UNMIS DEPUTY RESIDENT SEES PROBLEMS AHEAD IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000070 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, SE WILLIAMSON, IO, NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2012 TAGS: KPKO PGOV PREL UN AU SU SUBJECT: UNMIS DEPUTY RESIDENT SEES PROBLEMS AHEAD IN GOVERNANCE, CENSUS AND UNMIS LEADERSHIP REF: 07 KHARTOUM 1971 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an action cable, please see para 5. ¶2. (C) Summary: UNMIS Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for South Sudan David Gressly worries that poor governance and corruption risk derailing the potentially bright future of South Sudan while budget shortfalls could lead to problems with the spring 2008 census and the early departure of the UNMIS Force Commander could imperil that mission's work at a crucial period when Northern and Southern military forces are redeploying and need to be closely monitored. End summary. ¶3. (C) UNMIS Deputy Resident David Gressly told AF PDAS Linda Thomas-Greeenfield and CDA Fernandez on January 16 in Juba that corruption and mismanagement in the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) threaten to blight South Sudan's future. "It could wind up as a smaller version of Nigeria, a corrupt oil state never fulfilling its promise," he noted. Gressly said that there were still some decent individuals in the leadership of the GOSS and the SPLM but the international community needed to do more to build accountability, good governance and anti-corruption into the system before it is too late. GOSS procurement continues to be a major problem. Gressly said that GOSS President Kiir had highlighted the importance of road building and infrastructure development in the South, especially in Jongelei State, the South's largest but one which has seen very few tangible benefits of peace. Kiir is eager to see roads built connecting South Sudan to Ethiopia (through Jongelei) as an alternate to the Uganda/Kenya corridors which serve as an economic and security lifeline for the South. ¶4. (C) Gressly asked for American pressure on the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Khartoum to pay the final installment of $11 million for the 2008 census. While the central government delivered $30 million for this initiative in December (reftel),the remaining shortfall could endanger the upcoming census in the South which should take place before the rainy season begins in earnest in May. The GOSS itself has no cash reserves and can't make up the shortfall on its own. Gressly was relatively optimistic about progress in the South and in Sudan in general in the near term, until 2009, but worried about the period between the 2009 elections and the 2011 referendum as the period of greatest danger for Sudan. CDA Fernandez answered that he would raise the $11 million shortfall with the GNU although the Sudanese usually blamed the US for its budget problems. ¶5. (C) Action request: Gressly noted that UNMIS Force Commander LTG Jasbir Singh Lidder had only received a 3 month extension to his assignment in the South. He forcefully urged that the USG intervene with the UN in New York and with the Indian Government in New Delhi to extend Lidder's term an additional 3 months, at least. Lidder's leadership and expertise is needed at this critical juncture when SAF and SPLA units are redeploying and JIUs need to be trained, equipped and positioned in sensitive border and oil regions. This total extension of six months for Lidder would take UNMIS through the key tasks identified for 2008 before the summer rains make movement unfeasible in South Sudan. ¶6. (U) PDAS Thomas-Greenfield did not review this message before her departure from post. FERNANDEZ