ABYEI REMAINS QUIET MAY 21, BUT TEMPERS REMAIN RAW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000786 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, SE WILLIAMSON NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID MOPS KPKO SU SUBJECT: ABYEI REMAINS QUIET MAY 21, BUT TEMPERS REMAIN RAW REF: A. KHARTOUM 782 ¶B. KHARTOUM 775 ¶C. KHARTOUM 774 ¶D. KHARTOUM 772 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Abyei is reported to be relatively quiet but tense on May 21. Based on confirmed information, any of the previously reported accounts from both the SAF and the SPLA on how the most recent fighting started remain plausible. In speeches on May 20 and May 21, GoSS President Kiir defended the actions of the SPLA, blamed the SAF for the fighting, and promised "if no agreement is to be reached, I will take action." The AEC Chair has convened a meeting to take place in Juba on May 22 and CDA Fernandez will accompany him. END SUMMARY. Quiet, but Tense - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The situation in Abyei appears to be relatively quiet, but tense on May 21. According to SPLA JIU sources, the SPLA pulled back to the Kiir river (ref a). Unidentified firing was heard in the distance and (presumably SAF) aircraft were heard overhead. There are reports from various sources that the Bailey bridge over the Kiir River south of Abyei has been destroyed. (Note: The Kiir River is shallow and can easily be crossed during the dry season. It will become a more formidable barrier as the rainy season advances. End note.) Origin of Latest Fighting Remains Obscure - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) The cause of the May 20 SAF-SPLA battle remains unclear. At this point, the only established facts are that some SPLA element entered Abyei town early on May 20 and clashed with the SAF. A determined and heavy SPLA response, including tanks, drove the SAF from the town, then the SPLA withdrew to the river Kiir. On May 21, an UNMIS official told ConGen Juba staff that, based on the information currently available to him, any of the accounts reported (including the version given to the CDA by MFA U/S Mutrif Siddiq) are plausible, although he personally thought the version given by SPLA Chief of Staff Oyei Deng Ajak (i.e., that the SPLA JIU unit had attempted to reenter Abyei and been attacked by the SAF, triggering the SPLA response) sounded most likely. News reports claim 22 SAF soldiers were killed and 45 wounded which seems to strengthen the idea that SAF was caught by surprise. Kiir: "A Clear Violation of the CPA" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) GoSS President (and GNU First Vice President) Salva Kiir Mayardit addressed the recent incident in speeches both to the SPLM national convention late May 20 and to the SPLA anniversary celebration May 21. Kiir told the SPLM convention that there were no SPLA forces in Abyei the previous day, but that the SAF attacked South Sudan police there. He charged that the SAF 31st Brigade then was advancing to cross the Kiir River and was threatening the IDPs on the south side when the SPLA intervened and drove them back. (Note: This version corresponds with that of FM Deng Alor). Kiir reported that the SAF had suffered 20 KIA (including one colonel) and numerous WIA. He did not state SPLA casualties. He credited good SPLA discipline and leadership with stopping their pursuit and returning to their positions on the river. He concluded that the SPLA will not attack, but that it will defend itself and the IDPs. "Our Patience Has Its Limits" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (U) Kiir told a crowd of thousands at the SPLA rally (and carried live on local media) that the SAF's behavior has been "a clear violation of the CPA," adding that the current situation in Abyei stems from inaction and non-implementation of the CPA's Abyei Protocol. He charged that the SAF had attacked civilians inside Abyei town on May 14 and now had tried to pursue them where they had fled for safety. "Just as violence has been condemned in Darfur, so too the world should condemn SAF action in Abyei." He said he still is awaiting a satisfactory response from President Bashir on promises made last week to ease the situation. Kiir concluded, "If no agreement is to be reached, I will take action." ¶6. (U) In his speech to the rally, SPLA Chief of Staff Ajak reviewed a list of alleged SAF aggression since 2006. He called on both parties to renew their commitment to the CPA with "sincerity and honesty," but added "we cannot allow the present situation to continue - our patience, Mr. Chairman, has its limits." AEC Will Convene in Juba - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Assessment and Evaluation Committee (AEC) Chairman Derek Plumbly has scheduled a special plenary meeting of the AEC in Juba to discuss the Abyei situation on May 22. CDA Fernandez will attend KHARTOUM 00000786 002 OF 002 if flights allow, if not CG staff will represent the U.S. at the session. Comment - - - - ¶8. (SBU) The fighting has stopped for now, but the rhetoric has gained in tempo. Tempers remain extremely raw. President Kiir and General Deng Ajak emphasized to the SPLA anniversary celebration that the SPLM's patience with the Abyei's unresolved status has reached its limit and if an acceptable solution is not found soon, it will "act unilaterally". FERNANDEZ