UNAMID'S JMST REACHES OUT TO THE U.S. LOOKING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000615 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, AF/SE WILLIAMSON, NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017 TAGS: KPKO PGOV PHUM PREF PREL SU SUBJECT: UNAMID'S JMST REACHES OUT TO THE U.S. LOOKING FOR HELP AND DIRECTION REF: KHARTOUM 614 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY On April 20, UNAMID's Joint Mediation Support Team (JMST) Chief of Staff Yassir Sabra told poloffs that there is a "window of opportunity" for engaging the rebels and the Government of Sudan (GoS) on security issues with a meeting planned for late May possibly in Geneva. Sabra also discretely requested U.S. assistance in identifying an individual who may be able to enliven this "dry discussion on security" and at the same time provide confidence-building measures and improve group dynamics. In a separate meeting on April 20, other JMST representatives raised the idea of having an American fill the UNAMID's chief mediator position. Sabra also provided a lively account of the JMST's meetings in the field with several rebel factions. END SUMMARY PROCESS AND "DISCRETE" REQUEST FOR AMERICAN EXPERTS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Sabra said that the JMST continues to focus on security and will likely hold a meeting in late May with several rebel movements and the Government of Sudan. Sabra stated it is important not just to fixate on the end result of security negotiations, but to focus on bringing the groups together for confidence-building and improving the group's overall dynamic. He said that negotiations should not be a one-time event, but an ongoing process. Sabra described security as a "very dry subject" and said that even if the parties are not able to come to a final agreement, that building relationships and trust could be more productive in the long run. Sabra discretely requested names of individuals (possibly American) who could provide advice on these security meetings so they could be conducted in a creative, interesting, and productive manner. Sabra stated that the initial meetings will be low-profile and informal because "when you cannot bring them to the big table, you bring them to the side table." Sabra noted that such confidence-building meetings were an important part of the process in negotiating the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and that perhaps some of the same personalities involved in that process could participate now in Darfur. (Note: On April 20, another JMST representative also discussed further direct American involvement in the peace process with poloffs. JMST political advisor Muin Shrim told POLOFF that he raised the idea with Sam Ibok and Jan Eliasson of appointing an American to UNAMID's Chief Mediator position, as the group does not have any viable candidates at the moment and believes an American will have the most credibility and influence with the parties. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Sabra stated that the typical negotiating sequence (starting with a declaration of principles and ending with a comprehensive cease-fire) does not apply to Sudan, as the DPA has already covered some of these steps. "We need to reverse the order and jump in where we are able to make progress," said Sabra. He stated that the Government of Sudan appears ready to sign "within weeks" a cessation of hostilities, as long as the border areas are excluded from the agreement. (Comment: By excluding the border areas, the GOS seeks to keep the pressure on JEM and SLA/U who receive supplies and arms via Chad. End comment.) VENUE, TIMING, AND THE "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) According to Sabra, the Sudan Liberation Army of Abdul Wahid Al-Nur (SLA/AW) prefers holding these informal talks in Geneva, while JEM prefers Libya, Chad, or Nigeria. Sabra stated that there appears to be a window of opportunity for negotiations with the Government of Sudan. As an example, he said that he attended the Libreville contact group (following the Dakar agreement between Chad and Sudan) and noted that he was amazed that the GoS delegation to Libreville headed by Mutriff Siddiq did not immediately protest when the parties proposed a monitoring mechanism involving UNAMID, EUFOR, and MINURCAT. "I was looking over at Mutriff and I was just waiting for him to jump in protest, but he did not argue with the idea," stated Sabra. As another example, Sabra added that it struck him as strange that in recent meetings with the JMST, Sudanese Government hardliner Dr. Nafie Ali Nafi appeared very receptive to UNAMID's suggestion for more consultation with civil society organizations. According to Sabra, these and other examples indicate that the GoS appears ready to engage (as it is doing with the U.S., UK, and its neighbors) and that this opportunity should also be embraced by UNAMID in the coming KHARTOUM 00000615 002 OF 002 weeks. FIELD VISITS WITH SLA/AW AND JEM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Sabra described JMST's field visit with SLA/AW commanders as very positive. He stated that SLA/AW appears ready to negotiate with all other rebel movements except for Abdul Shafie's group who they regard as a spinter group. According to Sabra, SLA/AW field commanders described JEM's Khalil Ibrahim as "crazy," especially as JEM commanders recently traveled to SLA/AW areas and attempted to bring SLA/AW fighters into their movement. Sabra noted that while SLA/AW field commanders were receptive to JMST proposals, they also appeared very disorganized. ¶6. (C) Sabra stated that JEM greeted the JMST delegation with an impressive, centralized, and highly-controlled show of force. He said that after much planning, JEM agreed to meet in a "no man's land" based on GPS coordinates and that once the JMST team landed, JEM stormed into the meeting with dozens of vehicles. Sabra stated that Khalil Ibrahim was the only one that spoke for JEM. He said that Ibrahim's presentation was so choreographed that while discussing JEM's efforts to attract more followers, with a wave of the hand, dozens of people came out of the desert and joined the meeting. According to Sabra, all of the JEM fighters' equipment appeared brand new "from the RPGs to the matching socks of their uniforms." He stated that Ibrahim called for direct negotiations with the GoS of Sudan, but that they will accept negotiations under the auspices of the JMST. Sabra said that the JMST is attempting to bring all rebel movements to the next round of negotiations, but that JEM may not agree to participate if other groups attend. "We want everyone to come to the same venue and talk, but we will plan for a backup meeting for JEM if they do not come," stated Sabra. He stated that two rounds of negotiations may actually be more appropriate as the issues of the Fur, IDPs, and smaller rebel groups could be handled in one meeting, and the issues of JEM and Chad could be handled in another. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (C) Despite numerous attempts during the meeting with Sabra, poloffs were not able to get more clarity and specificity from him regarding the JMST's strategy for the security talks in Geneva and beyond. While security discussions are the most logical and urgent starting place, it will difficult to use this sensitive topic to build group dynamics and confidence between the parties. Although their plan is still unclear, Sabra's request for U.S. input and Shrim's consideration of an American for the JMST's Chief Mediator should be taken seriously - it is a sign of desperation and clearly the JMST is looking to the U.S. for guidance and support (or seeks to engage us now to avoid criticism later). Regardless, the JMST clearly needs guidance. We suggested that seasoned UN mediators such as Lakhdar Brahimi should be consulted, or others who were at the UN-sponsored talks on Congo and/or Burundi. If the Department has any suggestions based on our experience in Naivasha or at other peace talks, suggestions for the JMST's proposed security meetings in Geneva appear to be welcome. The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, which is based on Geneva and has provided one consultant to the JMST already, may become more involved in planning the proposed Geneva meeting. FERNANDEZ