SPLM PROPOSES FM ALOR VISIT PARIS TO DISCUSS JEM/CHAD, SPLA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000741 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM PROPOSES FM ALOR VISIT PARIS TO DISCUSS JEM/CHAD, SPLA MAY SEND TROOPS TO KHARTOUM ¶1. (SBU) GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor told poloffs in Juba May 14 that President Bashir may send him to Paris possibly as soon as next week to discuss Chad and its support for JEM with the French. Alor asked poloffs to "pass this information to your people in Khartoum and Washington." FM Alor plans to return to Khartoum during the May 16 pause in the SPLM National Convention to discuss details with President Bashir. Alor said the initiative derived from discussions between the NISS Chief Salah Ghosh and his Southerner Deputy Majok following a meeting between Bashir, Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie, Defense Minister Hussein, and Ghosh, in which the NCP leadership had reportedly determined to "take the battle to Chad." According to Alor, during Ghosh's post-meeting readout NISS Deputy Majok counseled against such a direct course of action, citing repeat invitations from Paris to the SPLM Foreign Minister, and suggested a joint Sudanese/French effort to pressure Chad. Ghosh reportedly has endorsed the suggestion and plans to propose it to President Bashir, according to Deng. ¶2. (SBU) The plan would be for Alor to meet with his French counterpart to see what pressure the French are willing to put on Chad to negotiate with the Chadian rebels and to cut off their support to JEM. Alor said that the Sudanese are aware that if the Chadian rebels attack Ndjamena again, they likely will encounter French troops and/or the French Air Force. Alor said he believes Khartoum does actually prefer to negotiate rather than have another round of fighting. However, he noted ominously that the Chadian rebels are prepared to fight again, according to what he has heard from NISS Deputy Majok. ¶3. (SBU) Alor said that the SPLA may send 5000 troops to reinforce the SAF in Khartoum and other locations in the North, although President Bashir was currently reconsidering his May 11 request for SPLA support. (NOTE: Although Kiir initially refused SPLA or SPLA/JIU assistance, he agreed to Bashir's later request of 3,000 troops, and offered unsolicited an additional 2,000. End note.) President Bashir was extremely impressed that First Vice President Kiir and FM Alor traveled to Khartoum despite the insecurity in the capital, according to Alor. "You risked your lives to come here," President Bashir reportedly said appreciatively. President Kiir will likely send the troops in the interest of supporting the national defense, said Alor, but he wryly noted that the situation must be extremely bad in the North if President Bashir cannot trust his own military and prefers southern soldiers. Alor noted that many in the SAF are from Darfur and Kordofan, and therefore cannot be trusted to fight against the Darfur rebels. These SPLA plans may change because of events in Abyei. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Alor was obviously hoping for US support of the proposal for his own intervention with the French. If Khartoum acts on the SPLM's proposal for FM Alor to visit his counterpart in Paris, France could take advantage of this opportunity to press the GNU to stop funding Chadian rebels, and offer to engage with Chad regarding JEM in return. Rejecting such a visit by the GNU Foreign Minister would be a missed opportunity for Paris to engage on the Darfur/Chad portfolio, if the visit actually moves forward. Moreover, the visit would enhance the profile and prestige of the SPLM-member ForU{wQpnrom Khalil Ibrahim, their NIF nemesis, but in Sudan the needs of the moment often make for strange bedfellows. President Bashir reportedly has not made a final determination. FERNANDEZ