CHAD: AWAITING CONTACT FROM DEBY, NOURI sEEKS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000713 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU PARIS FOR KANEDA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV SU CD LY SA SUBJECT: CHAD: AWAITING CONTACT FROM DEBY, NOURI sEEKS "CLOBAL COLUTION" RAF: SECTa\E461Q Clas{fih!ry D#MaRi"mstg`@owqsS. ^dAu.n8 W%sxwn,Q7("Q afap$g) MQ-'l%,Q] IomeYQm)mQ#Mj!Q(]bBi&GQiUc:ppI,"QqB27ile h Deby's Government, Nouri reported that no Chadian representatives, including Prime Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas, have contacted any of the National Alliance's leaders since 2007. Acknowledging that the AN has not attempted to contact the Chadian Government directly, he asserted that they had passed word of their willingness to negotiate through the Libyan/Congolese mediation. Calling on the U.S. to "wake up" to the widespread opposition to Deby's rule, Nouri articulated a long-term approach to creating a "culture" of democracy. He remains enthusiastic to a meeting between AN leaders and a USG official in a third country and suggested that the U.S. "facilitate" discussions among the armed and unarmed opposition and the Chadian Government. End summary. -------------- Seeking a "Global Solution" -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting with Union des Force du Developpement et de la Democratie (UFDD) President Mahamat Nouri and National Alliance (AN) Secretary General Abakar Tolli on May 8, Polcouns and Poloff delivered reftel points. Nouri reiterated his preference for a peaceful solution to the AN's conflict with the Chadian Government and said that he sought a "global solution" to his country's domestic problems that would include a dialogue among representatives of Deby's regime, the armed and unarmed opposition, and civil society--not just direct negotiations between the AN and Ndjamena. He reported that Sudan is "more and more supportive of dialogue" to resolve the conflict in Chad. -------------- Waiting for Deby -------------- ¶3. (C) Asked why, if Sudan, the U.S., and the AN itself supported dialogue, such discussions had not begun, Nouri replied, "we're waiting for Deby to be open to dialogue. It's like a marriage: You cannot have a marriage without both parties' involvement, and we cannot prevent war without all the parties talking." Reporting that N'djamena had not contacted the AN leaders since the Sirte Accord of 2007--despite Prime Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas' recent 
speech indicating his intention to reach out to the rebel movements--Nouri and Tolli also acknowledged the Chadian rebels had not initiated such discussions. They had, however, communicated their desire for negotiations through the Congo/Libyan mediation, said Nouri. -------------- National Reconciliation, Elections... -------------- ¶4. (C) Nouri maintained that the AN will renounce the use of force and its demands for Deby's immediate removal from power if an AN leader is appointed prime minister to 1) lead a "national roundtable" for reconciliation among Chadian political, military, and civilian elements; and 2) prepare KHARTOUM 00000713 002 OF 003 for the elections in 2009, in which Deby will be barred from running. Tolli asserted that Nouri, as the undisputed leader of the AN composed of the UFDD, Abdelwahid Aboud's UFDD/F, and Ahmed Soubian's Front du Salut de la Republique (FSR), would assume the prime minister post under this scenario. ¶5. (C) Nouri said that the Libyans had suggested just such a scenario, which Deby rejected, during the Sirte negotiations in 2007. Ultimately, the Sirte agreement was insufficient in promoting political change in Chad, but Nouri said he had signed as a result of Libyan threats. Unless Deby's power is limited and a national reconciliation process can begin before the 2009 elections, Nouri predicted that these elections would be a failure. "Deby humiliates the opposition, humiliates civil society, and will prevent their participation in elections," said Nouri. He called on the U.S. and the Western powers to "wake up" to widespread opposition to Deby's rule among ordinary Chadians. ¶6. (C) If, however, Deby continues to reject any constructive discussions with the Chadian rebels and other elements of Chadian society, Nouri said that the AN will proceed with plans to overthrow the regime by force. In this case, an interim administration led by the AN will govern the country during a six-month transition period, convene a "national roundtable" to shepherd a reconciliation process, and prepare for elections. Nouri pledged that the leaders of the interim administration would not run in these elections. -------------- Forging a Culture of Democracy -------------- ¶7. (C) Though the AN is still considering the violent overthrow of Deby's government as a viable option, Nouri nonetheless expressed little enthusiasm or urgency for this course, emphasizing instead that "democracy is a culture, a process." The cycle of violence in Chad has continued since 1967, said Nouri, and the only method of breaking this cycle is through the involvement of all elements of the Chadian population in their political life. He asserted that it will take time and discussions for the disparate and volatile elements of Chadian society to build a consensus on their country's future but that the divisive and ethnically-driven policies of the Chadian Government, in which Deby is the sole and autocratic decision-maker, prevented such action. "We have a great ambition (for democracy in Chad),but it's worth thinking and talking to attain it." -------------- U.S. As "Facilitator" -------------- ¶8. (C) Nouri and Tolli disparaged Libya, Congo-Brazzaville, and AU Chairman Jean Ping (a Libyan lackey in their estimation) for their pro-Deby bias, though noted that Congo-Brazzaville is somewhat less tainted by Libyan influence than Gabon. They were grateful for recent USG contact with the AN and called for a greater U.S. role in the political process. Polcouns explained that while the U.S. may consider playing an observer role to any discussions, it is not now prepared to serve as a mediator. Nouri suggested the U.S. work as "facilitator" for a dialogue with the Chadian Government that includes all elements of the opposition. International pressure is needed to moderate Deby's continued refusal for constructive talks, said Nouri. Poloff noted that keeping up the threat of violent overthrow indicated that the AN had lost hope in a peace process. Nouri responded, "Yes, but we're waiting for hope." -------------- Extremist Allegations "Unthinkable" KHARTOUM 00000713 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶9. (C) Nouri called allegations that he or the AN harbor an extremist agenda "unthinkable lies spread by Ndjamena" and noted that, despite having served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, he found the Saudis--particularly Crown Prince Sultan--difficult. He said Saudi Arabia's support for the Chadian Government is "now more timid," adding that Riyadh "has had enough of Deby." Tolli remarked that the Saudis have tired of Deby's "exaggerations" and his readiness to break his commitments. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (S/NF) Throughout the conversation, Nouri demonstrated an academic-like demeanor in articulating the dynamics of the Chadian political scene, at one point bringing in a map to explain particular geographic features of the Tibestie region and the roots of the Toubou tribe's impulsive nature. While adamantly opposed to the Chadian Government and its policies, he expressed none of the personal vitriol toward Deby or his inner circle that is common among other AN rebels we have met. Nouri is enthusiastic about a meeting with a USG official in a third country and, fearing for his safety if he travels outside of Sudan, said that Tolli and Soubian are empowered to represent AN views. Nouri and Tolli's close relationship, mutual respect, and shared political views were evident throughout the discussion. The meeting occurred in a large well-appointed house in the Ma'amoura neighborhood of Khartoum, one block from Tolli's current residence. Nouri, whose wife also introduced herself to Emboffs, has obviously been receiving frequent visitors since his arrival in Khartoum on May 6. End comment. ¶11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. FERNANDEZ