AEC CHAIRMAN TO CONVENE AEC PLENARY IN JUBA TO ADDRESS

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000777 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KSCA OTRA EAID CDC SU SUBJECT: AEC CHAIRMAN TO CONVENE AEC PLENARY IN JUBA TO ADDRESS ABYEI FIGHTING ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After consulting with AEC Coordinators May 20, AEC Chairman Derek Plumbly said he would convene a special plenary session of the Commission in Juba May 22 to address the recent outbreak of fighting in Abyei. A previously-planned trip by the AEC to the troubled region is not feasible right now because of the fighting. At the meeting of AEC Working Group Coordinators, the first version of the complete AEC Mid-Term Evaluation (MTE) was distributed for comment. The draft will be distributed to the two parties early next month for discussions on the text and recommendations. END SUMMARY MEETING TO BE CALLED IN JUBA -------------- ¶2. (U) Chairman Plumbly convened the May 20, 2008 meeting of AEC Coordinators to discuss the status of the MTE. However, the meeting began with a discussion of what to do about the recent outbreak of fighting in Abyei. The Chairman said two options occurred to him: 1) sending a fact-finding delegation to the area, and 2) convening a special plenary session in Juba to discuss the fighting. The first option, which the Three Areas Working Group has been considering for some weeks, was not possible because of the security situation. However, Plumbly said he had received agreement to the idea of an AEC meeting in Juba regarding Abyei from the NCP and the SPLM. ¶3. (SBU) Plumbly said that the two sides seem tentatively to have worked out a mechanism to move towards a solution on Abyei, with the expectation that the mechanism would begin to be implemented after the SPLM's ongoing political convention. The SPLM hopes the international community, through the AEC, will urge the two parties to move forward with this mechanism. Plumbly did not provide any further details on this "mechanism." PROGRESS WITH THE MTE -------------- ¶4. (U) Also at the May 20 Coordinators meeting, the AEC distributed the consolidated first draft of the Mid-Term Evaluation for comment from the Coordinators. This version is based on the contributions from the four Working Groups. After the AEC receives comments from embassies (due by May 25),Plumbly will present the draft to the two parties at a meeting of the AEC steering committee. This steering committee is an ad hoc group consisting of the two parties and the working group embassies to deal with drafting of the MTE. Negotiations over the text will follow, but at the steering committee rather than at the working group level. The Chairman said he will attempt to keep discussions focused on the MTE recommendations rather than the factual text of the report itself. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Post supports the Chairman's proposal to convene a meeting on Abyei in Juba. This will likely be the foundation for any further action by the AEC to calm passions over the disputed region. While the CJMC - with participation from the UN, SAF, and SPLA - is best situated to address the military aspects of an agreement, the AEC is best situated to propose political solutions to the impasse on the Abyei protocol - if there is full participation of the signatories and observers to the Naivasha process. By convening the AEC in Juba, the meeting has a chance of serving this purpose, since the SPLM has not been participating actively in previous AEC meetings of late. Regarding the MTE, Plumbly may have hit upon a means to move the discussion forward without allowing the two sides to get bogged down in bickering over every phrase in the report itself, as happened during the production of the two-year Factual Report last year. Limiting discussion of the text to the Steering Committee may also serve to facilitate involvement by the SPLM, which has been lacking in the MTE process to date. FERNANDEZ