SPLM ANGER FOLLOWING MAY 20 BATTLE IN ABYEI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000787 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF EAID MOPS KPKO SU SUBJECT: SPLM ANGER FOLLOWING MAY 20 BATTLE IN ABYEI REFS: A. KHARTOUM 782 ¶B. KHARTOUM 774 ¶C. KHARTOUM 772 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The SPLM remains divided over Kiir's decision to limit SPLA forces from Abyei, and senior leadership, including Foreign Minister Deng Alor, are among a faction favoring a more aggressive response. Outrage over SAF conduct intensified following May 19 SAF interference with the reentry of SPLA JIU forces into the town and significant SPLA units, backed by armor, are still dug in nearby. SPLM Political Bureau meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 22 to decide the SPLM's "final course of action on Darfur, Abyei, and the NCP/SPLM partnership. Calls for international action continue. END SUMMARY. -------------- SPLA DUG IN, WITH TANKS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) SPLA JIU and regular SPLA forces under the command of MG Piang have now fortified defensive positions south of the town, and possibly North of the Kiir River. Piang is not a member of the Abyei JIU, however, he was a member of the joint patrol conducting by the Joint Defense Board and AJMC patrol that sustained direct fire from SAF forces on May 17. ConGen sources report that elements from the SPLA's 3rd and 7th Divisions have been deployed south and east of Abyei since May 16. The SPLA established an early warning force on the northern side of the Kiir River and placed a flanking force south of the river which observers believe is to be used to maintain positive control of strategic points along the river. SPLA MG Piang (brother of GOSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Bing Deng) commands the 7TH Division and, like Luka, is a local Ngok Dinka from Abyei descended from a famed local chief. -------------- EMBITTERED FONMIN READY FOR BATTLE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) ConGen staff discussed with GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor shortly following Al Jazeera's initial reports that fighting had resumed. A fuming Alor, in the midst of directing staff to get additional updates, claimed unprovoked SAF reinforcements had attacked SPLA JIU forces along the Kiir river. Following the repulse of the SAF attack, SPLA units mortared the SAF garrison in Abyei town. Deng asserted this was a targeted SPLA attack against a known SAF target conducted so as to minimize collateral damage and prevent further SAF incursions out of Abyei town. "Can you imagine if the SAF had crossed the river into the area now filled with the displaced? It would have been disastrous." -------------- ALOR: NO JOINT TALKS WITH WILLIAMSON -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Pressed on whether Kiir's order for restraint had been reversed, Alor said no, but debated why it should stand in the face of SAF belligerence. "For years the NCP and SAF do things like this on Abyei and no one does anything. We should just move the SPLA in now and accept the risk should there be blame," he argued. CG staff countered that the SPLM needed to remain vigilant in its actions, and not make any moves that would complicate U.S. efforts to assist in expediting a comprehensive solution for Abyei. ¶5. (SBU) Alor stated there was no possibility that the SPLM would join the NCP at the table. "We will meet America one-on-one, but there is no more space for compromise in the partnership." In tones that evoked the Fall 2007 SPLM ministerial-level boycott of the GNU, Alor noted that the SPLM will have its inaugural post-Convention Political Bureau meeting on May 22 to determine a path on Abyei and "fine-tune our position on Darfur." (NOTE: Alor's comments on the Special Envoy's visit do not match those of GOSS Presidential Affairs Minister Luka Biong Deng. Undoubtedly, this will have to be discussed further among Kiir's inner circle as Abyei continues to unfold. END NOTE.) There is no consensus party position right now on dialogue with the NCP. -------------- A DIVIDED SPLM -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Alor said that Kiir's decision to restrain the SPLA is dividing the party, and delegates at SPLM National Convention point out that while the convention was delayed for events in Omdurman, Kiir has not taken similar steps in Abyei's wake. CG staff emphasized USG understanding with Kiir's difficult position, and requested that the SPLM closely coordinate with the USG as KHARTOUM 00000787 002 OF 002 decisions are made over the coming days. Alor was decidedly non-committal, allowing that while space for dialogue existed at the political level, "we won't waste time talking about military issues, we will just take action." Despite this, the Foreign Minister was nonetheless grateful for the American audience, saying he had just complained to the UK Ambassador that "only America was active on Abyei through sanctions and like." Returning to the subject of Williamson's visit, Alor called U.S. assistance in restraining SAF reinforcements, and making the case to Khartoum that it should not regard the River Kiir as a buffer zone between combatants, but Abyei town itself. "The CPA clearly states there are to be no forces in Abyei town but the Joint Integrated Units," he said. -------------- --- DISILLUSIONMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -------------- --- ¶7. (SBU) SPLM Abyei Administrator Edward Lino was similarly enervated, pausing to talk amidst radio interviews. "The focus cannot be on today," he stressed, "but on the larger problem." Lino maintained that SAF reinforcements entered Abyei town one hour after fighting began, emphasizing that their proximity to the conflict was a CPA violation in itself. Heglig is part of the ceasefire zone established by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement - SAF troops are not permitted to be there. "Yet the world watches the build up, and watches delays in redeployment, and says nothing." Acting CG reiterated USG efforts to date and request Lino's assistance in securing additional time for action despite building pressures for an outright military confrontation. "We watch who comes to us first," he replied, "and your request will be passed on." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) May 10 of this year saw the SAF and SPLA making common cause to defend Khartoum from a JEM rebel raid. That sense of unity, no matter how uncomfortable for the NCP, has been erased by the events in Abyei. The impatience of key elements of the SPLM with the international community's perceived failure to act on the drawn-out Abyei issue and on what the SPLM sees as the NCP's flagrant and continuing violations of the CPA is growing. SPLM and SPLA officials complain that the SAF 31st Brigade has been in Abyei for over 30 years and remains there in violation of the CPA, and ask why the presence (in compliance with the CPA) of the SPLA JIU contingent is an issue. Additional work will be required to rebuild SPLM faith in bilateral negotiations slated for May 30-June 2, and keeping the SPLM in the GNU will remain a constant challenge. Even before this confrontation, the inexorable inertia towards separation methodically builds year after year. FERNANDEZ