SURPRISE CENSUS DELAY BY SPLM EXPOSES INTERNAL FISSURES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000566 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, S/E WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SURPRISE CENSUS DELAY BY SPLM EXPOSES INTERNAL FISSURES REFS: A. KHARTOUM 562 ¶B. KHARTOUM 547 ¶C. KHARTOUM 493 ¶D. KHARTOUM 477 ¶E. KHARTOUM 473 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Just one day after GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit publicly supported the upcoming national census and urged all Southern Sudanese to participate in it, the GoSS Council of Ministers, led by Kiir, voted to unilaterally "postpone" the census in Southern Sudan. GoSS officials cited a lack of funding, security, the unresolved issue of border demarcation, the inability of some IDPs to return to Southern Sudan, and the absence of questions on ethnicity and religion on the census forms as the biggest issues warranting a postponement. A dismayed international community is vigorously attempting to convince the GoSS to reverse its decision, but senior GoSS officials have indicated that a reversal is not likely. End Summary. -------------- AN UNWISE DECISION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Over the past two months, some SPLM officials such as GoSS Vice President Riek Machar and GoSS Minister for Agriculture Samson Kwaje, have called for the South's boycott of the census, specifically over the exclusion of questions on religion and ethnicity on the census questionnaires. At the same time, other SPLM officials, such as GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit, GNU FM Deng Alor and GoSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng, publicly supported the census going forward despite minor obstacles related to funding, form shortages, and questions on religion and ethnicity. ¶3. (U) In an extended GoSS Council of Ministers Meeting in Juba on 11-12 April, GoSS ministers voted to postpone the census in the South. This decision came less than 24 hours after GoSS President Salva Kiir publicly encouraged Southerners to participate in the census and asked churches to preach a message of census participation on Sunday, 13 April. SPLM officials cited the following reasons for postponement: exclusion of questions on ethnicity and religion on census questionnaires, inadequate security and NCP incitement in multiple locations such as Malakal, Jonglei, Bentiu, Warap, Lakes, Equatoria and Abyei (although Abyei is technically not in the south, yet, per the CPA),the alleged blocking of IDP returnees to the South by the SAF, and the start of the rains (refs B, C, D). ¶4. (U) GNU President Omar al-Bashir publicly slammed the SPLM for its decision on 12 April. Press reports indicate that the Director of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Yasin Abdeen, will meet with the Population Census Council in the next two days in Khartoum to discuss whether the North will proceed with the census given the South's extra-constitutional pull-out. -------------- ESTIMATING THE DAMAGE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Upon learning that the GoSS Council of Ministers had voted to postpone the census in the South, Chairman Isaiah Chol Aruai of the Southern Sudan Commission for the Census, Statistics, and Evaluation (SSCCSE) was "devastated." O 12 April, the Chairman wrote letters to the governors and statistical directors of the southern states asking for them to call back all enumerators (all 11,000 of them) and census material. This message has already reached the state level and enumerators have begun to return to their homes. ¶6. (U) On 12 April, UNFPA staff in Juba hurriedly put together a brief report on the technical and financial implications of postponing the census in the South. To date, the GNU, the GoSS and donors have spent approximately USD 68.8 million on preparation for the census in the South. Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) resources were entirely committed to procurement, delivery and distribution of questionnaires and enumerator training. Some GNU funds were already paid out to census enumerators upon deployment. A significant portion of GoSS funds were used for advocacy. If the census is delayed in the South and goes forward in the North, the bulk of those resources would be wasted as a national census would not be possible. While maps produced for the census will be useful for other purposes, most pre-enumeration products do not serve other purposes. If the North and South agreed on a new census date without changing the questionnaire, current questionnaires and training materials could be re-used as they do not reference enumeration dates. KHARTOUM 00000566 002 OF 003 -------------- -------------- DARFUR REBEL LEADERS SUPPORT THE SPLM'S DECISION -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) SLA leader Abdel Wahid al-Nur and JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein Adam have applauded the SPLM's decision to postpone the census. SLM leader Minni Minnawi has also spoken out previously against the census (septel). This comes as no surprise, as the region's largest rebel movements have never been in support of conducting the census this April and are capitalizing on the South's move to justify their own reasons for postponing the event. These reasons include widespread displacement, the fear that third-country Arabs will be counted as Darfurians, insecurity, and the belief that a political solution to Darfur must come before a census or elections (refs d and e). -------------- DONORS REACT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) On 12 April in Juba, CG Datta called together the international donor community to develop a joint donor statement on the GoSS decision to delay the census. The community supported presenting a unified front to the GoSS on this issue and requested a meeting with GoSS President Salva Kiir to express concern about census postponement in the South and to plead with the GoSS to reverse its decision. Donors demarched GoSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng and GoSS Undersecretary in the Ministry of Regional Affairs Dr. Cirino Hiteng Ofuho on 12 April. They expressed concern that the GoSS decision could have negative impacts for the implementation of the CPA and urged the GoSS to move forward with the census despite present challenges. Donors emphasized the large amount of financial, logistical, and human resources invested by the international community in the Southern Sudan census effort and expressed concern that these efforts would be futile if the census is postponed. They further warned that this delay played squarely into the NCP's hands, handing them the opportunity to cast the SPLM as the party that first abrogated a major CPA milestone. The Norwegians specifically warned the Minister that this decision might also discourage donors from attending the upcoming Donors Consortium planned to be held soon in Oslo. Minister Biong Deng was somber and stated that he understood the donors' position and said he would speak with Kiir to see if a meeting could be arranged. Biong Deng requested a joint statement, which donors provided to him. ¶9. (SBU) CG Juba spoke with Minister Luka Biong Deng again on 13 April. Minister Biong Deng said that at the Council of Ministers meeting he argued forcefully for going forward with the census, but was outvoted. He confessed that he knew that the USG/joint donor position was the right one, but he believes the decision will not be reversed. ¶10. (SBU) In an ambassadorial dinner on 12 April, AEC Chairman Derek Plumbly and SRSG Qazi said that they had both spoken with Salva Kiir in the past 72 hours and had been assured by him of the GoSS' unenthusiastic, but real participation in the census. CDA Fernandez urged both to provide "a graceful way out for the SPLM to back out of this political mistake", if they are willing to do so. Both CDA Fernandez and SRSG Qazi spoke to Presidential Advisor Mustafa Othman Ismail to urge a relatively measured, low-key response by the NCP to the GOSS decision. The NCP's public criticism after a late-night emergency meeting was relatively muted. On 13 April, the EC is convening an ambassadorial-level discussion on the census with SRSG Ashraf Qazi to determine how to influence the GoSS to reverse its decision, while the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) will also be mobilized. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The GoSS' bombshell decision to "postpone" the census in the South just three days before the nation-wide census makes it appear as though the SPLM is abrogating its commitment to the CPA, and effectively surrenders the moral high ground to the NCP. The SPLM's move plays squarely into the NCP's hands. The NCP is already claiming that it is ready and willing to implement this key CPA benchmark. The blame for its nation-wide failure will rest with the SPLM. It is even more embarrassing coming just one day after FVP Salva Kiir's call for widespread southern participation in the census. ¶12. (SBU) The GoSS' decision also shows that the SPLM suffers from deep internal fissures among high-ranking party leadership which threaten the ability of the party to be an effective player against the NCP. The SPLM's constant waffling over whether to boycott or not, President Kiir's statement encouraging all Southerners to participate, and the GoSS Council of Minister's vote immediately KHARTOUM 00000566 003 OF 003 following to delay the census raises questions about both Kiir's leadership of the party on critical issues and internal intrigue between the party's "unionists" and "separatists". Generally, SPLM leaders in the GNU seemed to have been more positive about the census than those in the GOSS. We have already seen similar flip-flops in SPLM strategy on the electoral law, which has complicated its passage. ¶13. (SBU) While we can understand that the SPLM is nervous about a census result showing less than thirty percent of Sudan's population in the South, and the possible implications this would have for their strength vis-`-vis the NCP before and after elections, a calculation to deviate from the CPA by postponing the census is even riskier, as it undermines the path of full CPA implementation - which is the surest path to protecting southern interests. It also plays into the hands of an NCP happy to see international attention diverted to the missteps of its rival. FERNANDEZ