ABYEI UPDATE: FIGHTING SUBSIDES, BUT HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000745 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF EAID MOPS KPKO SU SUBJECT: ABYEI UPDATE: FIGHTING SUBSIDES, BUT HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY LOOMS REF: KHARTOUM 737 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Fighting between SAF and SPLA (reftel) subsided on May 15 and late in the day the sides agreed to a mutual withdrawal. Casualty numbers from May 13-14 fighting are unknown, but the town reportedly sustained heavy damage and the UN estimates that as many as 30,000 people (virtually the entire town) have fled the fighting and are now in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. Late May 15, UN Regional Coordinator's Office in Abyei expressed concern that Misseriya tribesmen may now be massing to renew the fight. CDA Fernandez and CG Juba officers weighed in on May 15 in Juba on the margins of the SPLM convention with SPLM Abyei representative Edward Lino, GNU Foreign Minister (and Ngok Dinka from Abyei) Deng Alor, and GOSS Minister of Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng to urge restraint from the SPLA and SSPS forces in the area. FM Alor said he would raise the issue of the Misseriya tribesmen with GNU First Vice President Taha and GNU Minister of State Ahmed Haroun (who attended the SPLM convention) immediately before they departed for Khartoum the afternoon of May 15. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Fighting between SAF and SPLA in Abyei town (reftel) subsided on May 15. The UN reports that fighting began late May 13 with a localized altercation at an SPLM police outpost outside of the town that led to the shooting death of one SAF soldier. The resulting fighting between SAF and SPLA units spread throughout the town itself, resulting in a mass exodus of the civilian population. On May 15, the UNMIS Deputy Force Commander traveled to Abyei to attempt to resolve the dispute and end the fighting permanently. At a Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (CJMC) meeting late in the day, SAF and SPLA agreed to pull out of Abyei town to the north and south respectively. ¶3. (SBU) The UN reports that, with the exception of three FAO employees who are stranded in the nearby town of Agok, all UN staff and international NGO staff now are safe in the UNMIS camp in Abyei or have been evacuated to Kadugli. The international staff of two NGOs, GOAL International and Save the Children, who were cutoff in their compounds on May 14 were successfully evacuated to the UNMIS camp early on May 15 and at mid-day were awaiting transport by air to Kadugli. ¶4. (SBU) The number of casualties sustained in the May 13-14 fighting is unknown, but the town of Abyei reportedly sustained heavy damage, with the town's market area destroyed by fire. The UN and USAID partners estimate that virtually the entire population, an estimated 30,000 people, abandoned the town to escape the fighting. Most fled toward Agok to the south, but others simply are hiding in the surrounding countryside. ¶5. (SBU) The UN already has begun to plan a two-stage relief operation to assist the newly displaced population, the first being an emergency humanitarian response to sustain those who have fled their homes with food, water, and emergency shelter. Once the situation calms down, the UN expects refugees to start returning to the town. The UN then plans an emergency reconstruction effort to repair what infrastructure had existed (Abyei already was badly neglected, due to the failure of the government in Khartoum to install a permanent administration) and make the town habitable again. ¶6. (SBU) Virtually the entire SPLM leadership, including that of the Abyei region, is currently in Juba attending the SPLM national convention. ConGen staff report that on the opening day of the convention May 15, a number of speeches made reference to Abyei. In his speech at the convention, SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir noted that there was fighting in Abyei but that he himself did not know exactly what was going on. Kiir said that the SPLA is not involved in the fighting and it's up to the NCP and the SAF to solve it. (Note: Some contacts in Juba reported that sporadic fighting in Abyei May 15 was between SSPS and SAF, and did not involve the SPLA, but this has not been confirmed. End note.) ¶7. (SBU) Late on May 15, the Office of the UN Regional Coordinator contacted Post to express concern that Misseriya tribesmen from the north are reported to be massing to enter the fight and requested that the Embassy reach out to Misseriya contacts to ask them to refrain. There is an ethnic Misseriya presence in Abyei town and to the north and it is not unlikely that they or their compatriots may be responding to rumors. Post will attempt to use its contacts to calm the situation, but the Misseriya are far from homogenous and what Misseriya militias may be gathering is unclear at this point. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The subsiding of the fighting today provides an opportunity to reestablish the fragile peace that existed before. KHARTOUM 00000745 002 OF 002 However, reports that Misseriya may be massing to join in the fight indicate that the situation is by no means resolved and how easily things could slide again back into chaos. On the margins of the SPLM convention, CDA Fernandez informed FM Alor, GOSS Minister of the Presidency Biong Deng, and SPLM Abyei representative Lino of the latest information from Abyei. FM Alor said he would speak with GNU Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha and GNU Minister of State (and GNU Abyei negotiator) Ahmed Haroun immediately before they departed Juba for Khartoum in an effort to head off the reported Misseriya movements. Our sense from these SPLM leaders in Juba is that they were relatively well informed of events in Abyei, but distracted with weightier political matters within the SPLM movement - even Luka Biong Deng and Deng Alor, who are from Abyei. FERNANDEZ