SPLM - "WE WILL NEVER COALESCE WITH THE NCP"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000072 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM - "WE WILL NEVER COALESCE WITH THE NCP" REF: (A) KHARTOUM 063 (B) KHARTOUM 025 (C) 07 KHARTOUM 2011 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: There are still several issues being negotiated regarding the electoral law at the level of the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC): how women will be elected, the make-up of the mixed electoral system, and how to manage the registration and voting process for Sudanese IDPs and Sudanese citizens living in the diaspora. An SPLM source claims that her party will "never" coalesce with the NCP before the elections and warns that if the NCP feels "weak" over the next eight to ten months, the elections are unlikely to be executed in a free and fair manner. END SUMMARY. -------------- MORE FEMALE POLITICIANS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a 17 January meeting with SPLM member and National Assembly Chairperson of the Human Rights Committee Dr. Barsila Joseph, Joseph said that women currently occupy less than 20 percent of seats in the GNU National Assembly. The draft election law provides for an increase in female representation at all levels of the government (national, state, and in the GoSS) to at least 25 percent. Joseph said this new development would "clear the space" for women to participate more actively in the Sudanese political process and provide them with political experience and confidence. It will also enable women to "work across party lines", said Joseph. ¶3. (SBU) Although there is agreement among the parties that 25 percent of seats at all levels of government will be held by women, there is still a debate over the way in which these women will be elected. According to Joseph, the SPLM would like for women to be elected via a proportional voting system. The NCP, however, is fighting for female election by direct representation. Joseph stressed that electing women via proportional representation is important because it may allow women, at some levels, to have representation that is greater than 25 percent. Women, she explained, have not previously had a chance to prove themselves in politics and "deliver" to Sudanese communities. Moreover, tradition and culture have severely limited the leadership role of women in political and social structures. If women are elected via direct representation, it will be very difficult for women to achieve representation above 25 percent. ¶4. (SBU) Historically, Joseph said, women have participated and voted in elections in Sudan. The problem, claimed Joseph, was that many women are "directed" to vote for specific candidates by parties and/or family members. Joseph admitted that more voter education intended for women must be carried out by civil society groups in order to make women aware of why they are voting and the significance of their vote. She lamented that there has never been a comprehensive voter education program for women in Sudan. -------------- ELECTION TIMELINE AND POTENTIAL OBSTACLES -------------- ¶5. (SBU) At the closing of the National Assembly's extended session on 16 January, Speaker Ahmed Ibrahim Al-Tahir urged that the electoral law must pass through the Council of Ministers and National Assembly before April. When asked whether the National Assembly would call a special session before April to review and ratify the electoral law, Joseph said that "it depends on how the parties behave." The draft bill, now stuck in the NCRC, cannot move forward to the Council of Ministers or the National Assembly until parties agree on several details. [NOTE: Dr. Joseph is a member of the 60-person NCRC. END NOTE.] ¶6. (SBU) According to Joseph, the most critical issues that must be dealt with before the election are the census and voter registration. She stressed the importance of the census, saying that it will not only determine constituencies but also the strength (in terms of population) and representation numbers of such constituencies. Joseph suggested that in order for the GNU to meet the CPA-mandated election timeline of July 2009, more people must immediately get involved in the process and begin activities such as voter education and awareness before the electoral law is passed. ¶7. (SBU) The CPA parties, in the NCRC, are still debating how Sudanese citizens in the diaspora and refugees will vote in the 2009 elections. Southern Sudanese officials are encouraging southern Sudanese refugees to move back to their homes before the national census is scheduled to take place in late April. Joseph said that Sudanese citizens living outside the country at the time of elections could vote in Sudanese embassies, but there is concern over how to control this process and its susceptibility to KHARTOUM 00000072 002 OF 002 vote-rigging. The electoral law currently states that a citizen must vote where he/she resides, which renders southern Sudanese who live outside of southern Sudan powerless to vote in the upcoming GoSS elections. This issue, however, is being debated in the NCRC. ¶8. (U) Joseph, along with the Women's Center for Human Rights and UNMIS, hosted a session on Sudanese electoral history and electoral law for parliamentarians this week in the National Assembly. Joseph said that the training was meant to mobilize and educate assembly members from various committees on election legislation before the draft electoral law is brought to the Assembly. Joseph believes that such training will not only enrich the debate over the electoral law but will spawn its quick ratification by familiarizing assembly members with electoral issues. Approximately 40 parliamentarians attended. -------------- THE NEC AND POTENTIAL PARTY COALITIONS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) With respect to the formation of an independent NEC, Joseph said that the Presidency must choose candidates who have the ability to set their own political opinions aside for the sake of constructive debate and dialogue. She mentioned that the two current co-chairs of the NCRC, Abdulla Idris and Abel Alier, are well-respected and would make good NEC candidates. She warned that if the parties do not respect those who Al-Bashir chooses as members of the nine-person NEC team, the elections process will not go smoothly. ¶10. (SBU) Joseph vehemently denied rumors that the SPLM would coalesce with the NCP in advance of elections. "It will never happen", she insisted. Instead, she said, the SPLM is likely to coalesce with smaller groups that are "more like itself" such as groups from the Eastern Front or, if created, a Darfurian party. On the issue of free and fair elections, Joseph said that if the NCP feels weak over the next eight to ten months, elections are unlikely to be free and fair. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: Although the Sudanese should be applauded for their efforts to empower female politicians by allocating them greater representation in the GNU and GoSS at all levels, the more immediate concern is the continued hold-up of the electoral law. NCP and SPLM sources have indicated that the chances of the President calling a special parliamentary session to review and approve the law before April are good. Still, the work that must be done in preparing and executing the elections after the law is passed and before 9 July 2009 is daunting. Although the NCRC claims the parties have reached common ground on all fronts except for the percentages of the mixed system, it is clear that other issues remain, such as the registration and voting of IDPs and the diaspora. FERNANDEZ