ORPHANS OF THE CPA - SUDAN'S NUBA MOUNTAINS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000720 FOR SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID SOCI KPKO SU SUBJECT: ORPHANS OF THE CPA - SUDAN'S NUBA MOUNTAINS REF: KHARTOUM 630 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: One of Sudan's "Three Areas," the Nuba Mountains region of South Kordofan state hosts SPLA enclaves north of the 1956 dividing line between north and south Sudan. According to a high-ranking SPLM and GNU official who hails from the area, the region continues to host 16,000-17,000 SPLA troops and the SPLM acts as the de facto government, in the absence of any support from South Kordofan state, the GNU in Khartoum, or even the GoSS in Juba. Without the option of voting in the 2011 referendum, the local population prefers a unified Sudan, but it remains an open and troubling question how they will respond if, as expected, the South votes for independence and they find themselves stranded north of the border. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) On May 7, Emboffs met with Ismail Khamis Jallab, an SPLM member of the Government of National Unity (as State Minister of nimal Resources) and former Brigadier General in the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA). A native of the Nuba Mountains region of South Kordofan, Jallab served there during the civil war and was later the SPLM-appointed governor of South Kordofan state. (Note. Under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),the South Kordofan state government rotates between the SPLM and the NCP. Currently, the NCP controls the South Kordofan government. End note.) Jallab provided several useful insights into the situation in his native region. SPLM Enclave in the North -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Jallab noted that during the civil war, Nuba Mountains was one of three SPLA strongholds (along with Abyei and southern Blue Nile state) north of the 1956 border, collectively referred to as the "Three Areas." The 2005 CPA specified actions to be taken to resolve the conflicts in these regions. While the CPA provides that Abyei will participate in the 2011 referendum on Southern independence, neither the Nuba Mountains nor Blue Nile state have that option, and are to remain part of Sudan whatever the referendum's outcome. ¶4. (SBU) Although technically situated in South Kordofan, Jallab said that residents of the Nuba Mountains do not receive government services from the NCP-controlled state government. Neither are they supported by the Government of South Sudan in Juba, leaving the local SPLM/SPLA as the de facto local administration. Jallab confirmed that these areas are essentially administered by the SPLM, secured by the SPLA, and that services are provided primarily by INGOs. (Note: This corresponds with the observations that a USAID officer made during a recent visit to the region (reftel). End note.) Significant SPLA Presence North of the Border -------------- ¶5. (SBU) According to the CPA, SAF forces are to withdraw to the north and SPLA forces to south of the 1956 border. However, Jallab estimated that 16,000 - 17,000 SPLA troops remain in the Nuba Mountains region. (Note: This number is close to the estimated total number of Darfur rebels. End note.) Of these, 13,000 - 14,000 are regular SPLA, while an additional 3,000 SPLA are enrolled in the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) established under the CPA. These soldiers are natives of the area, according to Jallab, and thus unwilling to leave their homes and withdraw south if the South voted for secession in 2011. According to Jallab, a complicating factor is the failure so far to implement DDR, which has made it difficult for many long-time SPLA soldiers to transition back to civilian life. Jallab confirmed that there also are SPLA units north of the Nuba Mountains that he said will withdraw to the south once the border is officially demarcated. Support for a Unified Sudan -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Jallab confirmed that the population of the Nuba Mountains strongly supports keeping Sudan united. Given that South Kordofan does not have option to vote to join the South should it vote for independence in 2011, the alternative is to find itself cutoff in the North. The Nuba people are a natural constituency for the SPLM, inspired by John Garang's vision of a united "New Sudan" and the region will vote in support of the SPLM in the 2009 elections with that in mind. According to Jallab, support for unity is very strong among the SPLM north of the 1956 border, but less so in the South, where many instead look forward to the 2011 referendum as the opportunity to attain southern independence. What will be the response among the SPLM in the Nuba Mountains should Southerners vote for independence in 2011 is open to speculation. Jallab demurred when asked to predict what the Nuba would do if the South secedes. Instead, Jallab focused on the fact that many in the SPLM (including President Salva Kiir, he claimed) is still for the unity KHARTOUM 00000720 002 OF 002 if Sudan. Jallab said that he and all other northern members (including powerful members such as Deputy SG for the Northern Sector Yasir Arman, GNU Presidential Advisor Mansour Khalid, and Blue Nile Governor Malik Agar) of the SPLM would strongly support Kiir at the SPLM convention this week since he is for unity. Optimistically, Jallab predicted that one of the outcomes of the SPLM convention would be a confirmation that the SPLM party as a whole is for the unity of Sudan. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Nuba Mountains draws far less public attention than does nearby Abyei, and lacks a dynamic leader like Blue Nile's Malik Agar, but it clearly has the potential to become a major flashpoint sometime in the future given the uncertain status of its inhabitants. The lingering presence of many SPLA soldiers and the lack of an established government that can provide public services are ingredients for conflict. Likewise, that the region may be left unwillingly in the North if the South decides to secede in 2011 provides a dangerous potential source of renewed conflict. FERNANDEZ