolve differences between the NCP and SPLM on key provisions. If the bill is submitted to the Parliament still without NCP-SPLM agreement, SPLM and other opposition parties fear that an NCP-version of the law will be passed by a simple NCP parliamentary majority. Such an outcome will result in a heated and tumultuous start to Sudan's electoral process. End Summary. -------------- -------------- NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ANXIOUS TO DEBATE ELECTORAL BILL -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) In the first show of determination by politicians to move on the electoral bill, the National Assembly passed a resolution on 28 May calling on the Presidency to table the bill. The National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) had submitted the severely overdue bill to the Presidency in March 2008 to resolve the final three issues on which high-level NCP and SPLM officials could not agree (ref a). Although the hope was that the Presidency could resolve these issues, it has not acted on the bill since receiving it. ¶3. (SBU) According to NCRC Co-Chair Abdulla Idris, the Sudan Consortium meeting in Oslo sparked party interest in the elections, hence the current movement in Parliament whereby various factions are "jockeying" for position to move the bill to parliamentary debate. "You must read between the lines," Idris told Poloff on 29 May. Political parties want to hold elections on time; however the SPLM would like issues such as Abyei and border demarcation to be resolved first, he claimed. Idris hinted that it is the NCP that is pushing the Presidency to table the elections bill. ¶4. (SBU) Idris surmised that the Parliamentary resolution will result in one of two actions: either the Presidency will resolve the three remaining issues under pressure from Parliament, or Parliament will "seize the draft bill and deliberate on it." The SPLM and the Communist Party in particular fear that if the Presidency allows the Parliament to deliberate, the NCP will bulldoze its preferred draft through using its simple majority. Idris noted that such an action would be the start of a "rocky road" to next year's elections. "At minimum, to hold a fair election there must be acceptance of the electoral law by major parties such as the NCP, the SPLM, and Umma," he said. ¶5. (U) Idris warned that if the Presidency does not submit the draft bill to the Parliament by 15 June, an extraordinary session in July will have to be called to debate the bill. Although the draft electoral law has been a long time in coming, Idris believes that the National Assembly's resolution will create a "new development" on the law in the coming ten days. GNU Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, Joseph Ukel, publicly announced that the bill could be tabled at the Council of Ministers meeting in Khartoum the week of 1 June. -------------- NCP AND UMMA SEE EYE-TO-EYE ON ELECTORAL BILL -------------- ¶6. (U) On 20 May, NCP and the National Umma Party, headed by former Prime Minister Al Sadig Al-Madhi, signed the "National Reconciliation Agreement." In it, the two parties agree on the final three points of the electoral law. According to Idris, Umma conceded to a 60 percent first-past-the-post/40 percent proportional voting system. NCP agreed to list women candidates for national and state assemblies on a party list, rather than a stand-alone women's list. Furthermore, NCP and Umma agreed that the proportional vote should take place at the national level using a national-level list, rather than at a state level using state-level lists. Umma is only one of numerous parties that the NCP has been courting on its proposed version of the electoral bill. Its highly publicized agreement with the Umma Party represents the NCP's first victory in co-opting an opposition party to accept its preferred electoral-law provisions. (Comment: The SPLM has indicated it will not accept a 60/40 proportional voting system, although it would compromise on a 55/45 level, and it wants proportional voting to be on a state rather than national level. If the electoral law is pushed through Parliament at the 60/40 percent proportional voting at a national KHARTOUM 00000830 002 OF 002 level over their objections, it is quite likely the SPLM would boycott the elections altogether.) -------------- RAMPING UP TO DRAFT THE REFERENDUM BILL -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Last week, NCRC members met for the first time to discuss drafting the bills on the 2011 referendum on independence for Abyei and Southern Sudan. Idris remarked that the body is "quietly collecting data" on case studies in order to draft the bill, noting that with the priority for movement on the electoral bill and 2009 elections, now is not the right time to publicly launch a referendum-drafting campaign. Idris added that important issues must be worked out before the bills are drafted, such as border demarcation and defining who is a Southerner. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Parliamentary resolution requesting that the Presidency deliver movement on the electoral bill is the first sign that politicians are taking charge of the electoral process. Many hoped that the Presidency would be able to resolve the final issues of the law expeditiously. To the contrary, the Presidency paid little attention to the bill and two and a half months have been lost. If the bill is tabled and ratified in the coming few weeks and a National Electoral Commission is named, seated, and funded at a rapid-fire pace soon thereafter, UNMIS officials predict it would be possible, although still challenging, to hold voter registration and publish voter lists during the 2009 dry season (January-March) and hold the first round of elections in December of that year. However, if the NCP and its allies steamroll through Parliament an election bill that is seriously opposed by the SPLM and its allies, the future of the elections will be in serious doubt. POWERS