MINAWI ON DIVIDED CHADIAN SUPPORT FOR REBELS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000564 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND AF/C ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU CD SUBJECT: MINAWI ON DIVIDED CHADIAN SUPPORT FOR REBELS, DARFUR SECESSION, AND CENSUS DELAY REF: A. NDJAMENA 00123 ¶B. NDJAMENA 00126 ¶C. NDJAMENA 00127 KHARTOUM 00000564 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and ( d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In a wide-ranging conversation on April 12, Senior Assistant to the President Minni Minawi discussed the emergence of two competing streams of Chadian support for Darfur's rebel movements--one led by Dausa Deby and focused on recruiting SLM fighters to augment the URF--and another led by Intelligence Chief Mohammed Chaibo. Minawi also discussed President Bashir's growing frustration with the Darfur issue and his alleged readiness to allow Darfur's secession, as well as the unfeasibility of the census in Darfur, particularly in light of the postponement called by the Government of Southern Sudan. Deby's support for the URF over JEM may be a pragmatic response to fears that a Sudanese offensive in West Darfur will weaken JEM and deprive N'djamena of a needed backer should Chadian rebels launch a new offensive. Minawi's continued opposition to the census is consistent with the stance of every major rebel movement and the majority of Darfur's population, and we should expect an up-tick in violence if the census proceeds in the region. End summary. -------------- CHADIAN GOVERNMENT SPLIT ON JEM VERSUS URF -------------- ¶2. (C) Confirming other reports (reftels),Senior Assistant to the President and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Chairman Minni Minawi told Poloff on April 12 that Dausa Deby, the influential brother of President Idriss Deby and long-standing Chadian interlocutor with the Darfur rebel movements, has joined Defense Minister Mohammed Ali Nasour to back the United Revolutionary Front (URF) over the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). By contrast, Chadian intelligence chief Mohammed Ismail Chaibo and the national police commissioner are diverting the bulk of support to JEM. In addition to funneling weapons and money to the URF, Dausa Deby and Nasour have been active in recruiting fighters from the various factions of the SLM and from the IDP camps in Darfur to augment URF forces, said Minawi. Assertive Chadian operatives are even attempting to recruit from within Minawi's own faction, spurring him to lodge a complaint with Dausa Deby six days earlier. Deby denied the accusations, and Minawi claimed that these recruitment efforts have "not taken away even one of my guys." -------------- Bashir Tired of Darfur -------------- ¶3. (C) The increasingly fractious political environment in Darfur, Chadian meddling, and international pressure has pushed President Bashir to complete frustration, reported Minawi. He said that, in a recent meeting with Bashir, the President had declared that "once UNAMID deploys, we'll give up Darfur." Asked whether this meant that Bashir has accepted independence for Darfur as inevitable or instead intends to delay UNAMID deployment in order to prevent such a development, Minawi said he interpreted the remark as the former. (Note: Bashir's comment echoes similar reports that have emerged in Khartoum in recent months that a growing number of the Arab elite no longer wish to expend the energy and money to fight political battles with the peripheral areas and are privately--if not publicly--content to see Southern Sudan and Darfur break away from Sudan's central regions as long as Khartoum can hold on to its oil-producing areas, many of which are in the South. End note.) -------------- Support for SPLM Position on Census -------------- ¶4. (C) As if to illustrate the political pressures that complicate governance of Sudan, Minawi then said that he had learned from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) that the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) intended to "call off" the census in Southern Sudan scheduled to begin KHARTOUM 00000564 002.2 OF 002 April 15 (septel). Minawi restated his previous position that the census should not move forward in Darfur. Given the likelihood that IDPs and refugees will not be counted, he predicted that a flawed census will inaccurately reflect an Arab majority in Darfur. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) While Minawi would have no reason to fabricate claims that Dausa Deby is spearheading efforts to recruit members for Darfur rebel groups from within Minawi's movement, he is downplaying the likelihood of Dausa's success, given the paucity of resources available to Minawi to maintain loyalty within his ranks. Deby's real motives remain obtuse but the result is clear: strong Chadian material support for Darfur's rebel movements, many of which specialize in highway robbery and looting humanitarian aid shipments rather than fighting the Sudanese Army. However, support for the URF may be a pragmatic response to fears that a Sudanese offensive in West Darfur will weaken JEM and deprive N'djamena of a key backer should Chadian rebels launch a new offensive. Minawi's continued opposition to the census is consistent with the stance of every major rebel movement and the majority of the local population, all of whom are likely to seize on the GoSS' recent announcement to demand a similar postponement in Darfur. If the census nonetheless moves forward in Darfur, we should expect an up-tick in violence. ¶6. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. FERNANDEZ