SPLM HOLDS FOUR-DAY CPA CELEBRATION IN WAU

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000075 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM HOLDS FOUR-DAY CPA CELEBRATION IN WAU ¶1. (SBU) The GoSS pulled out all the stops to hold its own celebrations of the third anniversary of the signing of the CPA, with a four-day celebration in the southern city of Wau from January 13 to 16 that included cultural events, speeches, sports competitions and parades. By holding the celebration in Wau, and moving almost the entire senior leadership there for the event, the GoSS intended to show that this is not a Juba-centric government, but one that represents all the regions of the south. On January 14, the GoSS flew the entire diplomatic community and many of the NGOs in Juba to Wau for the day so they could attend GoSS President Salva Kiir's address to the people. Although the SPLM participated in the low-key CPA events held in Khartoum on January 9 (there were no public events in Khartoum, and none to which the diplomatic community was invited) the events in Wau were the primary focus of the SPLM and the GoSS. ¶2. (SBU) GoSS President Kiir delivered his speech at the Wau soccer stadium. This was preceded by parades and speeches by others, including Vice President Taha, the only member of the NCP present for the event. Taha spoke only in Arabic, the only speaker to do so. Taha's address outlined the benefits the CPA has brought, as well as its potential to allow the people of the Sudan to live together in a "new Sudan" with prosperity for all. Kiir's address followed. On the one hand, he praised the CPA and extolled the fruits of peace and the benefits of increasing development and prosperity made possible by peace. On the other hand, he advised the GOS that the southern commitment to unity was "conditional" and that the enemies of peace intent on stirring up trouble should not "overplay your hand." ¶4. (SBU) While citing the large income that the GoSS receives from oil sharing with the north, Kiir pointedly asserted that southern Sudan on a per capita basis gets far less than the north. He complained that he had inherited a corrupt civil service in 2005, but that he would not tolerate further corruption and would work to stamp it out. He warned that the challenges for the South are enormous, and that mistakes will inevitably be made, but he promised progress on all fronts including health care, education, development, and road building. ¶5. (SBU) Kiir went on to discuss specific outstanding problems with the CPA. At the top of the list was the demarcation of the border in Abyei, which he said must be settled in 2008. The 2009 elections, he maintained, would also present a major test of the CPA. All parties must participate in the elections, but he said Sudan needs to learn a lesson from Kenya and avoid the violence that marked elections there. ¶6. (SBU) In a warning to the North, Kiir plainly stated that the GoSS commitment to the unity of the Sudan was conditional and it was "up to the north, not to us." "They must make unity attractive, because the people of the south preserved the right to self-determination in 2011." There are, he said, sworn enemies to the peace who are currently stirring up problems on the border. "Don't overplay your hand," he pointedly warned them, by fighting proxy wars on the border. He called for continued vigilance and pressure by the international community to keep the CPA on track. Without such pressure in the first place, he said the CPA would never have been signed in the first place. ¶7. (SBU) On Darfur, the GoSS supported the hybrid force deployment and Kiir promised that 2008, with GoSS assistance, would be the year that peace comes to that troubled region. Finally, Kiir stated that the GoSS is committed to devoting 2 percent of its oil revenue to assist the "marginalized peoples" of the Sudan. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: On the whole, the tone of the speech was upbeat about the future of the south, but full of warnings to the north about the limits of southern patience. Of particular note was the public commitment to use 2 percent of GoSS oil revenues to court the marginalized peoples of the Sudan, which seemed to indicate that Kiir's strategy for the 2009 elections will be to run against the NCP in alliance with the other marginalized peoples of the Sudan. Or conversely, in typical Sudanese style it could also have been an opening bargaining ploy to pressure the NCP to meet SPLM demands on border demarcation and other issues in return for not running against the NCP. At this point, the SPLM intends to keep its options open. FERNANDEZ